1. Future of Hydrological Research: a global overview
András Bárdossy

2. Introduction
The next appearance of Halley’ comet is on July 28, 2061

3. Introduction The next appearance of Halley’ comet is on July 28, 2061
Will it rain next Monday in Durban?

4. Introduction
Number of raindrops in a small catchment during an event?

5. Introduction Number of raindrops in a small catchment during an event?
75 km2 (Goldersbach) 12mm in 1 hour
= raindrops
In a line 107 km 10 times Moon and back
One cannot
predict, model or measure
each raindrop …

6. Observations + Laws = Predictions
Incomplete observations
Partial coverage
Indirect measurements
Laws
High variability of the parameters
Hydrology is not a science to impress – it is a necessity, linked to decision making

7. Modeling of the water cycle is complicated
Mathematical modeling is the art of translating problems into mathematical formulations
Limit the model to
certain processes
geographical areas
Assumptions
Processes
Variables (observations)

8. Modeling in data rich environments:
Focus on the laws and the parameters
Modeling in data scarce environments
Assembling knowledge and observations
There is no single model and method that fits all.

11. Remotely sensed precipitation

12. Kokcha river at Khojaghar

13. Discharge downstream

15. Kokcha

16. Water supply of Lima

17. February snow cover decreases
Marca
2007
1999

18. Elevation model and observations

20. Action: water transfer from the Atlantic side of the Andes

21. Rems catchment modeled using WASIM-ETH (Pawan Kumar Thapa)

22. Surface runoff using different assumptions on unobservable variables
Good integral performance with strong differences in the details a) b) c) d)

23. Remaining 100% difference in surface runoff volume
Surface runoff using different assumptions on unobservable variables assuming certain dependencies
Remaining 100% difference in surface runoff volume
SCE-UA Parameter
Para. set 1
Para. set 2
Para. set 7

24. Areal precipitation from daily interpolation (105 km2 in the Black Forrest)

25. Summary Incomplete information  uncertainty
Uncertainty has to be quantified – reduced if possible
Observations
Laws (models) – parameters
Uncertainty has to be reduced
Observations – direct and indirect
Scientific advances
Design and management for the future
Past information
Climate change
We do not know the present nor the past but would like to know the future.

26. Thanks for your attention!