1. 2009 Economic Update
Judging the recent performance of the economy in Calhoun County and the State of Alabama changes significantly based upon your time frame. If you look at the Fiscal year ending in Sept, this was a record year in terms of sales and use tax for the Cities of Anniston, Oxford, and Jacksonville. This was a record year in terms of sales tax for the State of Alabama. If you look at the calendar year in terms of the size of the labor force in our county, this was a record year. Employment levels? Second highest behind Even unemployment was the 4th lowest out of the past ten years as a whole looks good. With the notable exception of the “credit markets, and the associated housing market”. Not a train wreck.
However, we usually don’t look at the economy over time. We look at “right here, right now”. We look at the direction that the number moves (up/down/same). Its not “What unemployment is, its is it up from the previous number”. We should do that. The best predictor of the future is the recent past. Trying to predict February? It makes since to look at January.
If we do that (look at the last quarter of 2008) we can see a definite and sharp slow down especially in those sectors which are exceedingly sensitive to economic cycles, i.e. consumer products, big ticket items cars. We can see companies reducing the size of their workforces, cutting costs. For example, most recent unemployment number we have for Calhoun County, December 08,6.5%. is the highest number since Jan 96. Twelve years ago. A definite shift up.
Three things I want you to keep in mind. First, when we last met Jan 2008, you(membership) predicted that it would get worse over the course of the year. It obviously did. It mainly happened at the end of the year.
Second, in this year’s survey you predict that things will get better, not necessarily during the first half of the year, but before the year is over.
Third, in the seven years that we have been conducting this survey, the membership has not been wrong yet.
So, it definitely looks like some tougher times are coming; however, the membership feels that we may see signs of improvement sooner than later.
Good Morning I’m Mark Hearn and along with Richard Cobb, I’ll be talking about the economy of Calhoun County and the State of Alabama.
The numbers we’re going to be looking at have been put together by the JSU’s Center for Economic Development under the direction of Pat Shaddix and the College of Commerce and Business Administration at Jacksonville State University
Information provided by Jacksonville State University Center for Economic Development and College of Commerce and Business Administration

2. Overview Serious Business Calhoun County Update
State of Alabama Update
So, Like in the past we’ll start with a look at the county and then move on to the State.

3. Calhoun County 2009 Update Member Survey County Gross Domestic Product
Employment
Unemployment
Housing
Calhoun County McClellan Development Authority
We’ll look at the results of a recent survey of the membership. Some basic economic numbers, employment 2

4. Q#1: Your Comparison of this Years Economic Outlook to Last
First, the future. We’re going to talk about the future before we talk about the past. We surveyed the Chamber membership. The complete results of the survey are in the appendix. I want to hit a few highlights. Like in previous years, the first question asks for you comparison of this coming year to last and if you thought things looked better about the same or worse.
The membership is fairly divided 47%
Year 2009

5. Q#1: Your Comparison of this Years Economic Outlook to Last 2003-2009
Up from our low of 40% in 2008

6. Q#2: Your Employment Outlook
for Coming Year
Second question, “your employment outlook for the coming year.
Most expect to remain the same while only 25% expect to expand their work force
Year 2009

7. Q#2: Your Employment Outlook for Coming Year 2003-2009
That 25% number is the lowest in the surveys seven year history.

8. Q#3: How Likely to Increase Employee Compensation in
Coming Year
On increasing employee compensation in the coming year
42% Very likely
Year 2009

9. Q#3: How Likely to Increase Emp Compensation in Coming Year 2003-2009
Lowest number in surveys seven year history
O.k. Next we asked a special topic question. We wanted to focus on the sales force. Specifically

10. Economic Indicators

11. Population Trends Calhoun County 1999-2007
It is unfortunate that the 2000 census data was being collected at the same time that Fort McClellan was being down sized because all the projections for the county from will be based upon that artificially or at least temporary dip in the county’s population. So what we have inherited is a base and adjustment system which is increasing inaccurate.
The CED at JSU recognizes the problem and has calculated an alternative number from residential power hookups in the county (about 52 and a half thousand) times the average size of households (2.4) in the county.
This puts us at thousand which is above the highs for the county back in the mid 90s at the height of the Fort. Probably the highest ever for the county
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

12. Calhoun County Gross Domestic Product 2001-2006 in $ Billions
Real GDP adjusted for inflation. Fortunate since these are reported by Metropolitan Statistical Area. Ours is listed is the Anniston/Oxford MSA, but actually includes the entire county in the calculation.
18 months behind on reporting this number. 6 months behind at the state level. Sept 2009 Bureau of Economic Analysis will release 2007 numbers
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

