1. Presented to: Change Management Group 23 October 2003
Sense and Respond Logistics: Co-Evolution of an Adaptive Enterprise Capability
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Presented to:
Change Management Group
23 October 2003

2. Transforming Defense …The new American Way of War
The New Rules
Fight first for information superiority
Speed of command
Access to information-shared awareness
Dispersed forces-noncontiguous operations
Demassification
Elimination of process lines
(e.g. organize, deploy, employ, sustain; ops,
intel, logistics)
Elimination of structural lines
(e.g. Joint ops at the small unit level)
Dynamic self-synchronization
Alter initial conditions
Develop high rates of change
Compression of levels of war
NETWORK CENTRIC WARFARE
HIGH RATES OF CHANGE
CLOSELY COUPLED EVENTS
LOCK IN/OUT
SPEED OF COMMAND
SELF- SYNCHRONIZATION

3. Transforming Defense …deter forward …or defeat with modest reinforcement
Increasing the “speed of command” of a networked, distributed force contributes to more rapid force projection as well as increasing complexity and ambiguity- How can DoD adapt?
Alter Initial
Conditions
What’s Valued
Networking
Sensing
Envelope Management
Speed/endurance
Numbers
Risk Tolerance
Staying Power
Intensity
Assure, Dissuade, Deter
Restore
Decisively Defeat
Duration

4. Approaches to Logistics
Sense and Respond
Just-in-Time
Mass-Based
Prime Metric:
Days of Supply
More is better
Mountains of stuff measured in days of supply
Uses massive inventory to hedge against uncertainty in demand and supply
Mass begets mass and slows everything down
Flow Time
On-time is better
Inventory is reduced to a minimum and kept moving
Uses precise demand prediction and static optimization to purge uncertainty
Works great, except when it doesn’t
Speed/Quality of Effects
Adaptive is better
Inventory is dynamically positioned throughout
Uses transportation flexibility and robust IT to handle uncertainty
Initial S&R models look promising
Supports distributed, adaptive ops
Network-Centric Warfare
Global Information Grid
Military model is different than the commercial model – need to adapt not adopt commercial model.

5. What’s the Behavior Telling Us?
“Predictive, optimized, linear supply chain”
Current Logistics Concepts
(Predominant Approach)
“Adaptive, responsive demand networks”
Sense & Respond Logistics
(Predominant Approach)
Sources of Stuff
(Theater, CONUS, etc)
Joint Sea Base
Joint Force Capabilities Packages
Army Stuff
Navy Stuff
USAF Stuff
USMC Stuff
Common Stuff
Other Stuff
Distributed Operations
“TraditionalC2”
Forward Ops
“Context & Coordination”
Transition from linear supply chain to adaptive demand network

6. End-to-End S&R Point-of-Effect
to Source of Support 
Support Networks D
GLOBAL VIRTUAL
SUPPORT NETWORK
GLOBAL
DISTRIBUTED OPERATIONS
DECISION
SUPPORT
TOOLS
GLOBAL ASSET VISIBILITY
& SOURCING
Adaptive C2 System
Source of Supply D 
Commodity
Network 
Resources (Physical and Info) D
Source of Service 
Services Network D
Source of Maintenance
Maintenance
Network
Virtual
S&R C2
Hub D D 
Source of Manufacture
Effects drive capabilities which drive requirements for Joint Capability Packages which consume resources which create Demands on the Support Network System.
The area between the Points-of-Effect and the Demand Nodes is the “Logistics No-man Land”.
Standards-based virtual S&R C2 hub, as part of component-based architecture, allows for Suppliers to “plug in” and exchange information and transactions and expedite responses.
There are different kinds of support networks that support different types of logistics activity and require different support policies and strategies to support an S&R system.
S&R concepts apply to the full spectrum of Logistics capabilities and types of products and capabilities, end-to-end from Point-of-Effect to Source of Support.
Agile Manufacturing
Network 
Filtered Demand Signals  D
Demand Node
Effect Node
Real-Time, Effects-Driven Demand and Support Networks

7. S&R Project Goals
Catalyze transformation of a joint, adaptive logistics capability throughout DoD
Develop a formal concept for S&R Logistics in the context of Joint Adaptive Operations
Identify and document measures to evaluate potentially transformational logistics concepts
Go beyond standard logistics flow measures to measures of survivability, agility, coherence, and speed/quality of effects
Incorporate a S&R logistics module into experimentation that allows DoD to gather operational data and evaluate the Sense and Respond concept; inform system design
Create a prototype information system that supports logistics adaptation to changes in the operational environment
Use rapid prototyping and an experimentation campaign to capture learning and inform capability build
Allow opportunities for discovery and invention
- Evolve and refine an S&R logistics operational concept to include relevant parts of existing Joint and Service concept development efforts and business analogs
Create a set of contextualized testable claims about S&R Logistics to focus experimentation and capability co-evolution

