1. Insurance and Other Financing Mechanisms Gordon McBean and Paul Kovacs Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction Canada Presentation to: IPCC Working Group II Scoping Meeting: Possible Special Report on Extreme Events and Disasters: Managing the Risks Oslo, Norway 23-26 March 2009

2. Issues for Governments Climate change Disaster Risk Reduction International Development

3. UN Convention on Climate Change Article 2 - Objective … stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. Prevention of DANGER requires reducing the impacts of extreme events – disaster risk reduction.

4. World Summit on Sustainable Development - WSSD Action Plan included: IV. Protecting and managing the natural resource base of economic and social development 37. An integrated, multi-hazard, inclusive approach … Actions are required at all levels to: … (a) Strengthen the role of the ISDR …; (e) Improve techniques and methodologies for assessing the effects of climate change, and encourage the continuing assessment … by the IPCC; Connecting hazards-climate-sustainable development

5. World Conference on Disaster Reduction, Kobe, January 2005 Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) Priorities for Action 1.Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation. 2.Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. 3.Reduce the underlying risk factors. IPCC roles in assessment

6. Issues for Governments Climate change Disaster Risk Reduction International Development

7. International Development Issues for Governments Climate change Disaster Risk Reduction Risk Management Bring together in a framework of - RISK MANAGEMENT

8. Insurance Insurance has long been about the collective management of risk – RISK MANAGEMENT –Chinese marine transport from 3,000 BC –Great urban fires of the 1600s and 1700s Managing the catastrophic risk –Pooling modest premiums collected from many that reflect individual risk to pay for the catastrophic losses of a few. –Long-standing focus on promoting adaptation to prevent loss of life and property damage. –Now SEVERE WEATHER damage is growing much faster than other claims. Over the past 30 years global severe weather insurance claims have increased 20 fold.

9. Severe weather claims paid Annual global insurance disaster claims, US$B 20-fold increase since 1970s! Changing climate Aging infrastructure More people and infrastructure at risk Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction Building resilient communities

10. Global weather damage Annual average disaster damage, $B(US)1997 - 2006 Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction All other countries Highly developed countries

11. Global weather fatalities Annual average number of people killed, thousands, 1997 - 2006 Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction All other countries Highly developed countries

12. Disasters and Deaths Development Highly developed Medium Least Deaths per disaster 22 145 1,052 Disasters and GDP Honduras – Hurricane 199875% of GDP Turkey – Earthquake, 19998% of GDP United States – Hurricane, 1992<1% of GDP IFRC, 2001; Handmer, 2003

13. Insurance Today: Developed countries - Primary mechanism to manage the risk of property damage and support economic recovery as a result of extreme events. –Worlds largest industry by revenue (annual premiums $4T) World-wide insurance and reinsurance companies. Thousands of insurance companies competing in local markets. Developing countries – little insurance coverage - poorest and most vulnerable

14. Strengths and weaknesses Industries: life and health; property and casualty insurance. Climate change: –life, auto and liability insurance - little measurable impact compared to other shocks ($, aids). –profound impact on the property insurance and reinsurance industries. –Will continue to challenge the sector over next 30 or 40 years –No impact yet on the liability insurance industry, but some believe that the future impact may be significant –IPCC Report could further explore this issue.

15. HAZARD : potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that MAY cause the loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation. VULNERABILITY : conditions determined by physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards. Disasters result when there is the intersection of a hazard and a vulnerability Mitigation/prevention Preparedness Response Recovery Climate Change Remember DRR – Mitigation Approx. equals CCA Insurance

16. Changes happening Insurers usually slow to adapt, unless confronted by a major shock to the industry. –Hurricane Andrew in 1992 - 2004 and 2005 hurricanes –risks to Florida and other coastal states –Wildfires - risk more advanced in California and Australia –Floods - risk most advanced in the U.K. and continental Europe. With escalating severe weather claims, insurance is: –starting to apply proven fire risk techniques to climate risks –learning how to measure climate related risks –working to identify and promote best adaptation practices –communicating information to society Insurance is only beginning to appear as a financial tool in developing countries IPCC Report could investigate the opportunities and challenges.

17. Financial tools and protection - developing countries? Microfinance approaches in India and other countries Micro-insurance –Knowledge and information –Local capacity –Financial issues Some initiatives, –Munich Climate Insurance Initiative –Association of Small Island States –…–… Asian Development Bank and the World Bank IPCC Report needs to explore and clarify how these could be most effective.

18. Microinsurance Infrastructure – but also crop yields, livelihoods and assets, and personal safety. Figure 1: Breakdown of literature groupings Literature review needs to go well beyond climate field. Insurance and other approaches to risk.

19. Areas for analysis How to mainstream CCA and DRR into national policies and programs – in developed and developing countries –Can insurance be a mechanism to bring CCA and DRR together? Insurance Regulatory regimes – what makes them work Information, data, warnings –Roles of risk assessment and uncertainty –Rich literature on insurance and disasters – academic and grey People and their choices – e.g., why invest, confidence Opportunities and challenges for extending insurance and other financial mechanisms to assist in the reduction of costs in developing countries. IPCC Report should explore the risk management approaches and the constraints – data, information, methodologies … Role of a major private sector in the climate issue – positive influence and how to enhance.

20. Mechanisms to manage financial risks from direct impacts of climate change in developing countries UNFCCC Technical paper 2008/9 Market insurance and other financial risk-transfer solutions Examination of the interplay and potential synergy between these different potential solutions, including insurance-related actions. Opportunities for non-insurance instruments as part of the adaptation provisions of a 2012 agreement. There is a literature for IPCC to build upon. Questions of who and how to pay. Role of developing countries, role of international financial mechanisms, roles of …

21. How can the international climate change discussions accelerate the appropriate use of insurance mechanisms to protect the worlds poor and support adaptation? IPCC Report –UNFCCC mechanisms –Bali Action Plan –Nairobi Work Programme on IVA to CC –…–… Non-climate forums –Global Platform meetings of UN ISDR; –International Disaster and Risk Conferences, Davos; –…–… Discussion and identification of mechanisms to move this agenda ahead. Role for IPCC Report

22. Vulnerability of Asian coastal cities CITIES AT RISK Developing Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change in Asias Coastal Megacities February 26-28th, 2009 Bangkok, Thailand IPCC Report should look at slow events – sea level rise – and fast events – typhoons – and impacts.

23. Integrated Research on Disaster Risk ( IRDR) Addressing the challenge of natural and human-induced environmental hazards. ICSU, ISSC, UN ISDR

24. Objective 1: Characterization of hazards, vulnerability and risk –1.1: identifying hazards and vulnerabilities leading to risks; –1.2: forecasting hazards and assessing risks; and –1.3: dynamic modelling of risk. Objective 2: Effective decision making in complex and changing risk contexts –2.1: Identifying relevant decision-making systems and their interactions –2.2: Understanding decision making in the context of environmental hazards; and –2.3: Improving the quality of decision-making practice.

25. Objective 3: Reducing risk and curbing losses through knowledge-based actions –3.1: Vulnerability assessments; –3.2: Effective approaches to risk reduction 1.Capacity building 2.Case studies and demonstration projects 3.Assessment, data management and monitoring Cross-Cutting Themes

26. Concluding Comments Insurance and other Financing Mechanisms Invest today for a safer tomorrow Important topics for addressing: –Climate Change Adaptation –Disaster Risk Reduction –Linking them – scientifically and as response strategies How to reduce impacts and enhancing recovery Need to go beyond climate change Much to learn and to assess but major benefits from a good report.