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PRECIS Generating User-friendly Climate Scenarios with PRECIS PRECIS Generating User-friendly Climate Scenarios with PRECIS Yinlong XU Yinlong XU Institute.

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Presentation on theme: "PRECIS Generating User-friendly Climate Scenarios with PRECIS PRECIS Generating User-friendly Climate Scenarios with PRECIS Yinlong XU Yinlong XU Institute."— Presentation transcript:

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2 PRECIS Generating User-friendly Climate Scenarios with PRECIS PRECIS Generating User-friendly Climate Scenarios with PRECIS Yinlong XU Yinlong XU Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing, China Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Tel & Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 E-mail: xuyl@ami.ac.cn xuyl@ami.ac.cn 3-5 March, 2010

3 Outline Outline Model and Methodology Model and Methodology Some Analysed Results on Climate Change Scenarios Some Analysed Results on Climate Change Scenarios Correction of Climate Scenarios outputs Correction of Climate Scenarios outputs Validation of the Corrected Climate Scenarios Validation of the Corrected Climate Scenarios Examples of Applications Examples of Applications Problems and Prospects for Future Work Problems and Prospects for Future Work

4 /Downscaling /Downscaling GCMs Horizontal resolution: hundreds km Impacts Models Downscaling Local details

5 A demo for RCM downscaling HadAM3H PRECIS A demo for RCM downscaling

6 PRECIS /What is PRECIS? PRECIS Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies PRECIS Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies Purpose 1: to develop the regional-level SRES climate scenarios over the world Purpose 1: to develop the regional-level SRES climate scenarios over the world Purpose 2: to provide the datasets for the impacts assessments of climate change at the regional-level Purpose 2: to provide the datasets for the impacts assessments of climate change at the regional-level SRES SRES SRES SRES

7 /PRECIS Interface

8 The climate change scenarios in China are developed based on SRES socio- economic assumptions of SRES SRES: IPCC 2000, Special Report on Emission Scenarios IPCC 2000 Special Report for Emission Scenarios SRES family group 40 scenario

9 PRECIS /Domain of PRECIS

10 PRECIS /PRECIS Job Status NCEP re-analysis data: 1979-2003 NCEP re-analysis data: 1979-2003 ECMWF re-analysis data: 1957-2001 ECMWF re-analysis data: 1957-2001 ECMWF re-analysis data: 1979-1993 ECMWF re-analysis data: 1979-1993 HadCM3 HadCM3 Baseline (1961-1990): No1 No2 No3 Baseline (1961-1990): No1 No2 No3 A2 (2071-2100): No1 No2 No3 A2 (2071-2100): No1 No2 No3 B2 (2071-2100) : No1 B2 (2071-2100) : No1 A1B (1961-2100): No1 No2 No3 A1B (1961-2100): No1 No2 No3 ECHAM4 ECHAM4 A2 (1961-2100): No1 A2 (1961-2100): No1 B2 (1961-2100) : No1 B2 (1961-2100) : No1

11 /Maximum Temperature /Lhasa /Chengdu /Maximum Temperature /Lhasa /Chengdu

12 Solar Radiation /Xian /Zhengzhou Solar Radiation /Xian /Zhengzhou

13 B2740 / Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenarioMaximum/minimum temperature

14 B2740 Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenario----precipitation

15 A2 Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under A2 scenario (2080s vs1961-1990) Temperature precipitation Annual Annual Winter Winter Summer Summer

16 Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1 Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1 CriteriaDefinition HD Daily maximum temperature > 35 Daily maximum temperature > 35 FD Daily minimum temperature <0 Daily minimum temperature <0 WD the number consecutive days with daily precipitation > 1mm R20mm extreme precipitation events with daily precipitation amounts greater than or equal to 20 mm

17 CriteriaDefinition RX5day maximum precipitation amount for the 5-day interval SDII ratio of the daily precipitation amount for wet days (daily precipitation amounts greater than or equal to 1 mm) to the number of wet day CDDCWD Consecutive dry days is calculated base on the number consecutive days with daily precipitation below 1mm Consecutive dry days is calculated base on the number consecutive days with daily precipitation greater 1mm TX95 put daily maximum temperature of one year in a increase order, then TX95 is defined as the 95 percentage of the maximum temperature of this year put daily maximum temperature of one year in a increase order, then TX95 is defined as the 95 percentage of the maximum temperature of this year Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1 Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1

