1. Why Does Population Growth Vary Among Regions?
Chapter 2 key issue 3
Why Does Population Growth Vary Among Regions?

2. Like population itself, POPULATION GROWTH is not uniformly distributed.

3. Demographers note that growth rates tend to be higher in less developed countries, and lower in more developed countries.
How can we explain this?

4. The Demographic Transition Model (DTM)
Model with four stages that helps to explain the rise and fall of population growth rates over time.
This transition is linear, so it has a specific trajectory and end point.

5. DTM Stage 1: Low Growth
Marked by very high CBR and CDR rates, producing a flat NIR.
No real long-term natural increase
No country presently in Stage 1- only rare and isolated cases.

6. STAGE 1 POPULATION PYRAMID LOW HEIGHT (HIGH CDR- low life expectancy)
WIDE BASE (HIGH CBR)
LOW HEIGHT (HIGH CDR- low life expectancy)

7. Very high natural increase
DTM Stage 2: High Growth
Marked by rapidly declining CDR and continuing high CBR; produces very high NIR.
Very high natural increase
Europe/North America entered stage 2, after the Industrial Revolution (late 1700s).
Africa, Asia, and Latin America entered stage 2 around 1950, as a result of the Medical Revolution (next Key Issue)

8. STAGE 2 POPULATION PYRAMID
WIDE BASE (High CBR)
RISING HEIGHT (Lower CDR, longer life expectancy)

9. DTM Stage 3: Slowing Growth
Marked by rapidly declining CBR, continuing low CDR; slowing NIR
Natural increase slows; less population gain than Stage 2
Gap between CBR and CDR narrows
Most European/North American countries transitioned to Stage 3 during first half of 20th century.

10. STAGE 3 POPULATION PYRAMID
Edges of pyramid become rounded (lowering CBR)
Mid and upper ages become wider (more people surviving longer)

11. DTM Stage 4: Low/No Growth
Marked by low CBD & CDR; low/no NIR
CBR & CDR almost equal
No long-term natural increase

12. STAGE 4 POPULATION PYRAMID
Vertical but uneven sides (Similar CBR/CDR rates)
Older age cohorts quite large

13. Many Stage 4 countries are experiencing a condition known as Zero Population Growth (ZPG). This is when birth rates are equal to death rates.
A TFR of 2.1 produces ZPG.

14. Stage 4 countries have almost no NATURAL growth
Stage 4 countries have almost no NATURAL growth. Instead, most population growth results from immigration.

15. DTM STAGE POP’N PYRAMIDS

16. FIGURE 2-17 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL The demographic transition model consists of four stages.

18. DTM Stage 5 : Declining Population
Some countries have entered what might be Stage 5, where a very low CBR is overtaken by a slightly growing CDR.
Older generations dying-off; few children born to replace them. Negative NIR.

19. STAGE 5 COUNTRIES ARE HIGHLY DEVELOPED, BUT ARE SLOWLY LOSING THEIR POPULATIONS

20. STAGE 5 POPULATION PYRAMIDS Large older cohorts
‘reverse’ pyramid- thinner at base (low CBR)

21. JAPAN is the ultimate example of a State 5 country.
As Japan has become more developed, its people have had ever fewer children; today, its population is in decline.
The population will decline from 127 million (2010) to 95 million (2050) unless rates change
By 2050, most of Japan’s pop’n will be over 50 years old- a dependency ratio nightmare!
Figure 2-28 JAPAN’S CHANGING POPULATION PYRAMIDS Japan’s population pyramid has shifted from a broad base in 1950 to a rectangular shape. In the future, the bottom of the pyramid is expected to contract and the top to expand.

22. In 1950, Aone, Japan’s primary school had 250 students.
Today, it has 6.

23. Many EASTERN EUROPEAN countries are also losing population.
Mostly former Communist countries, these were left economically unstable after the Soviet Union fell, leading women to have fewer children.

24. These places are looking for ways to REDUCE their birth rates.
While Japan and E. Europe are shrinking, many countries are booming in DTM Stage 2.
These places are looking for ways to REDUCE their birth rates.

