1. Economic and Market Outlook
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Russell T Price, CFA®
Senior Economist
Ameriprise Financial
February 1, 2018

2. Two important ways of looking at the economy
Activity based indicators: (i.e. what’s happening now)
What they are: retail sales, monthly job growth, manufacturing activity, the latest reading on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), etc.
What they tell us: the current pulse of economic activity
Fundamental balances: (i.e. where we stand)
What they are: consumer indebtedness, corporate balance sheets, pent-up demand, business inventories, labor force conditions, etc.
What they tell us: the underlying support (or lack-there-of) for the economy
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3. U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Key to the outlook:
Good fundamentals
Headwinds /Risks:
Higher interest rates
Government policy
International risks /prospects
Source: Commerce Dept., Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc.
For internal use only. Not intended for inspection by, or distribution or quotation to the general public.

4. The Consumer…spending reliant on job growth
Consumer spending is ultimately dependent on income growth...
Income growth is ultimately dependent on job growth.
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Source: U.S. Labor Dept., Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc.

5. Employment prospects remain encouraging
Layoffs are low.
Job openings are high.
Aggregate demand is improving.
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Source: FactSet, Labor Department

6. Employment prospects look encouraging
Layoffs are low.
Job openings are high.
Aggregate demand is improving.
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Source: FactSet, Labor Department
Data is seasonally adjusted (sa)

7. Consumers debt levels are relatively low
Financial Obligations Ratio: Required mortgage, rent, auto lease, consumer debt, home ins., and property tax payments…as a % of Disposable Income.
Source: Federal Reserve
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Source: FactSet

8. Consumers are managing their debts well
Late payments are close to historical lows.
Source: Federal Reserve
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Source: FactSet

9. Consumers are managing their debts well
Late payments are close to historical lows.
Financial Obligations data provided by the Federal Reserve.
Consumer Confidence data provided by The Conference Board.
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Source: FactSet

10. Corporate Balance Sheets
Possibly in their best condition in 60 years.
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Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc.
For internal use only. Not intended for inspection by, or distribution or quotation to the general public.

11. Global growth projections: slow, but improving
Key regions such as Europe, China and Japan have shown improved momentum in last few quarters.
Source: International Monetary Fund, October 2017
For internal use only. Not intended for inspection by, or distribution or quotation to the general public.

12. Investment Implications
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13. Market Valuations: S&P 500 Trailing P/E
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Source: FactSet as of January 16, 2018

14. Earnings growth likely a key to stock price expansion
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Source: Consensus estimates from FactSet as of January 16, 2018

15. Corporate earnings at high levels
Total U.S. corporate profits have recovered strongly.
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Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via FactSet

16. Demographics imply slower growth.
Is 2.5% the new 4%?
Slower population growth simply implies slower economic growth.
Should also keep inflation and interest rates in check.
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Source: U.S. Census Dept., Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc.
For internal use only. Not intended for inspection by, or distribution or quotation to the general public.

17. Wrapping it all up….
U.S. economic fundamentals appear in good position to support growth rather than hinder it. The pace of expansion should remain constrained by demographics, the need for U.S. government austerity and slowly rising interest rates.
The global economy’s “corrective phase” seems to be nearing an end. (Although this does not mean something can not still go wrong!)
China’s economic growth should continue to moderate as it looks to reduce its reliance on exports and infrastructure, while slowly boosting domestic consumption.
European problems (too much government debt) over the last few years are a lesson for the U.S.
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18. Key Risks: still many! Trade policy (NAFTA and China, mostly)
China – too much debt, particularly at corporate level
Federal Reserve policy – and leadership transition
Wildcards: Russia, N. Korea, Venezuela, Iran, China, etc.
Dysfunction in Washington
Euro Zone debt, bank sector problems, structural issues
Action needs to be taken to address future U.S. deficits
Commodity price volatility /impact on emerging markets
Fighting in the Middle East / North Africa
Momentum remains important. Around the world monetary and fiscal policy measures are largely exhausted. i.e. little room for interest rates to go lower and further government deficit spending not a true viable option.
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19. Questions? Potential policy changes: China / Emerging Markets?
Gold? The U.S. dollar?
Unemployment?
Commodity prices?
Oil /gasoline prices?
Terrorism?
Municipals? State and Local debt?
Potential policy changes:
Corporate taxes
Personal taxes
Trade
Infrastructure Spending
Inflation / Interest Rates?
Affordable Care Act?
Housing?
U.S. Federal Government debt?
The Fed?
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20. Disclosures
The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change, and may differ from views expressed by other Ameriprise Financial associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Ameriprise Financial and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, will not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not account for individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.
Except for the historical information contained herein, certain matters in this presentation are forward-looking statements or projections that are dependent upon certain risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to, such factors and considerations as general market volatility, global economic and geopolitical impacts, fiscal and monetary policy, liquidity, the level of interest rates, and historical sector performance relationships as they relate to the business and economic cycle.
This summary is based upon financial information and statistical data obtained from sources deemed reliable, but in no way is warranted by Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. as to accuracy or completeness. This is not a solicitation by Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc. of any order to buy or sell securities. This Summary is based exclusively on an analysis of general current market conditions, rather than the suitability of a specific proposed securities transaction. We will not advise you as to any change in figures or our views. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Continued on next page...
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21. Disclosures… (continued)
Investment products are not federally or FDIC-insured, are not deposits or obligations of, or guaranteed by any financial institution, and involve investment risks including possible loss of principal and fluctuation in value.
Ameriprise Financial and its affiliates do not offer tax or legal advice. Consumers should consult with their tax advisor or attorney regarding their specific situation.
© 2018 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
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