18 A2 (HD) (a) (FD) (b) (CDD) (c) (WD) (d) (a) (b) (d) /Changes of Extreme Climate Events of HD, FD, CDD, and WD under A2 Scenario. 2080s vs 1961-1990 HD FD CDD WD

19 RX5daySDII) 2080s 1. R20mm, 2. 5 ( RX5day ), 3. ( SDII) 1961 1990 ( %) a. A2, b. B2 (b1) (a1) (b2) (a2) (b3) (a3) Changes of Extreme Climate Events of R20mm, RX5day under A2, B2 Scenarios 2080s vs 1961-1990

20 (b1) (a1) (b2) (a2) (b3) (a3) 2080s 1. (CDD), 2. (CWD), 3. (WD) 1961 1990 ( %) a. A2, b. B2 Changes of Extreme Climate Events of CDD, CWD, and WD under A2, B2 Scenarios 2080s vs 1961-1990

21 Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990 Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990 Duration Frequent

22 Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990 Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990

23 ( ) Application of the climate scenarios -1 ( ) Application of the climate scenarios -1 observation current situation future situation assessment BaselineFuture observation impact model

24 baseline current situation future situation assessment impact model future corrected ( ) Application of the climate scenarios-2 ( ) Application of the climate scenarios-2

25 Baseline climate scenario How to correct the scenarios data How to correct the scenarios data Observation Baseline Future climate scenario comparison

26 Comparison of the corrected and non-corrected results Comparison of the corrected and non-corrected results 3-1 1979 1993 (a, b b, d )

27 1979 1993 15 (1 2 3 d/a)

28 Rice sites Wheat sites Maize Rice,wheat Maize,wheat Rice,wheat,maize KM GY SX CS NC HK NN GZ FJ HLJ JL XJ QH NMG XZ DH The distribution of agricultural crop stations selected in this study in China 24 wheat experiment stations 19 rice experiment stations 13 maize experiment stations

29 Winter wheat Spring wheat

30 /Validation a ~ d : /No Correction e ~ h

31 Data application method Data application method observation Baseline Future climate scenario

32 /Impacts Assessments of Climate Change on Chinese Agriculture /Impacts Assessments of Climate Change on Chinese Agriculture PRECIS Daily Tmax/min, Pre, Srad Crop Varieties Soil Data Management Data Crop models Yield Changes, etc

33 PRECIS PRECIS Flowchart of Impacts Assessments with PRECIS Gridded Scenarios GIS technology scale 1:1,000,000 50×50km

34 CO2 -A2 With CO2 fertilization Wheat-A2 CO2 Different water conditions maize with CO2 fertilization -- Different scenarios Rice--irrigation A2B2

35 Extreme events have extreme impacts on natural ecosystems in China The impacts of extreme events on natural ecosystems in China under B2 scenario The impacts of extreme events on natural ecosystems in China under A2 scenario

36 /Changes of runoff in China / A2 B2 Similar to A2 scenario, but amplitude is not so large as A2 scenario The drought would be enhanced along the Yellow River While the potential flooding risk along the Yangtze River would increase under SRES A2 scenario

37 Problems and future work Problems and future work Just PRECIS-generated scenarios used PRECIS Just PRECIS-generated scenarios used PRECIS Problems: uncertainties : Problems: uncertainties : To generate more climate scenarios To generate more climate scenarios To produce much more user-friendly datasets To produce much more user-friendly datasets What s the next-step work? : What s the next-step work? : More GCMs GCM More GCMs GCM More RCMs-PRECIS, RegCM3 RCM More RCMs-PRECIS, RegCM3 RCM More scenarios: more jobs for SRES A1B More scenarios: more jobs for SRES A1B more RCPs scenarios more RCPs scenarios Resolution: 50km 25km Resolution: 50km 25km Daily-level hourly level Daily-level hourly level

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