1. The Impact, Costs, and Benefits of NC’s Early College Model
Julie Edmunds, SERVE Center at UNCG
Fatih Unlu and Tiffany Tsai, RAND Corporation
Elizabeth Glennie, RTI International

2. North Carolina’s model…
Small high schools that blur the line between high school and college
Mostly located on college campuses
Serve students in grades 9-12 or 13
Targeted at students who are underrepresented in college
First generation; low-income; minority
Goal is to get a high school diploma and two years of college credit/Associate degree

3. Powerful Teaching and Learning
Students Graduating from High School Ready for College
College Ready
Powerful Teaching and Learning
Purposeful Design
Professionalism
Leadership
Personalization
Articulated program of study, grades 9-12 or 13 leading to Associate’s degree, college readiness activities
Academic and affective supports, supportive relationships
High-quality, rigorous, and relevant instruction, ongoing assessment
Make sure to discuss target populations
Shared leadership, shared vision
Small size, location on college campus, flexible use of time
Ongoing professional development, staff collaboration, collective responsibility

4. METHODOLOGY

5. Research Questions
What is the impact of the early college model on students’ postsecondary credential attainment?
What are the costs of the early college pathway compared to the traditional high school pathway?
What are the benefits to society of the early college?

6. Experimental Study of the Model’s Impact
Funded by three grants from the Institute of Education Sciences
Twelve-year experimental study comparing students who applied to and were randomly offered a slot in the ECHS with students who applied for and were randomly turned down
Examines the impact of the model on core outcomes: coursetaking, academic performance, behavior, attitudes, dropout, graduation from high school, postsecondary enrollment, college credit attainment, postsecondary performance and postsecondary credentials

7. Sample Students apply and schools do some screening
Random assignment within the “eligible population”
Full sample: 19 ECHS, 44 lotteries, 4000 students
Cohorts: through
Attrition varies across data sources and outcomes: generally low (<10%) and similar between treatment and control groups.
Low noncompliance with random assignment: 13% no-shows, 2% crossovers
Control students attend “business as usual”

8. Data Sources
Student background characteristics and high school data from NC Department of Public Instruction
Postsecondary credential attainment from the National Student Clearinghouse
College coursetaking data from UNC and NC Community College Systems
High school expenditure data from NCDPI
Postsecondary expenditure data from Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS)

9. Analysis Intent-to-Treat
Multivariate linear regression models which includes
lottery indicators (or lottery fixed effects)
treatment indicator
baseline student characteristics, including demographics and 8th grade math and reading achievement
Report cluster-robust standard errors to account for clustering of students within ECHS or regular high schools
Estimate separate models for 4 subgroups: minority, first generation, economically disadvantaged, and underprepared for high school
Compared results for sub-group with results for corresponding group (ex. minority and non-minority)
Each student is weighted by their likelihood of getting into the lottery. Because the random assignment and the analyses occur at the same level, we have chosen to use regression with site-level indicators. This is the methodology used by IES charter school study.

10. Impacts, Costs and benefits

11. Adjusted Treatment Mean Adjusted Impact, ITT estimate
Impact on Postsecondary Credentials: Full Sample
Adjusted Treatment Mean
Control Mean
Adjusted Impact, ITT estimate
% Attainment of any postsecondary credential by eight years after 9th grade (N=1671 students)
37.0
22.2
14.8**
% Attainment of associate degree
28.4
8.8
19.6**
% Attainment of technical credential
2.2
3.0
-0.8
% Attainment of Bachelor’s degree
18.1
12.8
5.3**
*Significant at p≤.05; **significant at p≤.01. 11

12. *Significant at p≤.05; **significant at p≤.01.
Difference between subgroups is statistically significant.
*Significant at p≤.05; **significant at p≤.01. 12

13. Early college is a combined model (college and high school) so costs and benefits IS challenging…

14. Conceptualizing costs
High school diploma
Two-year degree
Four-year degree

15. Calculated Expenditures for what students actually did
HS expenditures excluded special ed, capital expenditures, & district-level costs
Credential
Sample
Cost factors
High School Diploma
All students who received a h.s. diploma (1,999 treatment, 1,395 control)
Students for whom the h.s. diploma was a terminal degree (807 treatment/713 control)
H.S. expenditures plus
cost for any college courses students took in high school
Associate degree
All students who received an Associate degree (may have gone on) and have data from NC community college system (653 treatment/ 116 control)
H.S. expenditures plus cost for any college courses students took until they received their Associate degree
Bachelor’s degree
All students who received a Bachelor’s degree and have complete data from the NC system (60 Treatment/28 control)
H.S. expenditures plus cost for any college courses students took until they received their Bachelor’s degree

16. Cost to an educational credential (from Society’s Perspective)
Early College Pathway
Traditional High School Pathway
High school diploma (all students including those with postsecondary credentials)
$36,906
$26,656
High school diploma (students with maximum of HS diploma only)
$32,019
$24,859
HS diploma plus a NC Community College two-year degree
$45,762
$48,356
HS diploma plus a UNC system four-year degree
$91,192
$121,626

17. Total credits attempted are similar, with early college Students earning more from community college system
Total:165.6
Total:170.1

18. GPA in the UNC system—after leaving early college
Adjusted Treatment Mean
Unadjusted Control Mean
Impact Estimate
Cumulative UNC System GPA
Through two years after 12th grade (grade 14)
2.60
2.56
.04
Through three years after 12th grade (grade 15)
2.62
2.59
.03
First semester
2.78
2.71
.06

19. Estimating benefits
Benefits estimated by RAND for specific racial and gender sub- groups (e.g., AA males, Hispanic females) by increased educational attainment compared to h.s. dropouts
Includes benefits like increased taxes, reduced welfare, judicial costs
Each student was placed in one of five buckets based on actual or predicted final educational attainment:
High school dropout
High school dropout, some college
High school graduate
High school graduate, some college
Four-year college graduate
Each student received an estimated benefit for their subgroup
Impacts on societal benefit were estimated with our impact model .

20. Lifetime benefits to society are higher for early college
Each cohort of 4,000 NC early college students who graduate annually would result in an increase of $92 million of lifetime societal benefits.

21. Conclusions
More early college students are earning postsecondary credentials, resulting in an increased benefit to society.
They are doing this at a lower cost to society than the traditional route.
Next steps will be to (hopefully!) explore the impacts on wage and earnings.