1. Robots and jobs: Empirical evidence and the citizen's perspective
Bjoern Juretzki – Assistant to the Director
DG CONNECT – Digital Industry

2. Our study on robots and jobs
First published in 2014, just updated with more recent data from 2012
Based on European Manufacturing Survey with company-level data from around 3000 companies from seven European countries
Covers all manufacturing sectors and all company sizes, representative data
Questions about production processes, technical equipment in company, etc.
Unique source of information!

3. Dissemination of industrial robots
Global operational stock of industrial robots from 2005 to 2014 including a forecast for 2018
Global
2,327,000
Europe
1,480,778
1,332,218
1,235,389
1,153,097
+60%
1,035,301
1,059,162
994,264
1,020,731
949,823
922,838
32%
33%
33%
33%
34%
33%
32%
31%
29%
28%
22%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2018*
continuous rise of the stock of operational industrial robots between 2005 and 2014, except for a decline in 2009 due to global economic crisis
the operational stock of industrial robots in Europe is growing slower than in the rest of the world

4. Descriptive results
Bigger firms are more intense user of robots than smaller firms (more investment capacity, larger volumes, more experience)
Transport equipment heaviest user of robotics followed plastics, metal and electronics
The larger the batch size, the more robots were used
Clear gap emerging between large and small firms
Spain has the most companies which use robots followed by France, Switzerland and Sweden (Germany second to last)

5. Labour productivity Main determinants (in this order):
Vertical range (covering the whole chain from components to complete systems)
Country
Sector
Export orientation
Use of robots
Companies with intensive utilisation of industrial robots show significant higher levels of labour productivity

6. Total factor productivity (TFP)
TFP is the portion of output not explained by the amount of inputs used in production
May account for up to 60% of economic growth
Main determinants (in this order):
Vertical range
Sector
Export orientation
No additional effect of utilisation of industrial robots, positive effect probably eaten up by high investment costs

7. Employment trends
Key factors influencing employment trends are turnover development (the better, the more employment is created) and firm age (the younger, the more employment is created)
Despite a positive effect on labour productivity, no negative effect of (intensive) use of industrial robots but rather a neutral or even a slightly positive one

8. Impact of robot use on relocating production
Firms which use robots intensively have a drastically smaller probability to relocate outside Europe than firms using no robots or using them less intensely
The effect of robot use resp. intensive robot use differs greatly by firm size
14%
Probability drops by 7-9% points
Probability drops by 1-2% points 2% 5%

9. Recent OECD study
"The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis"
Task-based approach vs. occupation-based approach
Taking into account heterogeneity of workers' tasks within occupations
With this approach, on average across the 21 OECD countries, only 9% of jobs are automatable

10. The citizens' perspective
Two Eurobarometer surveys on people's attitudes towards robots and autonomous systems (2012 and 2014)
Representative survey for all 28 EU MS
Broad range of questions covering whether people have ever used a robot, what their perception of robots are, how they feel about certain robotic applications
Also covers attitudes towards robots and jobs

11. General view on robots Most positive: SE, DK, FI, Netherlands
Most negative: MT, PT, EL, CY

12. Specific attitudes Most positive: FI, NL, DK, CZ
Most negative: PT, ES, EL, CY

13. Replacebility

14. Conclusion
Empirical evidence: Picture not as gloomy as some people and journalists want us to believe
Robots can be a great tool for older workers
Still: There are fears of citizens – and these fears have increased and must be taken seriously
But: Citizens exposed to robots fear them less
More of a perception problem than a real problem (yet)
Monitor effects of robotics more closely, develop better methodologies
Understand better what robots can actually do, especially in comparison with humans
Engage in comprehensive outreach measures