8. S&R Project Approach
Explore the behavioral aspects of networks and how they impact operational, organizational, process, and technology designs
Operate networked teams synergistically across networked threads to achieve the desired outcome
Concept
Technical
Functional
Experimentation
Leverage knowledge and technology from industry and academia
Execute within operational context set by Joint Operations from the Sea Base
Exploit full range of experimentation opportunities
Evolve vs. “build” new capabilities
Employ co-evolution strategy to influence change rapidly

9. Co-Evolutionary Process
Strategy
and Concept
Co-Evolution
and Spiral
Development
S&R
Experimentation
Framework
Implications
Across DoD
and Beyond

10. Co-Evolutionary Process
Strategy
and Concept
Co-Evolution
and Spiral
Development
S&R
Experimentation
Framework
Implications
Across DoD
and Beyond
I would like to see the Coevolution chart look more like:
> Concepts and Ppinciples
> Designs for Action
> Technology and methodology support
> Operational Validation

11. C2 Ops Intel Strategy and Concept Log Strategy / Vision NCW EBO EBL
Network
Centric
Log System
Capability
Academics
Lessons Learned
Business/Industry C2

12. S&R Goals in Transformation Context
DoD Military Operations Transformational Concepts
Effects-based Operations
Cognitive Decision Support
Joint/Allied Adaptive Warfare
Power Projection and Assured Access
Integrated Operations, Logistics, Intelligence
Coordination of Strategic, Operational, Tactical Levels
Network-Centric Warfare
Sense and Respond Logistics Goals
NII Transformation Goals
Make information available on a network that people depend on and trust.
Populate the network with new, dynamic sources of information to defeat the enemy
Implement full spectrum security
Military Logistics Transformation Concepts
Opportunistic Adaptation
Real Time Management and Control
Prediction and Anticipation
Capabilities Packages and Modularity
Short Term Inventory Optimization
Seamless Logistics
Range of Military Operations
Experiences and Lessons Learned
Sustaining Base and Commercial Technology
OFT Transformation Guidance and Strategy
Can we replace "Prediction" with "Knowing Earlier>Anticipation"?
Do we really mean Short term inventory OPTIMIZATION? How about Short-term inventory SATISFICING"? --although it is unfamiliar, it is a term coined by Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon precisely to deal with the fact that the convept of optimization is alien to a dynamical, non-linear system.
NII transofrmation goals should introduce the concept of Managing by Wire in which decision-makers are supprted with role specific designs that enable them to cycle through the OODA loop faster, increasing speed of command.

13. S&R Concepts to Transform DoD
S&R business analog is an adaptive managerial framework originally developed by IBM
Key ideas:
Assume demand is ultimately unpredictable, so success depends on speed of pattern recognition and speed of response
The best supply chain is no longer one that is highly optimized, but one that is highly flexible
Organizes business units and subunits into “modular capabilities” that negotiate with one another over commitments
Networks “self-synchronize” via a common environment and set of shared objectives; typically business financial and customer satisfaction measures
Depends on sophisticated IT support to enable data sharing, “knowing earlier,” commitment tracking, and role reconfiguration
Business literature and practice reflect application of network centric theory and principles
HEADQUARTERS
After "...subunits into 'a system of modular capabilities'" add " in which accountable decison-makers negotiate (and re-negotiate) commitments with one another....."
Change common environment to "common context"
Change commitment tracking to "dynamic inter-role commitment management"
NATO Integrated Event-Driven Rapid Deployment Force

14. Sense and Respond Logistics Concept
Support network is dynamic
Support doctrine anticipates event-driven, reconfigurable support nets
Emphasizes distribution flexibility and support network responds to need
Negotiation-based relationships
All entities use commander’s intent, planned effects, and detailed situation awareness to negotiate and synchronize
Roles and commitments of entities are dynamically defined within a specific context
All entities are described in terms of current capabilities, not as static forces
Networks are robust and difficult to analyze and attack
More robust to node failure
Adapts to real-time demand signals
Supports distributed, adaptive operations
Network adaptivity allows logistics decisions to be made continuously and anticipatorily
Emphasis on information and distribution allows a greater degree of operational flexibility and risk management
No pause—log does not constrain ops speed
Mechanisms are transparent to warfighters; but results are very apparent
Make the admiral's point that the way to mitigate risk in an unpredictable environment is to expand the number of capabilities available to the dispatcher/decision-maker.
S&RL is a source of operational advantage and a force multiplier

15. For whom is this view designed
For whom is this view designed. I think it important to show how this information gets synthesized into role-specific MBW support.

