1. MOVE Summit 2018 – Introductory Remarks
Dr Gregor Matthies

2. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) – key theses
4_84
Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) – key theses
Global BEV penetration will reach ~12% (India ~5%) by and likely to exceed 50% (India 20-25%) by 2040
By 2040, ~40% of all vehicles on the road in China will be BEVs
Global internal combustion engine (ICE) peak in car sales will be reached by 2023, in car stock by 2035
Total cost of ownership (TCO) parity between ICEs and BEVs will be reached around 2022/23
By 2025, OEMs will earn the same margins on BEV and ICE
By 2025, BEV driving range and charging time will match ICE
Battery cell cost will decline by 25%, reaching $80/kWh by and $70/kWh by 2025

3. An alien coming to Delhi (or any large city) seeing…
11_88
An alien coming to Delhi (or any large city) seeing…
… mankind burning its most scarce resource with a ~30% yield …
… for moving ~1.5 tons of metal and on average 1.2 passengers …
… with an average speed of 20 mph for about 90 minutes per day …
… polluting its precious habitats
Would you not call this kind of crazy???

4. So overall, mobility must see some drastic changes
2_84 3_84 4_84
So overall, mobility must see some drastic changes
Achieving climate targets: Requirement to reduce CO2 emissions of private transport by >80% to reach the target of a maximum of 2°C global warming by 2040
Finite nature of fossil fuels reserves: Scarcity and the volatility in fuel prices whilst at the same time rising demand for individual mobility (China, India etc.)
Urbanization of the world‘s population (>75% living in major cities by 2050): changes in mobility behavior and the need for local “zero emission" policies in large cities
New technologies for generating energy: Possibility to produce electricity CO2-free and at marginal costs (photo-thermal power stations, nuclear fusion, …)
Source: Bain Research, DOE, UN Habitat, IBM Study "Smart Cities"

5. At approx. 80% German car density
2_84
Rising prosperity in the emerging countries versus scarce fossil energy reserves
Fossil energy reserves are becoming increasingly scarce und expensive…
…while the number of cars keep on rising
At approx. 80% German car density
Source: Bain literature research, ACEA, US Energy Information Administration, Oil & Gas Journal

6. E-mobility will be a “system’s change” for good!
19_84
E-mobility will be a “system’s change” for good!
“PUSH”
“PULL”
Economics
Technology
Legislation
Consumer mindset
“Killer” products
Cost-of-ownership
“There is no way around -we must do it”
“It’s the better solution and fun as well“

7. overall_0_ columns_1_
Base case: Global EV penetration to be 15% by 2026; 25% in Europe, 5% in India
Global
India
China
Europe
Note: BEV: Battery EV; PHEV: Plug-in Hybrid EV; FHEV: Full Hybrid EV; MHEV: Mild Hybrid EV
Source: Bloomberg; Analyst Reports; Bain EV model

8. Current EV adoption in India Adoption drivers and inhibitors
7_85
overall_0_ columns_1_
Indian market: Currently, EV adoption in India is low; strong push by govt. in recent times to drive affordability
Current EV adoption in India
Adoption drivers and inhibitors
Govt. push
Target to sell only electric cars by 2032, push expected for 2Ws as well
Subsidy of Rs. 22K for an advanced battery powered vehicle
Declining battery prices
Li-ion battery cost expected to fall by ~45% by 2020
Introduction of competitive electric vehicles
For e.g., in 2W, Products like Ather, Hero Electric Photon expected to boost demand
Additionally, TVS has just announced launch of electric scooter in H1 2018
Poor charging infrastructure
Source: Bloomberg; Analyst reports; IEA; Lit Search; Bain EV model; Bain analysis