1. CARNIVAL GAMES WARM UP:
Choose your carnival game groups of 3 or less people
Follow the rubric from the front table (one per group)
Start planning a game name / game idea

2. Purple Pong was a very successful game last semester.
Rules
Players must stand 5 feet away from targets
Players will have 4 golf balls to toss into cups
The golf balls must stay in the cups to count
Prizes
4 Balls = Large Stuffed animal ($5)
3 Balls = Large Candy Bar ($1)
2 Balls = 2 Small pieces of candy ($ .50)
1 Ball = 1 small piece of candy ($.25)
0 Balls = No Prize

3. THEORETICAL PROBABILITY
Theoretical probability: The chances of an outcome based on the setup (dimensions) of the game.
To find the probability of a HIT in the game.
Find the area of the playing board ( L * W)
Find the area of the cup (pi * r2 )
Divide the area of all the cups by the area of the boards (35 cups * 9.62in2 / 590in2 )
Find the probability of a MISS in the Game.
Subtract the percentage of a HIT from 100%
H = 57%
M = 43%

4. THEORETICAL PROBABILITY
Theoretical probability: The chances of an outcome based on the setup (dimensions) of the game.
P(0H) = 3%
P(1H) = 18%
P(2H) = 36%
P(3H) = 32%
P(4H) = 11%

5. THEORETICAL PROBABILITY
Now its your turn to figure out the Theoretical Probability for your game.
Good Luck!!
DO NOT wait until the last minute to work on this project. I will help
Each day we will discuss a new part of the project in detail
Your group should keep working

6. To Find the Theoretical Profit:
Theoretical profit: The average amount of money a person will win in one play.
Remember: The cost to play is $2
Prizes
4 Balls = Large Stuffed animal ($5)
3 Balls = Large Candy Bar ($1)
2 Balls = 2 Small pieces of candy ($ .50)
1 Ball = 1 small piece of candy ($.25)
0 Balls = No Prize
To Find the Theoretical Profit:
Find the probability of each prize
Multiply each prob. by its value
The sum of the values is the T.P.

7. Total loss= $1.10 per person $2 - $1.10 = $0.90 profit
THEORETICAL Profit
Theoretical profit: The average amount of money a person will win in one play.
P(Stuffed Animal) ($5)= (11%) ($5) = $.55
P(Large Candy) ($1) = (32%) ($1) = $.32
P(2 Pieces of Candy) ($.50)= (36%) ($.50) = $.18
P(1 Piece of Candy) ($.25)= (18%) ($.25) = $.05
Total loss= $1.10 per person
$2 - $1.10 = $0.90 profit

8. THEORETICAL Profit
Now its your turn to figure out the Theoretical Profit for your game.
Find your prizes!!!
DO NOT wait until the last minute to work on this project. I will help
Each day we will discuss a new part of the project in detail
Your group should keep working
CARNIVAL DAY is Tuesday October 11 !!!

9. Experimental PROBABILITY
Experimental Probability: The chances of an outcome based attempted trials of the game.
To find the EXP probability of a HIT in the game.
The minimal number of trials is 50
Each shot is a trial
Remember: Each person gets 4 shots, that’s a min of 12.5 people
Record your data
HITS % = # of HITS / Total shots
NOW WE WILL RECORD SOME TRIALS!!!!!

10. Experimental PROBABILITY
Experimental Probability: The chances of an outcome based attempted trials of the game.
P(0H) = (H)0 (M)4
P(1H) = (H)1 (M)3
P(2H) = (H)2 (M)2
P(3H) = (H)3 (M)1
P(4H) = (H)4 (M)0

11. Experimental PROBABILITY
Remember will count the trials before we play the games!
Good Luck!!
DO NOT wait until the last minute to work on this project.
Your group should be working
CARNIVAL DAY is fast approaching!!!

12. To Find the Experimental Profit:
Experimental Profit : The average amount of money earned based on trials of the game.
Remember: The cost to play is $2
Prizes
4 Balls = Large Stuffed animal ($5)
3 Balls = Large Candy Bar ($1)
2 Balls = 2 Small pieces of candy ($ .50)
1 Ball = 1 small piece of candy ($.25)
0 Balls = No Prize
To Find the Experimental Profit:
Find the probability of each prize
Multiply each prob. by its value
The sum of the values is the Ex.P.

13. Total loss= $.18 per person $2 - $.18 = $1.82 profit
Experimental Profit
Experimental Profit : The average amount of money earned based on trials of the game.
From our trials in the games: H = 38% M = 62%
P(Stuffed Animal) ($5)= (38%)4 ($5) = $.10
P(Large Candy) ($1) = (38%)3 (62%)1 ($1) = $.03
P(2 Pieces of Candy) ($.50)= (38%)2 (62%)2 ($.50) = $.03
P(1 Piece of Candy) ($.25)= (38%)1 (62%)3 ($.25) = $.02
Total loss= $.18 per person
$2 - $.18 = $1.82 profit
$1.82
X 50 ppl
$91.00

14. Experimental Profit
Now you have the tools to find the Experimental Probability for your game.
Good Luck!!
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY TO DAY TO WORK IN CLASS
Your group should be working
CARNIVAL DAY is Tuesday October 11!!!

15. Completed to do List:
Game is complete and ready to play by Wednesday 10/04, Game brought in Thursday 10/05
Report is complete except for the experimental probability by Friday 10/06
Thursday 10/05 play the games and collect the data with your group
Friday Carnival Day!! Let’s have some fun!! 10/06
Friday Report Folder Due 10/07