1. FSNWG Adaptation Learning Programme 29th September 2016
Decision making with a climate lens: Developing the National Seasonal Agricultural Planner in Kenya
What will we present in this session - a user based perspective, evidence on what has been working well, learning for future improvements for CIS
Q&A as we go along
Sticky notes – we need your feedback and questions and will collect at the end
FSNWG
Adaptation Learning Programme
29th September 2016

2. Value of climate information is realised when it:
Is ‘translated’ to relate to local livelihoods, knowledge, experience, levels of uncertainty
Recognises knowledge and capacity of users to:
Understand and adapt to the reality of short term variability & long term climate change
Understand and use forecasts, probabilities for decision making
Generate local climate knowledge
Record & use climate data – contributing to localised / right-scaled information
Value of climate information is realised when it:
Listens and responds to locally expressed needs
And when it informs decisions
Many ways to do this at different timescales. PSP is one
Point 1: Translation means converting the information into forms that can be easily understood in the local context
Point 2: When climate information listens and responds to locally expressed needs, then it is adequately put to use.
Point 3: Key considerations for accessibility include communication in local languages and using communication systems that reach different users (considering technology they have access to e.g. radios, mobiles phones; local communication channels e.g. community meetings, religious gatherings; presentation formats e.g. text only, pictures, graphs, symbols) etc
Point 4, sub-point 4: Localised e.g. using recorded data to develop agro-met. analyses for the local area. It can build up the observational data record and used to downscale met. forecasts
Is accessible to everyone who needs it (communication channels, language…)

3. Why National Seasonal Agricultural Planner?
Bringing together national stakeholders to discuss & interpret seasonal forecasts for decision making on:
National level plans & actions
Support needed and linkages in different counties, agro- climatic zones
Feed into county to community level processes (PSP/CCOF), plans & actions
Began in OND 2014, up to current season
Mention valuing variability and pastoralists
Point 1: Uncertainties and risks are due to climate and other factors that affect their lives and livelihoods
Point 2: Decisions are based on their knowledge, experience, capacity and access to services and resources
Point 3: Climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities, across different timescales, levels and livelihoods
Point 4: indirectly introduces adaptive capacity and the CBA flower

4. Who has been involved? Ministries of
Environment, Mineral Resources and Regional Development Authorities (KMD)
Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries
Mention valuing variability and pastoralists
Point 1: Uncertainties and risks are due to climate and other factors that affect their lives and livelihoods
Point 2: Decisions are based on their knowledge, experience, capacity and access to services and resources
Point 3: Climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities, across different timescales, levels and livelihoods
Point 4: indirectly introduces adaptive capacity and the CBA flower
NDMA, World Vision, FAO, USAID, Gender and Climate Change Network, Transparency International, Acre Africa, Chase Bank, Centaury Microfinance…
Especially useful in discussing agricultural implications of seasonal forecasts with consideration of markets (input supply to sale of produce) & linkage to private sector (insurance, banks…)

5. Contents of National Seasonal Agricultural Planner

6. Seasonal climate outlook
Analogue year - These conditions are similar to those we saw during the short rains of and to a lesser degree 2010.
Mention valuing variability and pastoralists
Point 1: Uncertainties and risks are due to climate and other factors that affect their lives and livelihoods
Point 2: Decisions are based on their knowledge, experience, capacity and access to services and resources
Point 3: Climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities, across different timescales, levels and livelihoods
Point 4: indirectly introduces adaptive capacity and the CBA flower

7. What does it mean for agriculture?
Interpreting agricultural implications for the coming season through reflecting on the:
Past (analogue year)
Seasonal outlook
Mention valuing variability and pastoralists
Point 1: Uncertainties and risks are due to climate and other factors that affect their lives and livelihoods
Point 2: Decisions are based on their knowledge, experience, capacity and access to services and resources
Point 3: Climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities, across different timescales, levels and livelihoods
Point 4: indirectly introduces adaptive capacity and the CBA flower

8. Interpreting climate information for agriculture
Past (analogue year)
Mention valuing variability and pastoralists
Point 1: Uncertainties and risks are due to climate and other factors that affect their lives and livelihoods
Point 2: Decisions are based on their knowledge, experience, capacity and access to services and resources
Point 3: Climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities, across different timescales, levels and livelihoods
Point 4: indirectly introduces adaptive capacity and the CBA flower

