1. Housing Production: Recent Developments and Outlook
Joint Business Management Committees
June 15, 2017
Michael Neal
Senior Economist

2. Macroeconomy: United States
GDP growth about flat since the recession as RFI share grows

3. Single-Family Starts: United States
Growing trend, but below what is considered normal

4. Single-Family Starts
Many of the recovered states didn’t fall as far during the recession

5. Multifamily Starts: United States
Headline recovery has been faster

6. Multifamily Starts
Strong recovery across most states

7. Residential Remodeling
Off of lows

8. Single-Family Starts and Payroll Employment
Visible relationship between production and employment recoveries

9. A “Beveridge Curve” for Housing
Number of renters per available home is elevated

10. Composition of Refinancings
Freddie Mac share of cashout refinancings reaches highest level since recession

11. Single-Family Starts: United States
Growing trend
1,343,000
 “Normal”
2015
713,000
10%
2016
784,000
2017
855,000 9%
2018
961,000
12%
2019
1,076,000
Trough to Current:
Mar 09 = 353,000
Apr 17 = 789,000
+124%

12. Multifamily Housing Starts: United States
Leveling off
331,000
 “Normal”
2015
395,000
12%
2016
392,000
-1%
2017
379,000
-4%
2018
365,000
2019
363,000

13. Single-Family Starts
Long road back to normal

14. Multifamily Starts
Nearly 60% have returned to 100% of average level, but some states lag

15. Residential Remodeling
Growth ahead

16. Thank you Questions? mneal@nahb.org @mneal_econ
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