1. The demography of agricultural supply and demand Natalie Jackson © Professor of Demography Director, Population Studies Centre >> National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis 2010 1

2. Key points Older average age of farmers well known –but seemingly invisible in debate over who may/ can / should buy NZ farms, farm prices etc Industrys market focus is on size and growth rates of national populations –Yet markets are driven less by size than composition (market segment - age, sex, culture, income, labour force/marital status etc) Population ageing will significantly affect both 2

3. Population Ageing Internal momentum of decline Internal momentum of increase 3

4. What has the ageing of farmers got to do with foreign ownership? Who may (can/should) buy NZ farms?

5. Stats NZ Customised Database Grain, Sheep and Beef Farmers N=38,634; av 48 years 5

6. Stats NZ Customised Database Dairy Farmers (2006) N=33,507; av 41 years 6

7. Stats NZ Customised Database Other Livestock Farmers (2006) N=9,303; av 47.5 years 7

8. Who you gonna call? 8Stats NZ Estimated Resident Population 2009, Waikato and NZ (unshaded) MalesFemales Demographic Dividend

9. Where are you farming? Matamata-Piako (16.5% 65+)Waipa (15.0% 65+) Percentage at each age 2009 (2006 unshaded)9

10. NZ: TAs with negative entry/exit ratios 10 39% 36%

11. Enter: a demographically tight labour market Australia 2007-2009 11

12. Succession planning is critically needed Who may buy NZ farms? Who can ? Who [maybe] should ? 12

13. What has population ageing got to do with farming markets? Who consumes what? 13

14. Who eats ice-cream? Who eats beef? Lets imagine.. That kids eat most of the ice-creams ** That adults eat most of the beef **** 14

15. Chinas age structure 2000-2010 Source: US Census Bureau International Database http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/15

16. Chinas age structure 2020-2030 Source: US Census Bureau International Database http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/16

17. Projected Population of China 17 Source: US Census Bureau International Database http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/

18. Assumption: 2 ltr per capita per year Ice-cream consumption in China projected by crude and age-weighted rates

19. Assumption: 2 kg per capita per year Beef consumption in China projected by crude and age-weighted rates

20. India (2000 and 2010) Source: US Census Bureau International Database http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/

21. India (2020 and 2030)

22. India will overtake China 22 Source: US Census Bureau International Database http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/

23. Assumption: 2 ltr per capita per year Ice-cream consumption in India projected by crude and age-weighted rates 23

24. Assumption: 2 kg per capita per year Beef consumption in India projected by crude and age-weighted rates 24

25. Japan…. 25 Source: US Census Bureau International Database http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/

26. Russia…* 26 Source: *as defined by US Census Bureau International Database http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/

27. Projected Population of Russia* 27 Source: *as defined by US Census Bureau International Database http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/

28. Summary Pay attention to age structure. Population ageing changes the consumption patterns of the population; slows, then stops growth –In the short to medium term, significant growth at middle to older ages assured –Need to follow the target / tailor the product Population ageing means competition for labour and industry participation of the young –Labour supply will be short – and cost more –The lack of sufficient numbers of young farmers in the pipeline needs to be considered when deliberating who may/can/should buy NZ farms.. 28

29. Population Studies Centre / National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA) natalie.jackson@waikato.ac.nz Thankyou 29

30. Why do populations age and stop growing? Increasing life expectancy causes more babies to live ~ eventually they turn into more elderly Declining fertility rates cause the base of the population pyramid to compress >> the top to expand Eventually the elderly outnumber the young, growth slows and stops because deaths first match, then exceed, births 30

31. Assumptions (Ice-Cream) (Beef)Ice-CreamBeef Ice-Cream (%)Beef (%) 0-451 5-9102 10-14204 15-19208 20-241510 25-2910 30-34510 35-39510 40-44510 45-49210 50-54110 55-59110 60-6411 65-691 70+1 75-791 80+1 TOTAL100