1. Crop Market News Kim Anderson
11/10/2018

2. U.S. Dollar Index: Monthly

3. Agricultural Economics Oklahoma State University
10-Nov-18
Wheat
Kim Anderson
Agricultural Economics
Oklahoma State University

4. OK Average Annual Wheat Price
Ethanol, Funds
USSR, China
WW I
‘14
WW II
‘42
‘28

5. World Wheat Production

7. World wheat production: Region, Harvest Months, and 5-year Avg. Prod
(Million Bushels)
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Major Exporters
Argentina
450
Australia
 920 
Canada (Spring)
1,080 
EU-27
5,390  US
2,090 
Major Importers
Brazil
200
China
 3,400
1,100 
Middle East
700 
N W Africa
Pakistan
930
Select other
Former SU
4,300 
India
3,320

9. World Wheat Exports

10. Source: AgResource Company

11. Daily Cash Wheat Prices: Goltry

12. Daily Cash Wheat Basis: Goltry

13. KC Nearby Wheat Contract: Monthly

14. Daily Cash Wheat Prices: Goltry
World
U.S.
25.1
2.50
25.2
2.22
24.0
2.21
25.6
2.00
24.2
2.25
26.3
2.14
26.7
2.03
27.0
2.05
27.1
2.26

15. World Wheat Situation 2009 25.2 23.9 7.4 $4.87 2010 24.0 24.1 7.3
10-Nov-18
World Wheat Situation
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Year
U. S. Price
(Billion Bushels)
2009
25.2
23.9
7.4
$4.87
2010
24.0
24.1
7.3
$5.70
2011
25.6
7.2
$7.24
2012
24.2
25.0
6.5
$7.77
2013
26.3
25.9
7.1
$6.87
2014
26.7
8.0
$5.99
2015
27.0
26.0
9.0
$4.89
2016
27.1
26.8
9.3
$4.00
7-YR Avg.
7.5
$6.19

16. No. 1 Hard Winter Basis Kansas City Sept., cents per bu
Protein
July 1 Premium
11.0%
-16 - -6
12.6% 75 85
11.2% -5 5
12.8%
11.4% 26 36
13.0% 86 96
11.6% 42 52
13.2%
11.8%
13.4%
12.0%
13.6%
12.2%
13.8% 91
101
12.4%
14.0%
111
Source: Milling and Baking News

17. Wheat Summary World awash in wheat Marketing Assistance Loan (MAL)
Non-Recourse Marketing Assistance Loan
County PCP Data
Corn providing floor price
Doesn’t look good until 2017 but still hope.

18. Corn Market News
11/10/2018

19. World Corn Production: Percentage by Country
1982
47%
Exports
70% - 39%

20. World Corn Imports: Percentage by Country

21. CBT Corn: Monthly

22. CBT Dec Corn: Daily
Basis
-$0.50
$0.05

23. 10-Nov-18
U.S. Corn Situation
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
U. S. Price
Year
(Billion Bushels)
2009
13.1
1.71
$3.55
2010
12.4
1.13
$5.18
2011
12.5
0.99
$6.22
2012
10.8
11.1
0.82
$6.89
2013
13.8
13.5
1.23
$4.46
2014
14.2
13.7
1.73
$3.70
2015
13.6
1.70
$3.65
2016
14.5
2.08
$3.40
7-YR Avg.
12.90
12.96
1.33
$4.81

24. 10-Nov-18
World Corn Situation
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Year
(Billion Bushels)
2009
32.3
32.4
5.7
2010
32.8
33.5
5.1
2011
34.9
34.8
5.2
2012
34.2
34.0
5.4
2013
39.0
37.4
6.8
2014
39.9
38.6
8.2
2015
37.8
8.1
2016
39.8
39.7
7-YR Avg.
35.84
35.50
6.36

25. Corn Summary Record U.S. production Near record world production
Higher U.S. corn ending stocks
Stable world corn ending stocks
Slightly lower corn stocks-to-use ratio
Corn prices stable to higher

26. Soy Bean Market News
11/10/2018

27. World Soybean Production: Percentage by Country 2008-2013
1982
65%

28. World Soybean Exports: Percentage by Country 2008-2013
1982
86%

29. World Soybean Imports: Percentage by Country

30. CBT Soybean: Monthly

31. CBT Nov Soybean: Daily
Basis
-$0.75

32. U.S. Soybean Situation 2009 3.4 0.15 $9.59 2010 3.3 0.22 $11.30 2011
10-Nov-18
U.S. Soybean Situation
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
U. S. Price
Year
(Billion Bushels)
2009
3.4
0.15
$9.59
2010
3.3
0.22
$11.30
2011
3.1
3.2
0.17
$12.50
2012
3.0
0.14
$14.40
2013
3.5
0.09
$13.00
2014
3.9
0.19
$10.10
2015
3.8
0.35
$9.05
2016
4.0
0.29
$9.50
7-YR Avg.
$11.42

33. World Soybean Situation
10-Nov-18
World Soybean Situation
Production
Consumption
Ending Stocks
Year
(Billion Bushels)
2009
9.59
8.75
2.23
2010
9.70
9.25
2.59
2011
8.80
9.47
2.00
2012
9.88
9.60
2.03
2013
10.38
10.11
2.28
2014
11.75
11.05
2.88
2015
11.48
11.66
2.65
2016
11.98
12.08
2.47
7-YR Avg.
10.23
9.98
2.38

34. Soybean Summary Record world production Record world use
Lower U.S. and World ending stocks
Below average world stocks-to-use ratio
Prices stable to higher

35. Crop Market News
11/10/2018

36. Canadian $/U.S. $: Daily Nearest
11/10/2018

37. Canola: Weekly Nearest
‘13
$11.60
‘11
$12.00
‘12
$12.00
‘15
$6.40
‘14
$9.60
‘16
$5.60
11/10/2018

38. Providing Inspiration for Agricultural Success

39. Kim’s marketing philosophy
Market land, labor, capital, and management.
Sell the commodity.
Concentrate on keeping costs low.
Price will take care of itself.
11/10/2018