1. Welcome to INTERTANKO Tanker Seminar Athens 24 October 2001
International Association of Independent Tanker Owners
Safe Transport, Clean Seas, Free Competition
Welcome to
INTERTANKO Tanker Seminar Athens
24 October 2001
Colin Cridland…Finn Englesen Jr…Jarle Hammer… Odd Hassel…Marin Stopford…Erik Ranheim

2. ..safe transport..
.. clean seas..
..free competition

3. Competitive Free market? Not the law of the jungle
Common rules, standards
Competitive

4. Competitive Focus on Price, commodity Sanctions, but
No premium for excellence

5. Preconditions for free Competition
&
Safeer Transport, Cleaner Seas,
Transparency
High min standards
Premium for quality

6. Transparency
“ asymmetric information ” …….bad quality pushes good quality from the market because of an information gap……..
George Akerlof
Michael Spence
Joseph Stiglitz
………whoever has the least information can never be confident about what is being traded…………..

7. The sky was the limit
Allan Greenspan, 96, ”irrational exuberance”

8. Tanker deletions and deliveries

9. VLCC movements

10. ..outstanding questions..

11. How far can newbuilding prices fall?

12. What is the pulling power of Asian countries

13. How will the US Energy Plan affect tankers?

14. ..added uncertainty..
..Cheney Report…US National Energy Policy..

15. Average monthly VLCC rates and
Middle East crude oil production

17. Tanker market conditions change fast Possible Jokers, scenarios;
Looking ahead
Bleak outlook, but
Tanker market conditions change fast
Possible Jokers, scenarios;
Iraq,
OPEC collapse,
Choke point disruption
Erika
Extra cold winter