13. Calhoun County Gross Domestic Product % Change 2002-2006
GDP projects for the county spiked back in GDP growth remains positive through 2006 the most recent number
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

14. Labor Force Calhoun County 1999-2008
Labor force in the county continued to grow in Highest level for the figures I have going back to 1990.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

15. Employment for Calhoun County 1999-2008
Off a bit from last years high
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

16. Unemployment Rate for Calhoun County 1999-2008
Looking at some of the highest rates we’ve had since the mid 90s. Around 1995.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

17. Unemployment for Calhoun County vs Alabama 2008
Looking at it over the course of the year on a month by month basis in comparison to the state level. We bounced above and below the state average.
Dec # is highest number since Jan 96
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

18. Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2007 State Ave – 4.0%
3.8%
Alabama Unemployment Rates December State Ave – 4.0%
Unemployment Rate
3.8% and Below
3.9% - 5.2%
5.3% and Above  
Looking at Nov % number.
MOBILE, Alabama: German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp (pronounced Tissencrup) AG chose Alabama over Louisiana on Friday for a $3.7 billion (€2.74 billion) steel plant, described by steel industry experts as the first large-scale project of its kind in the United States in decades. Set to open in 2010, the plant will employ as many as 2,700 workers when fully running, company officials said in selecting Alabama.
The company said that once the plant is up and running, it could create as many as 38,000 new jobs related to the mill, from suppliers to transportation to dining and entertainment. Bob Soulliere, president and CEO of ThyssenKrupp Steel and Stainless USA, said factors in choosing Alabama included the state's logistical location to Brazil, electricity and labor operating costs, and site specific capital expenditures.
Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations 17

19. Alabama Unemployment Rates December 2008 State Ave – 6.7%
6.5%
Alabama Unemployment Rates December State Ave – 6.7%
Unemployment Rate
6.4% and Below
6.5% - 8.4%
8.5% and Above  
Looking at Nov % number.
MOBILE, Alabama: German steelmaker ThyssenKrupp (pronounced Tissencrup) AG chose Alabama over Louisiana on Friday for a $3.7 billion (€2.74 billion) steel plant, described by steel industry experts as the first large-scale project of its kind in the United States in decades. Set to open in 2010, the plant will employ as many as 2,700 workers when fully running, company officials said in selecting Alabama.
The company said that once the plant is up and running, it could create as many as 38,000 new jobs related to the mill, from suppliers to transportation to dining and entertainment. Bob Soulliere, president and CEO of ThyssenKrupp Steel and Stainless USA, said factors in choosing Alabama included the state's logistical location to Brazil, electricity and labor operating costs, and site specific capital expenditures.
Source: AL Dept of Industrial Relations 18

20. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY02-03 - FY07-08 Anniston in $1,000
Next we move to sales tax revenues. These numbers are from the municipalities in our area. For Anniston. Nice growth. Near record numbers. However, we can see things starting to change we look at later in the year. Highest going back over 10 years
Source: City of Anniston

21. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Monthly Total FY 07 – 08 Anniston (Oct-Sept) in $1,000
FY Numbers look good. They start to trial off late.
Source: City of Anniston

22. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct & Nov 2007 vs 2008 Anniston in $1,000
Off about 7%
Don’t have Dec number should be out today Jan 29
National Level Nov – Dec 08 Off 2.7%.
Dec 07 vs Dec 08 off 10%
Source: City of Anniston

23. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY02-03 - FY07-08 Oxford in $1,000
Source: City of Oxford

24. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Monthly Total FY 07 – 08 Oxford (Oct-Sept) in $1,000
Source: City of Oxford

25. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct, Nov, Dec 2007 vs 2008 Oxford in $1,000
Oct number $1,550,012 Little over 6.3% drop from previous year
Nov $1,485,506 Little over 5.2% drop
Dec $1,748, About 7%
National Level Nov – Dec 08 Off 2.7%.
Dec 07 vs Dec 08 off 10%
Source: City of Oxford

26. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Annual Total FY02-03 - FY07-08 Jacksonville in $1,000
Source: City of Jacksonville

27. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Monthly Total FY 07 – 08 Jacksonville (Oct-Sept) in $1,000
Source: City of Jacksonville

28. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct, Nov, & Dec 2007 vs 2008 Jacksonville in $1,000
National Level Nov – Dec 08 Off 2.7%.
Dec 07 vs Dec 08 off 10%
Source: City of Jacksonville

29. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Monthly Total FY 07 – 08 Weaver (Nov-Sept) in $1,000
Oct $125,444
Source: City of Weaver

30. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Monthly Total FY 07 – 08 Ohatchee (Oct-Sept) in $1,000
Source: City of Ohatchee

31. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct, Nov & Dec 2007 vs 2008 Ohatchee in $1,000
Oct number Little over 6.3% drop from previous year
Nov Little over 5.3% drop
Source: City of Oxford

32. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Monthly Total FY 07 – 08 Piedmont (Oct-Sept) in $1,000
Source: City of Piedmont

33. Sales, Use & Lodging Tax Oct 2007 vs Oct 2008 Piedmont in $1,000
Up 7.8%
Source: City of Piedmont

34. Calhoun Housing Statistics YTD Dec 2007 vs YTD Dec 2008
% Change
Total Homes Sold
1,263
1057
-16.3%
Avg Selling Price
$135,971
$130,831
-3.8%
Avg Days on Market
149
110
-26%
YTD Nov As we’ve all heard the numbers are tough.
Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center

35. Number of Home Sales Per Month Calhoun County 1999-2008
94.56 Avg - - -
Below the 10 year average
Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate

36. Calhoun County Housing Affordability Index 3rd Q 2008
Remember with the afforability index, higher is better. Of the eleven major metropolitan areas in the state, we are about in the middle behind the Shoals(Florence) area, Huntsville, Montgomery, and Gadsden. Down a bit from last year. The number is still significantly higher than the state number of 154 and the US number of 127.
Housing is quite affordable in the county relative to other locals.
Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center

37. Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility as December 24, 2008
Since 1st burn on August 9, 2003, have destroyed
All GB Munitions/Nerve Agent demilitarized
All VX Projectiles/Rockets demilitarized
12/24/2008 All VX Land Mines demilitarized
99% storage risk eliminated
56% stockpile destroyed
Next for an update on the Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility. This is a moving target.
Weekly project update for August 9, 2003 through Jan 14, 2007 All goes well and basically on track with completion still scheduled for the Summer 2010.
Source: Anniston Chemical Agent Disposal Facility

38. McClellan Economic Development Update
Robin Scott
Chief Executive Officer
McClellan Development Authority

39. McClellan Development Authority (MDA)
Closing of Fort McClellan in 1999, City of Anniston and Calhoun County formed Joint Powers Authority
Mission: Seek out new enterprises to bring back jobs and tax revenues lost with closure of Fort …while preserving historic character and beauty of properties
Name has changed (now McClellan Development Authority) but mission remains same

40. McClellan Development Authority Board
Ronnie Smith Chairman
Anthony Humphries Vice Chairman
Lynetta Owens Secretary
Ken Deal
Willie Duncan
Jim Farrell
Mark Hearn
Mike James
Julia Segars
William Tippins
Gerald Wilkerson

41. MDA Priorities for 2009 Oversee Industrial Access Road construction
Coordination with ALDOT, City, and County
Conduct top-to-bottom assessment of all Economic Development practices
Policies, procedures, marketing, negotiation, etc.
Prepare South Industrial Site for marketing
Demo work, field clearing, utilities work
Renovate our “most marketable” buildings
Utilities upgrades, exterior updates, roof repairs

42. Industrial Access Road (IAR) Project Significance
Key to future growth at McClellan
Key industrial sites located adjacent to IAR
Access key factor for attracting new businesses
IAR will provide access to major road networks
South: Eastern Bypass to I-20 and AL 431
North: AL 21
IAR will reduce local traffic congestion
McClellan residential and recreational areas
Quintard Avenue (45,000 trips/day)

43. Industrial Access Road Connections to Main Arteries
Future project; IAR Phase II
Industrial Access Road Connections to Main Arteries
IAR Phase I funds APPROVED!
Total cost: $3,135,766
Eastern Bypass paving contract to be let Feb 09

44. Industrial Site Access
Industrial Sites
Research Park
Industrial Site Access

45. Eastern Bypass US Army has completed ROW cleanup!!!
Matrix is currently conducting cleanup on both sides of ROW
ALDOT timelines
Bottom Line: No foreseen problems