25. Two Successful Strategies for Lowering Birth Rates
Improving Education and Health Care
Near-direct correlation between education and number of children a woman will have
Once educated, some women will choose career over childrearing
With improved healthcare, more children will survive infancy, so women can have less kids overall.

26. 2.) CONTRACEPTION
Can be effective even in places with limited women’s empowerment/education; immediate result.
Sometimes met with great resistance, because it goes against the cultural or religious beliefs of some.
Political Opposition
Religious Opposition

27. GLOBAL CONTRACEPTIVE USE CHINA HAST HIGHEST RATE OF ANY COUNTRY
FIGURE 2-24 WOMEN USING FAMILY PLANNING More than two-thirds of couples in developed countries use a family-planning method. Family-planning varies widely in developing countries. China reports the world’s highest rate of family planning; the lowest rates are in sub-Saharan Africa.

28. Thomas Malthus ( )
Economist who lived in England during the birth of the Industrial Revolution.
Noticed that the population was increasing rapidly as the death rate fell
Developed theory that the world was headed toward a population disaster- or, more specifically, a massive famine- because the population was increasing faster than the rate of food production.

29. 1798

30. Thomas Malthus ( )
Malthus believed population rises geometrically, while food production rises arithmetically
GEOMETRIC:
1,2,4,8,16…
ARITHMATIC:
1,2,3,4,5,6…..

31. He could not foresee the arrival of Stages 3 & 4.
Malthus’ disaster never happened, however. He lived while the Industrial Revolution was expanding across Europe and America (Stage 2), and assumed that pop’n increase would continue until food crisis enveloped the planet.
He could not foresee the arrival of Stages 3 & 4.

32. Malthus’ fear of growing populations has not gone away.
In the 1960s, as many developing countries entered Stage 2, people again began to worry about an impending disaster. These people were called NEO-MALTHUSIANS
Paul Ehrlich’s book was a best-seller

33. Like Malthus himself, the Neo-Malthusians underestimated the human ability to solve problems. The GREEN REVOLUTION- which we’ll study later- led to a massive expansion of agricultural output.
Even though there were more people, the world had the food to feed them.

34. Those who believe that the environment can support an ever-larger human population support CORNUCOPIAN THEORY.

36. NATALISM
Countries around the world face problems from populations that are either growing too fast, or which are slowly shrinking.
Countries with LOW birthrates try to promote their people to procreate by instituting PRO-NATALIST POLICIES.
Countries with HIGH birthrates try to curb the amount of children being born by instituting ANTI-NATALIST POLICIES.

37. PRO-NATALIST POLICIES

38. Denmark, like many European countries, has a population in decline.
To combat their low birthrate, the Danish government has funded a campaign called ‘Doing It for Denmark’

39. Singapore has a similar idea-
NATIONAL NIGHT

40. ANTI-NATALIST POLICIES

41. India has more than a billion people and a birthrate that remains very high. It will become the most populated country in the world in the coming years.

42. In the 60s and 70s, India tried to lower its birthrate through a program of FORCED STERILIZATION.
This led to a public outcry, and efforts were made ‘voluntary’- thus the gov’t was ineffective at lowering birth rates.

43. China in the 1970s faced a population jumping into the billions
China in the 1970s faced a population jumping into the billions. In order to curb the reproductive habits of its huge populace, its leaders created a controversial law-
The ONE CHILD POLICY

44. UNDER THE ONE CHILD POLICY-
Couples had to APPLY to have a child.
Men could not marry until 22, women until 20.
Having only one child would result in increased social benefits like money from the government, free food, or expanded opportunities.
Having a second child could result in massive fines and a reduction in those social benefits.
Both men and women could receive a large sum of money for undergoing voluntary sterilization.

45. ‘Little Emperor’ Syndrome
Forced to have only one child, many Chinese women aborted female babies, waiting to have a male heir. These children today receive the affection of their entire extended families- ‘little emperors.’