1. Food Security in China: Production vs. Trade & Environment
LEAD-China
Cohort-10
March 15, 2004
2018/11/9

2. Outline Food Security in China Case Study What is Food Security
2018/11/9

3. What is Food Security?
Access by all people at all times to enough food for an active, healthy life (World Bank)
All people at all times have both physical and economic access to the basic food they need (FAO Committee on World Food Security)
Food security exists when all people, at all time, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food for a healthy and active life (World Food Summit)
2018/11/9

4. What is Food Security?
Stability
Availability
Access
2018/11/9

5. Food Security in China General Facts (1)
Nearly 70% of the population live in the rural areas
Arable land gradually decreases due to urbanization, desertification and land retirement
2018/11/9

6. Food Security in China General Facts (2)
Traditional perception of “no agriculture no stability, no industry no wealth”
Regarding food security as a central concern and setting the rate of grain self-sufficiency at 95%
2018/11/9

7. Food Security in China
Grain Production （ ）
2018/11/9

8. Key Factors of Production Increase——
Food Security in China
Key Factors of Production Increase——
Institutional: household responsibility system, State procurement price lift, Grain circulation system reform
Technological: high-yield varieties, irrigation improvement, flood control
Fiscal: inputs, land reclamation, infrastructure
2018/11/9

9. China’s commitments to WTO (1)
Food Security in China
China’s commitments to WTO (1)
TRQ for major cereals and some other important commodities
A “tariff-only” import regime for other agricultural products with significant reduction of tariffs
2018/11/9

10. China’s commitments to WTO (2)
Food Security in China
China’s commitments to WTO (2)
Immediate stop of using export subsidies
Capping the domestic support within agreed de minimis level
2018/11/9

11. China’s commitments to WTO (3)
Food Security in China
China’s commitments to WTO (3)
Compliance to the terms of SPS/TBT agreements
Gradual opening agriculture-related services to foreign firms
2018/11/9

12. Food Security in China Grain Import (1978-2002)
Note: Left scale for commercial grain and total output of grain crops; right scale for grain imported.
2018/11/9

13. Impact of Grain Import on Domestic Production
Food Security in China
Impact of Grain Import on Domestic Production
Comparative disadvantages in grain prices
Falling grain price as a result of trade liberalization
Shrinking farmer’s enthusiasm on grain production
2018/11/9

14. Food Security in China Long-term prospects
Growth of agricultural import is likely to surpass that of export
However, China’s demand for importing is unlikely to grow very large
Stagnated demand for food products
Limited affordability to high-value imports by a majority of the Chinese consumers
Improved competitiveness of domestic products
High costs for penetrating inland markets
2018/11/9

15. Environment against Grain Production
Food Security in China
Environment against Grain Production
Water shortages and contamination
Arable land quantity and quality dwindling
Natural disaster
Quality of agricultural products declining
2018/11/9

16. Is Food Secured in China?
Food Security in China
Is Food Secured in China?
2018/11/9

17. Is Food Secured in China? (1)
Food Security in China
Is Food Secured in China? (1)
Annual grain production was usually between 450 to 510 million tons, per capita grain possession was around 400 kg
Grain production increases mainly due to the rise of per unit yield, not the extension of sown areas
2018/11/9

18. Is Food Secured in China? (2)
Food Security in China
Is Food Secured in China? (2)
Grain ration consumption decreases due to urbanization and income augment, from 1990 reduced by 2% annually
Feed grain consumption increases 1.2 times from 1990 to 2000
In the coming 30 years, China will be able to achieve food security within the current resource allocation
2018/11/9

19. Conclusion Food security is the central concern in China
Trade liberalization will influence domestic grain production and farmer’s income
Water resource is the key factor of grain production
China can feed its population in the future 30 years
2018/11/9

20. “Grain for Green” Policy
Case Study
“Grain for Green” Policy
Introduction
China has continuously increased the arable land for feeding the huge population for the past five decades
Through reclamation of wasteland, wetland and forestland
2018/11/9

21. Case Study “Grain for Green” Policy
Consequence: Degradation of eco-system
——Deforestation
——Desertification
——Narrowed bio-diversity
2018/11/9

22. “Grain for Green” Policy
Case Study
“Grain for Green” Policy
Aim
——turning the fragile crop/grazing lands into pasture or forests
Reason
——awakened public awareness of quality of life
——oversupply of grain in the domestic market
Measure
——providing participating farmers with grains and money as compensation for income forgone
2018/11/9

23. “Grain for Green” Policy
Case Study
“Grain for Green” Policy
Started in 1999 in Sichuan, Shaanxi and Gansu
25 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities involved in 2003
About 7 m ha of low-yield land returned to forest and pasture from 1999 to 2003
2018/11/9

24. Case Study Overproduction and Land Reclamation Environmental
Degradation
Land Reclamation
Grain for Green
2018/11/9

25. Discussion domestic production or international trade?
Under the current resources constraints, in a bid to achieve food security by bridging the grain gap, a nation should rely on——
domestic production or international trade?
2018/11/9