46. February 2007 Snapshot of Developable Lands
1189 acres available for development, however…

47. Southern Industrial Area
Acres available in South industrial site, however… prep is required!

48. McClellan Economic Development Summary
Have been notable successes in economic redevelopment efforts at McClellan
“No-cost” deed transfers from US Army to JPA
$216+M for ordnance and environmental cleanup
38 underground tanks, 5 landfills, acres of MEC
Sales of residential properties
Buckner district, Summerall Terrace, Cane Creek
Path to future economic growth is through “prepared” properties available for immediate commercial/industrial use

49. Calhoun County: Summing it Up
Membership Survey- Guarded, but optimistic
Population- Up
Employment- Down from record high in 2007
Unemployment- Up Dec 2008 (6.5%)
Highest since Jan 1996 (7.5%)
Housing Market- Down from record highs
McClellan Economic Development- Moving Forward
Sidenotes
Questions before we move on to the state.

50. State of Alabama Update
Education
Achievemens 2003
Other Issues
BLCI Survey
Demographics
Economic Indicators
We looked at a county survey now we’re going to look at the results of a state wide survey.
We’ll look over some demographic info
Economic indicators 49

51. Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index
State Survey – 1st Quarter 2009
Approximately 300 respondents
Lets start with the survey results.
These results are for the 4th quarter of Approximately 500 respondents.
Its called the Business Leaders Confidence Index.
Its out of the Center of Business and Economic Research at the University of Alabama in cooperation with Compass Bank.
You can find them at and I encourage you all to check them out and participate

52. Alabama Economic Outlook Q4 2008 compared to Q1 2009
Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index

53. Alabama Economic Outlook Q4 2007 – Q1 2009
But, a bit more cautious
Source: Alabama Business Leaders Confidence Index

54. Alabama Population 2002-2008 in Millions
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

55. Alabama Civilian Labor Force 2002-2008 in Millions
Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations

56. Alabama Employment 2002-2008 in Millions
Source: Alabama Dept of Industrial Relations

57. Alabama Unemployment 2002-2008
Current Unemployment Rates for States and Historical Highs/Lows Seasonally Adjusted Nov. 2007
Historical High Dec
11th in Nation ALABAMA Nov 07
Source: U.S. Department of Labor

58. Unemployment for Alabama vs United States 2008
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

59. Alabama Gross State Product 1998-2007 in $Billions
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

60. Alabama Gross State Product % Change 1998-2007
Source: U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

61. Total Tax Revenue Alabama % Change FY01-02 thru FY07-08
*FY: Oct-Sept
Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

62. Sales Tax Revenue Alabama % Change FY01-02 thru FY07-08
*FY: Oct-Sept
Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

63. Sales Tax Revenue Alabama Jan – Dec 2007 vs 2008
Looking at it over the course of the year. We bounced above and below the state average. Finishing up the year above it
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

64. Tax Revenue Alabama % Change Oct 2007 Vs Oct 2008
Sales
Tax
Individual
Income Tax
Total
Tax
Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

65. Tax Revenue Alabama % Change Nov 2007 Vs Nov 2008
Sales
Tax
Total
Tax
Individual
Income Tax
Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

66. Tax Revenue Alabama % Change Dec 2007 Vs Dec 2008
Individual
Income Tax
Sales
Tax
Total
Tax
Source: Alabama Department of Revenue

67. Alabama Housing Statistics YTD Dec 2007 vs YTD Dec 2008
% Change
Total Homes Sold
57,083
43,690
-23.46%
Avg Selling Price
$157,008
$154,671
-1.49%
Avg Days on Market
123
135
+9.87%
On housing, the state numbers are down
Source: Alabama Real Estate Research & Education Center

68. Number Home Sales Per Month Alabama 1999-2008
3,856 Avg - - -
Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate

69. Ave # of Days Homes on Market Alabama 1999-2008
140 Avg - - -
Source: Alabama Center for Real Estate

70. State of Alabama: Summing it Up
Outlook Survey- Guarded
State Population- Up
Labor Force- Down
Employment- Down
Unemployment- Up
Alabama Gross State Product – Up
State Tax Revenues
Down Late in Year
Housing Sales
Down from record highs
Choccolocco Economic Activity Zone (3 county region) May 22, 2008

71. 2009 Economic Update Calhoun County & State of Alabama
Calhoun County Survey- Turning?
Employment- Down
Unemployment- Up
Sales Tax Revenues- Down Late in Year
Housing- Down
State Survey-1st Q Bleak
Alabama Gross State Product – Up
State Tax Revenues
Down Late in Year
Housing- Down
Short Break before John Harrison the Superintendent of Banks with the Alabama State Banking Department gives his keynote address.