9. Interpreting climate information for agriculture
Linked to seasonal forecast
Cropping Advice – Below Normal Rainfall (40% probability over most of Kenya)
Crop types Selection
Agronomy
Pest and diseases
Weather related disasters
Soil and Water conservation
Post -harvest management
Marketing
Other comments
Cereals- eg Maize, wheat, rice, sorghum, millet
Plant early maturing high yielding, hybrid varieties from registered stockists. Contact extension officers to select suitable variety.
Early land preparation and early planting recommended for best results. Farmers should use adequate inputs such as farm yard manure.
Possible cases of streaks, stalk borers, army warms.
Ensure adequate spraying with recommended pesticides.
Dry conditions during flowering may affect yield of crops such as maize
Places with higher rains: Consider enhanced rain and water harvesting and conservation
May not be a serious problem
Commodity prices may go up due to reduced crop production; farmers should enhance food storage for home consumption
Expected Poor rainfall distribution may affect crops yields; consider crop diversification, insurance and other mitigation measures.
Legumes eg beans, cowpeas, grams, groundnuts
Plant early maturing high yielding, hybrid varieties from registered stockists.
Early land preparation and early planting recommended for best results
Possible increased cases of root rots; more pests such as ball worms, thrifts, aphids. Ensure adequate spraying with recommended pesticides.
As above
Poor rainfall distribution may affect crops yields
Mention valuing variability and pastoralists
Point 1: Uncertainties and risks are due to climate and other factors that affect their lives and livelihoods
Point 2: Decisions are based on their knowledge, experience, capacity and access to services and resources
Point 3: Climate change exacerbates vulnerabilities, across different timescales, levels and livelihoods
Point 4: indirectly introduces adaptive capacity and the CBA flower

10. Where from here? Developing a user based climate information service

11. Actor network map for climate information services ALP, Kenya example
Messages:
multiple actors with complex relationships
National met services can be a bottleneck between global climate science and users
With users at the centre, the role of met services as one service provider among many for realising climate resilience becomes clearer
Developing a service that puts user needs at the heart of the service. How to know what information will be useful? Critical for users not only as recipients of information but the decision makers. Means moving from just producing and disseminating climate information (ref to WB value chain) to providing a service (CIS), which requires:
Consideration of the diversity of users at national to local level and their dynamic decision making contexts (influenced by vulnerabilities, capacities, socio-economics etc.).
CIS providers to have a good understanding of actors’ social and institutional linkages and governance processes – and relate to these so as to generate demand for climate information and ensure it is meaningful, useful and usable to the range of users.
Linkages, collaboration and sustained engagement between actors - producers, intermediaries and users
November 9, 2018

12. User based CIS value chain - actors

13. User based CIS value chain – multiplier functions
November 9, 2018

14. The multiplier function
Actors working in: policy; projects or programmes on adaptation, DRR, development, resilience, agriculture FSN, others; Government sectoral departments; Met services; NGOs at any level
Puts changing user information needs & knowledge at the center
Facilitates linkages across the chain to create and add value at each stage
Ensures learning is integrated across the value chain
Supports two-way communication/ feedback between users, producers and intermediaries, building trust and confidence
Motivates enabling institutional frameworks and resource flows for sustained multi-stakeholder engagement in CIS
Recognition of this role is critical to effective climate information services for climate resilient/smart agric. & all sectors
Facilitates linkages/ relationships across actors and functions to create and add value at each stage. Continued convening, engagement, Dialogue, monitoring systems e.g. CARE (NGO) involvement in PSP, linking adaptation and resilience to climate change with livelihoods, development and risk management
Puts changing user information needs & knowledge at the center – Collective interpretation with users, support use of CI with other information (e.g. markets, NRM) and sector processes and opportunities (integration)
Ensures learning is integrated across the value chain – help actors reflect and act on what it takes to develop decision relevant and context specific climate data and information for different users . Capacity building of different actors (e.g. PSP process principles as will be in the findings)
Support two-way communication/ feedback between users, producers and intermediaries – facilitating dialogue, building trust, tracking climate informed decisions and impact
Motivates enabling institutional frameworks and resource flows for sustained multi-stakeholder engagement in CIS. Advocating for resource flows

15. Thank you
Coming soon “Climate information for agricultural decision-making and planning in rural communities: A Guide to Participatory Scenario Planning”
ALP is supported by