1. The Development of Strategy
National National Security
Goals Strategy
Global Environment Technology
(threats/opportunities)

2. “The Absolute Weapon”
Bernard Brodie, The Absolute Weapon, 1946

3. First Nuclear Age, 1945-90s Bipolarity Deterrence Arms Control
Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present
Bipolarity
balance
Deterrence
vulnerability
Arms Control
Managing rivalry
Rationality
Multipolarity
asymmetry
Deterrence
missile defense
Arms Control
coercion
Rationality

4. First Nuclear Age 1945-90s Bipolarity Deterrence Arms Control
balance
Deterrence
vulnerability
Arms Control
Managing rivalry
Rationality

5. 1. Bipolarity An Arms Race US and USSR rough equality Balance of power
Spiral theory
US and USSR rough equality
Balance of power
Triad
Bombers
ICBMs
SLBMs

6. Strategic Bombers

7. ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

8. SLBM – Submarine-launched Ballistic Missile

9. Launch Tube Hatches on USS Alabama

10. Two Arms Races by 1960s
Offense-offense
Offense-defense

11. Early ABM Systems
Johnson Administration: “Sentinel”

12. 2. Deterrence
Strategies of Deterrence
Warfighting
Assured Destruction

13. 1. Warfighting Deterrence =
Ability to threaten Soviet military targets
Ability to fight a nuclear war
JFK: Flexible Response
Nixon: Limited Nuclear Options: NSDM-242
Carter: Countervailing Strategy: PD-59
Reagan: Prevailing Strategy: NSDD-13

14. MIRVs
Multiple Independently Targeted Reentry Vehicles

15. 2. Assured Destruction Deterrence = Second Strike capability
“Balance of Terror”
Albert Wohlstetter, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 37, No. 2 (January 1959):

16. Soviet First Strike: Successful: USSR “wins”
US Second strike US
USSR

17. US Second Strike Capability
Soviet First Strike
US Second strike
Scenario: Everyone Dies US
USSR

18. US and Soviet Nuclear Arsenals
ICBM SLBM Bombers launchers/warheads launchers/warheads launchers/warheads
US Strategic Nuclear Forces
1950
462
330
1960 12 32
1515
3083
1970
1054
1244
656
1552
390
3339
1980
2144
512
5056
376
3568
1990
1000
2440
608
5312
267
4648
2000
550
432
3456 73
1376
2013
450
500
288
1152 60
300

19. US and Soviet Nuclear Arsenals
USSR/Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces
ICBM SLBM Bombers launchers/warheads launchers/warheads launchers/warheads
1956 40
120
1960 2 30
121
354
1970
1472
317
287
157
568
1980
1338
5362
990
1558
1990
1297
6857
908
2900
127
1402
2000
756
3540
348
1576
112
790
2013
326
1050
160
624 72
810

20. Sources:
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Nuclear Notebook
Natural Resources defense Council Archive of Nuclear Data

21. 3. Arms Control Management of the arms race Cut costs
Increase predictability
Increase transparency
“Essential equivalence”

22. Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties
Cold War Era
SALT I
Interim Agreement on Offensive Arms 1972
ABM Treaty 1972
SALT II Agreement 1979

23. Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties
End of the Cold War
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) I 1991
START II 1993

24. Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties
Post-Cold War Era
Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002
New START Treaty 2010

25. Critics of Arms Control
Soviet ICBM Superiority?
“Window of Vulnerability” US
launchers
warheads
Soviet
Titan 54
SS-17
108
432
Minuteman II
450
SS-18
308
3,080
Minuteman III
550
1,650
SS-19
330
1,980
Total
1,054
2,154
746
5,492

26. Solutions to Window of Vulnerability
Nixon to Reagan
1. Mobile Missiles
MX Multiple Protective Shelters system

27. Solutions to Window of Vulnerability
Reagan to present 2. Missile Defense Reagan’s SDI speech, March 23, 1983

28. 4. Rationality The logic of parity/equality The logic of deterrence
The logic of management of the arms race
STRATEGIC STABILITY