1. Rural transformation and nutrition transition: Same pathways, different speeds?
Will Masters
Friedman School of Nutrition Science & Policy
and Department of Economics, Tufts University
With Winnie Bell and Keith Lividini, PhD candidates at Tufts University
CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets
Workshop on Rural Transformation in the 21st Century
Vancouver, BC – 28 July 2018

2. Rural transformation and nutrition transition: Same pathways, different speeds?
All data shown are national totals
Aim is “factfulness” (Rosling), to see both forest and trees

3. Data visualization reveals global patterns
Three kinds of visualization:
(1) Year-to-year changes over time, by region
The ag-nut transition from starchy staples to other foods
The rural transformation from falling to rising farm sizes
(2) Preston curves, for Africa vs RoW, 1990s vs 2010s
Agriculture as a share of employment
Child stunting as a measure of health outcomes
(3) Lorenz curves of global inequality, 1970 vs 2010
Agricultural resources (cropland harvested per rural person)
Food and nutrient consumption (units per capita)
Then conclusions, and implications for today’s workshop

4. Let’s start with something we all know
Slides for PIM workshop at ICAE
23-30 October 2012
Let’s start with something we all know
Agricultural “revolutions” are slow, cumulative changes
Irrigation, fertilizer, improved cereal varieties,
Africa did not really begin its
green revolution until the 1990s
Data shown are FAOSTAT estimates, from national statistics of UN member countries

5. Slides for PIM workshop at ICAE
The nutrition transition pulls agriculture
from more food to different foods
Data shown are from FAO Food Balance Sheets, downloaded 14 July
Europe includes all of the former Soviet Union.

6. Slides for PIM workshop at ICAE
23-30 October 2012
Agricultural and food systems develop around farming as a family enterprise
Large enterprises arise due to scale economies in manufacturing and distribution, for both farm inputs and the food industry
Agribusinesses (seed multiplication, fertilizer & chemicals, machinery)
Farming remains a family operation,
with exceptions for immediate processing (e.g. sugar, tea) and confined operations (e.g. chickens)
Input suppliers
Family farms
Food companies (ingredients, processing, distribution & sales)
Food industries
Consumer diets

7. Slides for PIM workshop at ICAE
The speed and direction of rural change depends on labor/land ratios and rural population growth relative to urbanization
Number of people (billions)
>50% urban in 2008
“peak rural” is 2022
Data shown are author’s calculations from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision, from

8. Slides for PIM workshop at ICAE
Africa’s rural population will keep growing for several decades
Number of people (billions)
Over 50% urban in 2040
World’s fastest total population growth
Rural population still rising
past 2050!
World’s fastest urban population growth,
but from a small base
Data shown are author’s calculations from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision, from

9. Slides for PIM workshop at ICAE
The rise and then fall of rural populations drives agricultural transformation
Number of people (billions)
Data shown are author’s calculations from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision, from

10. Rural population growth rates reveal differences between countries,
and are an important aspect of success stories
Data shown are author’s calculations from UN World Urbanization Prospects, 2014 Revision, from

11. Rural population growth ensures that
a large fraction of African workers are farming
Ag’s share of the workforce
has remained much higher
in Africa than elsewhere
and did not shift down
from 1991 to 2010
Reprinted from W.A. Masters, N.Z. Rosenblum and R.G. Alemu, Agricultural transformation, nutrition transition and food policy in Africa. J. of Development Studies, 54(5):

12. The big structural shift at each income level
is towards taller children
Africa’s stunting rates are higher than others
but have benefited from innovation in maternal & child health
Reprinted from W.A. Masters, N.Z. Rosenblum and R.G. Alemu, Agricultural transformation, nutrition transition and food policy in Africa. J. of Development Studies, 54(5):

13. Slides for PIM workshop at ICAE
Another approach to structural change is through Lorenz Curves
If harvested land area were distributed equally among all rural people, the Lorenz curve would be a diagonal line
Thinner, lighter curve is 1970
From 1970 to 2010, the global distribution of harvested land area per rural person became more unequal
Thicker, darker curve is 2010
at the top, among land-rich countries
India and China switched places in the global distribution of farmland/rural person
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

