1. Risk Analysis Systems, Detecting VAT Carousels Jerome Bryssinck, Director, SAS Institute
Copyright © 2011, SAS Institute Inc. All rights reserved.

2. Investigation results
Belgium
France

3. A real life situation

4. Solution Ultra-early detection system based on
International systems
Eurofisc
National Data
Risk Analysis / Advanced Analytics
Approach applicable to every EU country
3 months to results
Insourced activity

5. FPS FINANCE (BELGIUM), VAT Carrousels
Business Problem
VAT Carousels Fraud were a Billion € problem for the Belgian Government.
This fraud typology is a high velocity fraud: “Carousel frauds are like floods. It is futile to believe that after the storm we can put back water in the riverbed with buckets. What is needed is to build dykes to prevent overflows  ».
The Tax Department is overloaded with data relevant for VAT Carousels Fraud ( tax-payers, VAT return, Intra-community transactions).
SAS Approach
The solution is used to detect companies with a high probability of being involved in VAT carousels. The SAS Hybrid approach provides ultra-early detection as from the first suspect VAT return or other suspicious behavior. This Hybrid approach combines network analysis, business rules, predictive modeling and anomaly detection. The combination of these methods enables to discover new networks and to monitor known networks. The models are highly accurate (80% true positive rate). This makes the SAS Hybrid approach the ideal tax auditor.
Highlights
VAT carrousel fraud reduced by 98% (from 1.1 Billion € to Billion €)
Ultra-early detection
SAS hybrid approach provides a high accuracy model (80% true positive rate)
Results
The result is a reduction by 98% (from 1.1 Billion € to Billion €) of the VAT carrousel fraud. Analytics was key in achieving this result. The models are not only very accurate (80% true positive rates), they also provide ultra-early detection as from the first VAT declaration. VAT Carousels are now a controlled phenomenon. The system also enables international collaboration by identifying suspicious companies abroad.

6. Benefits VAT Carousels is now a controlled phenomenon
INCREASE DETECTION RATES
List of Suspected Fraud (80% True positives)
INCREASE EFFICIENCY
3 weeks pre-investigation
=>
5 minutes pre-investigation
VAT Carousels is now a controlled phenomenon

7. Thank you

8. Contact Ing. Jozef Benčík – Obchodný riaditeľ Mobile: +421 903 276 966
SAS Slovakia, s.r.o. ▪ Lazaretská 12 ▪  Bratislava
Jerome Bryssinck – Riaditeľ kompetenčného centra pre boj s podvodmi SAS Belgicko
Mobile +32 (0)
SAS Institute nv/sa ▪ Hertenbergstraat 6, 3080 Tervuren, Belgium
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