1. Fragility – Implications for Peace, Security, and Sustainable Development |
Development Dialogue
James Michel - April 16, 2018

2. Why This Report?
It reminds that fragility poses a threat to increased human security and well being.
It describes the international response to that threat - fragmented, uncertain, and often ineffective.
It explores how we can better manage fragility and promote resilience, thereby furthering peace, security, and sustainable development.

3. Background ARMED CONFLICTS, 1946-2014
Source: Uppsala Data Conflict Program/Peace Research Institute Oslo Armed Conflict Dataset.

4. Background
Source: Uppsala Data Conflict Program One-Sided Violence Dataset.

5. Background TRENDS IN TERRORISM, 1970-2016
Source: National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), 2017, Global Terrorism Database. Retrieved from

6. TRENDS IN DEMOCRACY & AUTOCRACY
Background
TRENDS IN DEMOCRACY & AUTOCRACY
Source: “Global Democracy and Autocracy, ,” Polity IV Project, Center for Systemic Peace.

7. GDP PER CAPITA BY REGIONS (1820-2014)
Background
GDP PER CAPITA BY REGIONS ( )
Graph is a representation of data from Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, 2001.

8. Characteristics of Fragility
Poor governance
Limited institutional capacity
Low social cohesion
Weak legitimacy
Contribute to:
Impeded or eroded social contract
Diminished resilience
Insecurity, poverty and deprivation
Vulnerability to conflict, forced migration, epidemics, organized crime, and terrorism

9. PEOPLE IN POVERTY: FRAGILE VS STABLE COUNTRIES
 Poverty and Fragility
PEOPLE IN POVERTY: FRAGILE VS STABLE COUNTRIES
Source: Laurence Chandy, Natasha Ledlie, and Veronika Penciakova, The Final Countdown: Prospects for
Ending Extreme Poverty by 2030 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2013), 14.

10. Peace, Terrorism, and Fragility
COMPARATIVE RANKINGS, 2017
FRAGILE STATES INDEX
(1-10)
GLOBAL PEACE INDEX (OUT OF 163)
GLOBAL TERRORISM INDEX
SOUTH SUDAN
160 14
SOMALIA
158 7
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
155 19
YEMEN
159 6
SUDAN 18
SYRIA
163 4
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO
153 13
CHAD
135 34
AFGHANISTAN
162 2
IRAQ
161 1

11. Definitions
USAID – Fragility is the extent to which state-society relations fail to produce outcomes that are considered to be effective and legitimate.
UNDP – Fragile contexts include those countries and territories experiencing armed conflict, emerging from armed conflict, or affected by acute political, social and economic vulnerability and susceptible to chronic forms of organized criminal violence.
Fragility Study Group – Fragility is the absence or breakdown of the of a social contract between people and their government.
World Bank – A fragile state is one having either (a) a composite CPIA rating of 3.2 or less or (b) the presence of a UN and/or regional peacekeeping or peacebuilding mission during the past three years.

12. Better Definitions
Fragility is the combination of exposure to risk and insufficient coping capacity of the state, system, and/or communities to manage, absorb or mitigate those risks.
Fragility [is] when sustainable socio-economic development requires greater emphasis on complementary peacebuilding and statebuilding activities such as building inclusive political settlements, security, justice, jobs, good management of resources, and accountable and fair service delivery.

13. Fragility Study Group Conclusion
Across the U.S. Government, there is no clear or shared view of why, how and when to engage fragile states. These problems are not unique to the United States; no state or international body has fully cracked the fragility code.

14. Lessons Learned
Focus on specific factors that most impede stability and development.
Be sensitive to gaps in local capacity, security, and legitimacy.
Emphasize inclusive local processes to identify what is important, build trust, and maintain local ownership and responsibility.
Recognize that financial and technical assistance cannot substitute for political commitment and a secure environment. Effective measures beyond aid are needed.
Timely action can prevent a crisis. At the same time, transitions from fragility to resilience take a long time.

15. Recommendations for the United States
Mainstream fragility issues in US foreign policy; abandon country labeling; emphasize prevention; integrate in normal channels of diplomacy and cooperation.
Strengthen and streamline early warning and coordination mechanisms  while empowering operating agencies.
Obtain flexible budget authority to enable timely response, adaptation, and continuity of effort.
Invest in human capacity – skills, language, availability for lengthy assignments, career development.
Establish an early warning system.
Provide leadership to strengthen international response: improved New Deal compacts, greater harmonization, productive UN meetings.

16. Update
UN Secretary General Report and High Level General Assembly Session on Sustaining Peace
Steven Pinker, Enlightenment Now
UN and World Bank, Pathways for Peace
Geoffrey Gertz and Homi Kharas, Leave No Country Behind
USAID reorganization, Associate Administer for Relief, Resilience, and Response
Rick Barton, Peace Works
Commission on State Fragility, Growth and Development, Escaping the Fragility Trap

17. Thank You