1. Eugene S. Takle Iowa State University gstakle@iastate.edu
Midwest Weather Working Group
Indianapolis, IN
7 October 2009

2. Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 31
1988: 26
2009 so far: 1

3. Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 13
1988: 10
2009 so far: 0

4. Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 13
1988: 10
2009 so far: 0

5. 6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years
Des Moines Airport Data
1983: 13
1988: 10
6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years
2009 so far: 0

6. Ames Data

7. Des Moines Airport Data

8. Des Moines Airport Data

9. State-Wide Average Data

11. State-Wide Average Data

12. Cedar Rapids Data

13. “One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “

14. Cedar Rapids Data

15. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

16. Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

17. December-January-February Temperature Change
4.0
3.5
A1B Emission Scenario
minus
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

18. Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

19. June-July-August Temperature Change
2.5
A1B Emission Scenario
minus
3.0
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

20. Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

21. December-January-February Precipitation Change
0.1
0.0
A1B Emission Scenario
minus
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

22. Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

23. June-July-August Precipitation Change
0.0
-0.1
A1B Emission Scenario
minus
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

24. Change in Annual Cloud Cover
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

25. Change in Annual Cloud Cover
-1.0
-1.5
A1B Emission Scenario
minus
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

26. Change in Diurnal Temperature Range
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

27. Change in Diurnal Temperature Range
-0.3
0.0
0.3
A1B Emission Scenario
minus
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

28. Change in Evaporation
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

29. Change in Evaporation A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus 1980-1999
0.2
0.1
A1B Emission Scenario
minus
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

30. Change in Soil Moisture
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

31. Change in Soil Moisture-5
A1B Emission Scenario
minus
Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

32. *Estimated from IPCC reports

33. *Estimated from IPCC reports

34. *Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports

36. Waxman-Markey Bill
Midwest activities relating to a “national climate service”
Question for Midwest Weather Working Group

37. TITLE I—CLEAN ENERGY
TITLE II—ENERGY EFFICIENCY
TITLE III—REDUCING GLOBAL WARMING POLLUTION
TITLE IV—TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY
TITLE VII—GLOBAL WARMING POLLUTION REDUCTION PROGRAM
TITLE VIII—ADDITIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS STANDARDS

38. TITLE IV—TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY
Subtitle E—Adapting to Climate Change PART 1—DOMESTIC ADAPTATION: Subpart A—National Climate Change Adaptation Program
NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS.
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION SERVICES
NATIONAL CLIMATE SERVICE

39. Corn and Climate Workshop (Ames, 2008)
Midwest regional office of the National Weather Service has been exploring climate needs assessment for the Midwest (Doug Kluck)
Corn and Climate Workshop (Ames, 2008)
Regional Climate Services Planning Meeting for Agriculture, September 9-10, 2009 – Champaign/Urbana, IL
Pilot project (Steve Hilberg, Dev Niyogi, Gene Takle) on agriculture needs assessment
Calendar for weather-driven agriculture decsions

40. Rather, “what do you do and when do you do it?”
Don’t ask “what climate information do you need and when do you need it?”
Rather, “what do you do and when do you do it?”
When (month) are decisions made?
What is the lead time related to that decision?
2 hours (weather forecast)
2 days (weather forecast)
2 weeks (ensemble climate simulation)
2 months (ensemble climate simulation)
6 months (ensemble climate simulation)
2 years (ensemble climate simulation)

41. What decision tools that you currently use can be driven by hourly values of future meteorological or soil variables?
When (month) are these decisions made?
What lead time is needed for these weather conditions?