1. Structuring Risk Management Decisions Using Scenario Planning Methods
Stephen D. Hart, PhD
An Illustration Using the RSVP
Structuring Risk Management Decisions Using Scenario Planning Methods

2. Rationale
The RSVP is a new set of structured professional judgment (SPJ) guidelines designed to facilitate comprehensive, treatment-oriented sexual violence risk assessments
It builds on other SPJ guidelines, such as the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20)

3. Administration Case information Presence of risk factors
HCR-20 for CONREP
18-19 March 2008
Administration
Step 1
Case information
Step 2
Presence of risk factors
Step 3
Relevance of risk factors
Step 4
Scenarios of sexual violence
Step 5
Management strategies
Step 6
Conclusory opinions
© 2008 by Stephen D. Hart, PhD

4. Always consider past behavior
HCR-20 for CONREP
18-19 March 2008
Step 4
Always consider past behavior
Consider possible development or evolution of offense behavior
© 2008 by Stephen D. Hart, PhD

5. Basic Scenarios Repeat
HCR-20 for CONREP
18-19 March 2008
Basic Scenarios
Repeat
Consider all past violence, not just most recent
Twist
Change in motivation, victimology, behavioral topography
Escalation
Including lethal or “worst case”
Improvement
Including desistence or “best case”
© 2008 by Stephen D. Hart, PhD

6. Identify and target relevant risk factors
HCR-20 for CONREP
18-19 March 2008
Step 5
Identify and target relevant risk factors
Specify management strategies and tactics
© 2008 by Stephen D. Hart, PhD

7. Victim Safety Planning
HCR-20 for CONREP
18-19 March 2008
Strategies
Monitoring
Surveillance or repeated assessment
Supervision
Imposition of controls or restriction of freedoms
Treatment
Rehabilitation, including further assessment
Victim Safety Planning
Enhancement of security resources for identifiable targets
© 2008 by Stephen D. Hart, PhD

8. Evaluative Research

9. Interrater Reliability
Interrater reliability of presence and relevance ratings for individual risk factors is good to excellent
There is no difference in reliability for ratings of presence and relevance of individual risk factors
Interrater reliability of domain and overall ratings is good to excellent
Interrater reliability of summary judgments is excellent

10. Concurrent Validity
Concurrent validity with respect to SPJs and ARAIs is good
Most strongly related to SVR-20 and SORAG, likely due to content overlap
The common variance among instruments can be accounted for in large part by psychopathy
Various RSVP summary judgments have different concurrent validities
Case prioritization ratings are more strongly related to actuarial scores than are other ratings

11. Predictive Validity
Sexual violence risk assessments made using the RSVP have moderate predictive validity
Equivalent to that of SVR-20, ARAIs
Similar to SPJs and ARAIs in past research

12. Future Research

13. Scenarios How do evaluators develop scenarios?
Talk-aloud analysis to examine case information, risk factors, and implicit theories used by evaluators
What is the nature of the scenarios generated?
Content analysis to examine numbers, details, distinctiveness
What is the interrater reliability of scenarios of future sexual violence?
Evaluate similarity of scenarios between raters/within cases versus between raters/between cases

14. Management Strategies
How do evaluators develop plans?
Talk-aloud analysis to examine case information, risk factors, and implicit theories used by evaluators
What is the nature of the plans generated?
Content analysis to examine numbers, details, distinctiveness
What is the interrater reliability of strategies?
Evaluate similarity of plans between raters/within cases versus between raters/between cases

15. Efficacy Do scenarios and plans influence improve case management?
RCT to evaluate improvements in service delivery and violence prevention

16. Correspondence
Stephen D. Hart, PhD Psychology Department Simon Fraser University University Drive Burnaby, BC Canada V5A 1S6