1. Global Trends of GTS Development
G.H.B. Verberg
President International Gas Union
GTS-2005, Moscow, 12 April 2005

2. INTERNATIONAL GAS UNION Covers >95 % of World Gas Sales ‘Spokesman’ of the Gas Industry
Non Members
Membership from 67 countries and 18 Associated Members
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

3. Global Trends of GTS Development (1)
Tracking the strong growth in gas demand by timely investments;
Complying to modern safety and environmental standards;
Conditioning for (almost) real time information flows for regulators and third parties;
Implementing management systems, including PIMS, which enables management also to handle benchmarking.
10/11/2018
GTS, Moscow, April 2005

4. Demand not in regions of supplies
Fuel demand increases steadily: general economic growth (developed markets), fast growing ‘emerging economies’ (Asia)
New gas fields lie in remote areas and require long distance transport
New gas supply projects are technically and geopolitically more complex and more expensive
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

5. Global Energy Demand Forecast IEA WEO 2004
159
139
118
187
100
100 54
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

6. Emerging Markets Put Their Mark On Hydrocarbons Demand
% of Global Hydrocarbons Demand for each region
& Market Share oil/gas/coal per Region
2002
2020
2020
2002
2002
2020
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

7. Energy consumption in perspective
1/3 of world
population
IEA data year 2002
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

8. Incremental Global Gas Demand from 2002 to 2010, 2020
largest liquefaction train: 7.8 mtpa (Qatar)
148 60
2002 to 2010
2002 to 2020
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

9. Costs in the LNG chain Average price per ship ($ million) 8 5 6 7 9 1011
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2.5% p.a.
Upstream costs ($/boe)
Liquifaction costst transformed
($ per ton of capacity)
From a presentation by BP
(february 2003)
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

10. LNG trade history and perspectives15
Bcm
LNG trade as %
of total gas market 11 8 6
History (CEDIGAZ)
Forecast (IEA weo 2004)
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

11. International LNG Trade: Connecting Markets
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

12. Transport by pipeline: some figures
Long distances to cover (Iran-India 2775 km, investment > $4b;
Alaska-Chicago >5000 km;
Russian gas fields-W.EU up to 4000km)
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

13. PIPELINES: RUSSIA -> EUROPE
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14. Costs of Transport for Different Routes
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

15. Moving Energy: Gas or Electricity lines ?
Transmission losses
Long distance transport
Per 100 km: gas ~0,3%, electricity ~1%
Distribution to end users
Gas: none electricity ~7% (stepwise transformation to lower voltage)
De vraag voor de power sector is: power maken nabij de bron van de fossil fuel en de electriciteit vervoeren of de fuel vervoeren?
Dat zal per geval bekeken worden, maar duidelijk is wel dat voor de power sector het voordeligste is de brandstof te vervoeren behalve in geval van lignite, dat een groot volume heeft en veel residu oplevert.
In de distributie leidt gas tot minder verliezen, en dat kan reden zijn de power op te wekken zo dicht mogelijk bij de verbruikers waar dat mogelijk is: combined heat and power in de industry, micro chp in small businesses and at home, wat een brug slaat naar de micro wkk voor thuisgebruik
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

16. Global Trends of GTS Development (2)
Tracking the strong growth in gas demand by timely investments;
Complying to modern safety and environmental standards;
Conditioning for (almost) real time information flows for regulators and third parties;
Implementing management systems, including PIMS, which enables management also to handle benchmarking.
10/11/2018
GTS, Moscow, April 2005

17. CO2 emission from power plants
spread due to type of coal (lignite/hard coal)
and technology (old/new-high-efficiency)
CCGT as Back UP
Sources: life-cycle assessment of electricity generation systems and applications for climate change policy analysis, Meier, 2002, published on website Nuclear Energy Institute; own data; IEA
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

18. CO2 emission from conventional and modern coal power plants vs Gas-CCGT
India heeft voornamelijk coal power plants.
Maar zelfs de modernste coal technology geeft forse emissies
IEA world energy outlook 2004
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

19. CO2eq Emissions From GTS
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

20. LOW CO2eq emissions from GTS are drivers in the competition
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

21. Global Trends of GTS Development (3)
Tracking the strong growth in gas demand by timely investments;
Complying to modern safety and environmental standards;
Conditioning for (almost) real time information flows for regulators and third parties;
Implementing management systems, including PIMS, which enables management also to handle benchmarking.
10/11/2018
GTS, Moscow, April 2005

22. Information flows not only for own management!
General public and authorities want reliable and up to date information at least with respect to safety, environmental and reliability;
Third parties and regulators claim relevant information of GTS for the use of GTS for gas transport;
Management needs good information systems to manage in the present complicated business environment !
10/11/2018
GTS, Moscow, April 2005

23. Global Trends of GTS Development (4)
Tracking the strong growth in gas demand by timely investments;
Complying to modern safety and environmental standards;
Conditioning for (almost) real time information flows for regulators and third parties;
Implementing management systems, including PIMS, which enables management also to handle benchmarking.
10/11/2018
GTS, Moscow, April 2005

24. PIMS, Benchmarking, Regulation
Pipeline Integrity Management System (PIMS) is a crucial management tool for GTS;
Regulators/Authorities require more and more public accountability and responsibility for the performance and management of GTS;
Regulators/Authorities introduce more and more benchmarking to stimulate improvements
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

25. Benchmarking
Regulators/Authorities are using benchmarking more and more;
The sale of regional gridsystems by the National Grid Transco (UK) will facilitate benchmarking between different grid cies in the UK;
In several countries grid cies are being benchmarked by the regulator to stimulate cost reduction and to improve performance (reliability, safety, environment)
10/11/2018
GTS, Moscow, April 2005

26. Thank you, for your attention
See you in Amsterdam!
23rd World Gas Conference and Exhibition
June 5 –
…see you in Busan, South Korea, May 2005
at the ICT2005,
7th Congress on ICT in the Energy Business !!

27. IGU mission:
actively and directly promote the technical and economic progress of the global gas industry
work towards improving the competitiveness of gas in the world energy markets, thereby emphasising sound environmental performance, safety and reliability
promote transfer of technology and know-how, serving as a global information clearing house
maximise value to its members and to gas customers
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005

28. IGU’s objectives
Gas as the fuel of choice preceding a sustainable energy system
(Bridging fuel)
Promotion of the gas industry as a responsible corporate citizen
Promotion of technology, industry and customer focus
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GTS, Moscow, April 2005