16. Co-Evolutionary Process
Strategy
and Concept
Co-Evolution
and Spiral
Development
S&R
Experimentation
Framework
Implications
Across DoD
and Beyond

17. Co-Evolution and Spiral Development
Concepts
Process
Technology
Organization
Incremental Capability Releases
See previous comment on the layers that coevolve

18. Spiral Development ≠ Co-Evolution
Concepts
Technologies
Software
Engineering
Doctrine
Experimentation
Policies
Processes
TTPs
Implementation
Spiral Development Model
Co-Evolution Strategy
-Industry definition and practice of spiral development is primarily focused on technology spirals and does not satisfy DoD’s need to include feedback loops into concepts, technology, and doctrine development. Co-evolution includes the DoD definition of spiral development but extends the practice to include rapid development of new capabilities—continuous implementation that includes changing the culture and allowing for discovery and invention.
SHH: I think the idea of co-evolution incorporates the concept of ongoing interactions between these elements -- interactions that impact on the learning of each element. I think the circles would be better displayed as a network of interacations, rather than as a sequential process. For example, if new concepts interact with doctine, the result is likely to be a change in both.
Focuses on software development processes characterized by cyclic, concurrent engineering
Cycles driven by risk considerations
No feedback loop into concepts, technologies, doctrine
Focuses on continuous implementation of concepts, processes, policies, technologies, and organizations characterized by continuous assessment and feedback from the bottom up
Concurrent concept and technology development
Cycles driven by design experiments that force co-evolution of concepts, technologies, doctrine at the domain intersections

19. Co-Evolutionary Process
Strategy
and Concept
Co-Evolution
and Spiral
Development
S&R
Experimentation
Framework
Implications
Across DoD
and Beyond

20. S&R Experimental Framework
S&RL Primitive Vignettes
SV 04
GE VII
. . . others
UC 04
Operational Context
LTAs
LOEs
Workshops
Game Play
Demonstrations / Experiments
Seminars
Concepts IT
Prototype
Architectures
Experimental Use Cases
S&R Experimental Framework
SHH To reinforce the coe-evolution idea, the lower right quadrant would be better if it showed two dirctional arrows connecting the three elements--coevalent, non-linear coevolution of all three

21. Co-Evolutionary Process
Strategy
and Concept
Co-Evolution
and Spiral
Development
S&R
Experimentation
Framework
Implications
Across DoD
and Beyond

22. Implications across DoD and Beyond
Private
Sector
Technology
S&RL
Competitive
Advantage
Policy
Acquisition

23. Synchronizing S&R and the Force-Centric Logistics Enterprise
Overall Objective: Develop a coherent, convergent DoD Logistics Transformation Strategy that reconciles and builds on S&RL, FLE, and PBL initiatives
Near-term: Identify linkages and specific leverage points in programs and initiatives in these areas:
Concept
Process
Metrics
Experimentation
Apply S&RL concepts and co-evolution strategies and processes, end-to-end and at all levels (strategic, operational, tactical—these blur in the S&R concept) to evaluate current and design future initiatives
Present a concept for joint prototyping and experimentation to explore these interactions directly
SHH: to me a Process is one type of capability. It has the potential for producing one or more effects. I'd prefer preplacing Process with Capabilites in this chart.
OH OH!No blurring here!! In the S&R concept, strategic refers to the allocation of resources prior to an engagement, It incorporates the ROle and Accountabaility design, and the investment in creating the capababilites in the design at a spedified quantity, and in populating the roles with competent people people who accept accountability for producing the defined effects with the capabilities in their charge. Tactics refer to the reallocation of of assets during an engagement. THis occurs when the dispatching role orchestrates the response to a particular event. Operations refer to the use of assets during an engagement (accountable people producing the effects that they are commited to produce, instance by instance. (I think the military reverses the meanings of tactics and operations, but am not sure)

24. Linkages
Concept: Apply NCW, EBO, and EBL (Effects Based Logistics) Concepts to Logistics Transformation
Metrics: Emphasize customer-back approach:
Primary Logistics objective: Support to joint, adaptive, distributed operations effectiveness and capabilities; Secondary objective: Efficiency, cost and footprint reductions
Build on Balanced Scorecard concept to drive Logistics system behavior and design by adding a more comprehensive set of effects-based, operational metrics
Drive Supply Chains directly by military operational demand signals and increase supplier visibility over operational drivers to reduce risk and uncertainty and increase effectiveness
Process: Link S&RL Operational process model directly to SCOR process model
Experimentation: Bring suppliers into end-to-end prototype and experimentation plan, including SV04 and Joint Sea Basing, to explore dynamics and policies
SHH I don't like the term Balanced Scorecard, because its creator, Bob Kaplan intended that each of the elements, including scustomer satisfaction, be a measure of internal operatiing performance. The whole idea behind S&R is measuring the gap between the value sought by the customer and the value delivered by the supplier. In this case, we are calling the enemy the customer, and must understand the negative value that informs the decision about which effects (benefits) are to be delivered.

25. Emerging Insights: Achieving the Tipping Point
Move now towards a joint, adaptive logistics capability based on the S&R concept
Charter a joint effort to co-evolve a network-centric capability rapidly from the bottom up
Lead disruptive change
Force cross-enterprise behavior
Foster an innovative public-private partnership
Industry
Academia
Add: THe warfighters have already made significant progress in demonstrating sense and respond behavior. It is incumbent upon DOD leadership to make at least as much progress in transforming the managerial framework so adaptive h=behavior is systematically fostered and exploited.