1. Influence of the price structure on the economy’s dynamics
GDP
GDP
1980
1990
1998
2010
2020
©Institute of Economic Forecasting

2. Influence of the different factors on economic dynamics of Russia
Total GDP growth
5,4 9 5 4
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003 7 -2 -5
4,3
3,9 6
-3,7
0,6 1
3,2
4,9
-1,2
0,3
0,7
1,1
-2,5
1,5 3
8,7
3,7
influence of economic policy
influence of external factors
Totаl GDP growth
influence of oil prices
Influence of the internal factors
influence of the world economy
Illarionov A.N.
IoEF RAS
Influence of the different factors on economic dynamics of Russia
influence of the state’s debt
payments
influence of the tariffs
1, , , ,3 -0,3
2, , ,1 -0, ,7
©Institute of Economic Forecasting

3. Shares of natural monopolies and other branches in total value added
The faster relative growth of tariffs (prices) for the products of natural monopolies projected for the mid-term will inevitably result in 1) a sufficient redistribution of value added in favor of natural monopolies, and 2) an increase in the share of their costs of the total costs of the economy.
Shares of natural monopolies and other branches in total value added 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Natural monopolies
Other branches
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4. Share of the production of the natural monopolies in the branches costs
Years and 2006 г. (in case of the tariff growth in according to drafts of the MERT 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Oil refining
Electric power
Oil production
Gas
Coal
Other fuel sectors
Ferrous metals
Non-ferrous metals
Chemistry
Machine-building
Wood and pulp & paper
Construction materials
Light industry
Food industry
Other branches of industry
Construction
Agriculture and forestry
Freight transport and
communications
for production purposes.
Passenger transport and
for non-production purposes.
Trade and procurement
Other material production
Education, health, culture
Communal services
General government, finance
Science and scientific services
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5. Equation for the price I-O Model
(in matrix form)
p*A*X + va = p*X,
where
А - intermediate coefficient matrix;
X - diagonal matrix of gross output;
p - price vector (unknown),
va - gross value added vector.
Price increase for
energy resources
Cost increase in consuming industries
Price increase
in consuming industries
Adaptation hypothesis
Cost increase
in the fuel sector
Calculation scheme of prices model
© Institute of Economic Forecasting

6. AX+Y = X AX X Y va > Xij AX AXp vap X AX va Xij Yi XiXj AX X
> If
, then
AXp vap
AX va
X gross output vector;
У final demand vector;
А intermediate coefficient matrix;
АХ intermediate consumption;
АХр intermediate consumption after price increase for the product of industry i;
Xij flows for industry I to industry J;
va value added;
vap value added after price increase for the products of industry i
AX+Y
= X
Industry i
Xij AX va
I quadrant of IOT
III quadrant of IOT Yi Y
II quadrant of IOT Xi X
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7. Relative decrease in prices for products of natural monopolies in 1998 was an important factor of the industrial growth in Further decrease in these prices in 1999 sufficiently contributed to the positive economic dynamics in However, in 2000, average price growth in the natural monopolies started to exceed that in industry; as a result the relative gap in price levels shrunk, which correlated with a certain decline in production growth rates in industry in
Dynamics of the GDP and the integral index of relative prices in the natural monopolies sectors
(one year lag)
0.600
0.700
0.800
0.900
1.000
1.100
1.200
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
GDP index
integral index of relative prices in the natural monopolies sectors (one year lag)
© Institute of Economic Forecasting