14. Slides for PIM workshop at ICAE
We can see countries’ position in the global distribution through a Parade chart
1970
2010
By 2010, African countries (in light green) are no longer land abundant.
Some are among the world’s
most land-scarce countries.
India and China switched places in the global distribution of farmland/rural person
Global mean (line of perfect equality)
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

15. Slides for PIM workshop at ICAE
Diet quality (e.g. consumption of protein)
has become more equal
China rose from below to above the global median
This will be replaced by a figure from Keith so that all food visuals come from GENuS
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

16. Slides for PIM workshop at ICAE
Diet quality (e.g. consumption of protein)
has become more equal
1970
The “poverty gap” in protein consumption has become smaller
2010
This will be replaced by a figure from Keith so that all food visuals come from GENuS
Global mean (line of perfect equality)
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

17. Slides for PIM workshop at ICAE
Consumption of animal-sourced foods has become much more equal
African countries (in light green) are among those with the least access to animal-sourced foods
This will be replaced by a figure from Keith so that all food visuals come from GENuS
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

18. Slides for PIM workshop at ICAE
Consumption of animal-sourced foods has become much more equal
This will be replaced by a figure from Keith so that all food visuals come from GENuS
African countries (in light green) are increasingly among those with the least access
to animal-sourced foods
The “poverty gap” in animal-source foods consumption is smaller but still quite big
Global mean (line of perfect equality)
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

19. Slides for PIM workshop at ICAE
Consumption of vitamin A
has also become more equal
But increased equality in vitamin A consumption has occurred only in vitamin-A rich countries
Countries with below-median consumption have had no increase in their share of global vitamin A
Keith
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

20. Slides for PIM workshop at ICAE
Consumption of vitamin A
has also become more equal
Keith
Closure of the “poverty gap” in vitamin A consumption has occurred here
There is still a large gap among countries with
low vitamin A consumption
Global mean (line of perfect equality)
Source: W.A. Masters, W. Bell and K. Lividini, Inequities in global agriculture, dietary intake and health outcomes (working paper, forthcoming).

21. Implications for CGIAR research on Policies, Institutions and Markets
We must avoid misleading generalizations, but it can be helpful to see the world in stylized ways:
Stable rural population, most ag is large farms
Stable rural population, most ag is large farms
Near peak or falling rural population, small farm sizes that can now expand
Rising rural population, most farmers have shrinking land area
Stable rural population, most ag is large farms
Stable rural population, most ag is large farms

22. Implications for CGIAR research on Policies, Institutions and Markets
We must avoid misleading generalizations, but it can be helpful to use typologies:
Continent:
Agriculture:
Africa
(previously other regions)
South Asia
East & SE Asia
Europe, N. America and other early-growth regions
Farm workforce
(Driven by demographic history, urbanization and migration opportunities)
Rising
(from a low base)
Near peak
(previously rising)
Falling
(peaked recently)
Stable
(previous falling)
Innovations needed
(Direction of change driven by trends in quality and quantity of land, water and other resources per worker in farm households, driving labor intensity and mechanization)
Shrinking average farm sizes implies that more labor-intensive techniques are needed; land becomes more valuable and may be consolidated by elites in a few large farms, squeezing remaining smallholders onto even smaller farms
Farms no longer shrinking but have been fragmented by history of falling land-labor ratios; farmers are still poor but often gain political power at this time, and may get rapid improvement in public services
Opportunities for some farmers to expand by taking over neighbors’ land depends on tenure rules; flexibility permits adjustment in land use to allow mechanization and changing mix of outputs and inputs
Farm sizes no longer expanding on average, but may keep expanding in remote hinterlands (where farming is full-time work) while shrinking in multifunctional areas (where farming is a part-time activity)

23. Rural transformation and nutrition transition: Same pathways, different speeds?
Africa is increasingly the center of agricultural and nutritional deprivation
Falling farm sizes, while other regions see stable or rising land area per rural resident
But also increasing diversity among African countries
(plus great variation within countries, not shown here)
Agriculture and nutrition differ in recent trajectories
Agricultural resources (harvested area) have become more unequal
Diets (e.g. protein, ASFs, vitamin A) have become less unequal
…but the most deprived have seen little increase in their share of global totals
Global visualizations of a single development pathway reveals rather than masks local diversity
Seeing Africa’s commonalities reveals diversity within it
Seeing shared pathways aligns expectations, and reveals diverse obstacles to be overcome