1. Yaniv Mordecai & Dov Dori
Streamlining Product Lifecycle Risk Management through an OPM-Based Risk Modeling Framework
Yaniv Mordecai & Dov Dori
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

2. Lifecycle Risk Management
What it’s all about…
Product Lifecycle
Project
Operation
Lifecycle Risk Management
Project Risk Management
Operational Risk Management
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

3. Project Risk Management vs. Operational Risk Management
Similar theoretical foundations.
Separate methodologies and practices.
No consolidated approach.
No knowledge transfer on transferred risks.
Phase transition is hardly addressed.
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

4. Why!? (excuses part I) Project stakeholders ≠ operational stakeholders
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

5. Why!? (excuses part II) Project objectives ≠ operational objectives
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

6. Why!? (excuses part III) Project risks ≠ operational risks
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

7. Nevertheless…
Project/operational objectives eventually pertain to the same product/ organization/ environment.
Constant evolution and emergence of development risks affecting the operational environment, and vice versa.
Neither PRM nor ORM provides the means to handle the transition or mutual effect of risks between lifecycle phases.
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

8. Islands of Methodology
Applications:
Nuclear reactors (Cooke 1991)
Space Missions (Cornford et al., 2003; Tralli, 2003; Haimes, 2009)
Oil drilling platforms (Yang et al., 2009)
Agile Software Development (Boehm, 2002)
Characteristics:
Unique environment.
Mega-programs, resource abundant.
Development and operation deeply intertwined.
Stakeholder uniformity/ identity.
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

9. Uncharted Waters
Construction, Infrastructure, Engineering, Machinery, A&D, Software, Hardware, Healthcare, Biomed, … you name it!
Insufficient literature or methodology.
No domain specific applications.
No holistic approach.
No special care for phase transition issues.
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

10. The Paradigm Shift Lifecycle Risk Management defined.
The need to consolidate and integrate PRM and ORM.
The need to address phase-transition issues, ignored or poorly addressed by both PRM and ORM.
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

11. Our Framework
Lifecycle based – consideration of the entire lifecycle of the product – from conception to disposal.
Focus on lifecycle aspects – cycles, phase transition, end-to-end processes, etc.
Risk modeling on top of the system model – allows to communicate risk and risk handling between phases and stakeholders.
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

12. Object-Process Methodology (OPM) Our Underlying Framework
A minimum description length language and a comprehensive systems engineering paradigm for Modeling, Communicating, Documenting , Engineering and Lifecycle support of complex, multi-disciplinary systems.
Based on simultaneous representation of structure (via stateful objects) and behavior (via processes).
Listed as one of the leading methodologies for MBSE (Model-base Systems Engineering).
OPM is in the process of becoming ISO standard and the basis for Model-Based ISO Standards Authoring.
11/10/2018

13. The basic OPM things:
Objects and Processes

14. OPM Entities – the bricks: Things and States
Object: A thing that exists or might exist physically or informatically.
Objects are stateful:
Objects can have states
At each point in time a stateful object is
at one of its states - static, or
in transition between two states – undergoing change
Process: A thing that transforms an object.
Transforming an object is:
creating it,
consuming it, or
changing its state.
Object
State 1
State 2
Processing

15. Compact Ontology: A Minimum Length OPM alphabet
OPM unifies the system’s structure and behavior throughout the analysis and design of the system within one frame of reference using a small alphabet:
Two types of things:
(1) stateful objects
(2) processes
Two families of links:
(1) structural links: connect objects with objects
(2) procedural links: connect processes with objects
11/10/2018

16. Why OPM?
Single model with detail decomposition. Clutter and incompatibilities better avoided.
Built-in mechanisms for non-linear structures - triggers, timing constraints, and exceptions.
Unique approach for complexity management and reduction
Bimodal representation: graphical + textual.
Extensible – allows meta-modeling.
OPCAT – free CASE tool, built-in simulation capability.
On the way to ISO standardization.
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

17. Our OPM Model
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

18. Zoom in to Product Lifecycle
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

19. Zoom in to Risk Management
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

20. Lifecycle Risk Phenomena
Risk Migration
Risk Propagation
Risk Transformation
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

21. Risk Migration
Direct movement of a risk effect from one phase to another.
When:
Risk source applies to both phases.
Objectives are shared by both stakeholder groups.
Examples:
Interfaces to legacy systems.
Cost distribution over phases. Example: cheap component with high power consumption.
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

22. Risk Migration Pattern
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

23. Risk Propagation
Continuous effect of project progress on operations, or vice versa.
When:
Developing and operating organizations/environments are related/ dependant.
Examples:
Delayed software delivery hinders new business service launch.
Aircraft maintenance delays or postpones aircraft modification.
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

24. Risk Propagation Pattern
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

25. Risk Transformation
Conversion of a project risk effect to another operational risk effect, or vice versa.
When:
Product design affects operational setting.
Operational constraints affect product specification.
Examples:
Monitoring system reduces the risk of failure of monitored component, but its own reliability may be at risk (what happens if the monitor stops working?)
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

26. Risk Transformation Pattern
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

27. Example – Shoulder Missile Defense System for Commercial Aircraft
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

28. Example – Shoulder Missile Defense System for Commercial Aircraft
Focus on Authorization issues
Two risks:
Hitting Aircraft, False Activation
Zooming into Reaction
Pattern:
Risk Transformation
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

29. Summary The problem: The answer:
The lack of an integrated lifecycle risk management approach.
The lack of treatment of the transition between phases.
The answer:
A structured approach to lifecycle risk management.
Focus on phase transition risk management issues.
Risk modeling directly on top of the system model, using OPM.
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

30. The Enterprise Systems Modeling Laboratory
A unique education and research studio concept.
Implementation of powerful tools and methodologies.
Participating in several projects across the world (NASA SMACKDOWN, TALOS, VISIONAIR, ISO, SEBoK)
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012

31. Simulated Animation Projects
NASA Smackdown Project
The SISO Simulation Smackdown is an effort to promote better awareness and understanding of both the importance and the complexity of modern modeling and simulation through hands-on mentoring and participation with modeling and simulation practitioners.
TALOS autonomous robot project
Develop and field test the innovative concept of a mobile, modular, scalable, autonomous and adaptive system for protecting European borders.
Our contribution to both projects is VIVID OPM – A framework for model-driven simulated animation
Tanas, M.; Holubowicz, W.; Adamczyk, A.; Taberski, G.; "The TALOS project. EU wide robotic border guard system," Methods and Models in Automation and Robotics (MMAR), th International Conference on , vol., no., pp , Aug URL:

32. International Standards and Knowledge Generation Projects
ISO Standardization of OPM
We advocate a model-based systems engineering approach for creating “industry-strength” technical documents
Technical document authoring is the function of the system – the organization – that delivers the technical document.
Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge (SEBoK)
The SEBoK is a guide to the body of knowledge, providing references to detailed sources for additional information.
The SEBoK is primarily domain independent, with implementation examples providing the domain-specific context.
The SEBoK is focused on engineered systems: products, services, systems of systems (SoS), and enterprises

33. Yaniv Mordecai 054-9768764 ymordecai@gmail.com
Thanks!
Yaniv Mordecai
Interface Driven Risk Modeling
March 2012