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Published byMarvin Pierce Modified over 6 years ago
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2018: A Return To Normal Greg Flower Wealth Management
Tuesday, February 6, 2018 Southern Alberta Jubilee Auditorium
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Disclaimer Important Information: This document is not to be construed as a public offering of securities in any jurisdiction in Canada. Offering of units in the Arrow Global Growth Fund are made pursuant to the Confidential Offering Memorandum (offering memorandum) only to those investors who meet certain eligibility or minimum purchase requirements. Important information about the fund including the fund’s fundamental investment objective is contained in the offering memorandum, a copy of which may be obtained from Arrow Capital Management Inc. Please read the offering memorandum carefully before investing. The information and materials in this document are for informational purposes only. They are not intended as investment, financial or other advice. The information included in this document is not an offer to sell. While the information and material in this document are believed to be accurate at the time they are prepared, Arrow Capital Management Inc. (and its affiliates, subsidiaries or sub-advisors) cannot give any assurance that they are accurate, complete or current at all times. Past returns are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Actual results will vary. This document is confidential and is intended solely for the information of the person to which it has been delivered. These pages are not complete without the Disclaimer(s). 2
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Arrow Capital Management Inc.
An investment firm with expertise in global alternative and active portfolio management Arrow was established in 1999 AUM of over C$1.1 billion Partners and individual employees are largest investors in Arrow funds - 100% employee-owned Offices in Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto Founding Member of AIMA Canada 3
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Forecast 1: Volatility to Rise
Low Rates = Income Generation Strategy = Speculation Source: Cornerstone Macro 4
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Forecast 1: Volatility to Rise
2017 was the second calmest market in history Source: Pension Partners 5
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Forecast 2: Interest Rates to Rise
U.S. 10 year Treasury bond poised to hit 3%; European rates are STUPID! Source: Strategas 6
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Forecast 3: Debt Becomes Problematic
Even the government is borrowing short term. Source: Strategas 7
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Forecast 3: Debt Becomes Problematic
Debt is a global issue across all sectors of economy. Source: IIF, BIS, IMF, Hauer 8
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Forecast 3: Debt Becomes Problematic
Rising rates are an issue in Canada Disposable Income to Consumer Debt Ratio very high Spillover into housing/credit markets a growing probability Source: Bank of International Settlements 9
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Forecast 4: Passive/ETF Peaks
“Crazy” ETFs 3x Leveraged ETF Commodity ETFs Odd Strategies GWO GURU Source: Strategas 10
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Forecast 5: Valuation Does Matter
Source: Cornerstone Macro 11
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Forecast 6: Commodities Cheap to Financial Assets
Source: Dr. Torsten Dennin, Incrementum AG 12
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Asset Class Performance
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 SPX -37 26 15 2 16 32 14 1 12 22 Canadian $ -18 5 -2 3 -7 -9 -16 7 Commodities -32 4 -26 -27 19 Gold 6 24 30 10 -28 -1 -10 8 US 30Y Bond -13 23 17 US T-Bills Spread 56 37 29 25 28 43 27 13 Assets>SPX Best performing sector Worst performing sector There are alternatives to stocks (“TINA”/“FOMO”) 13
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U.S. Sector Performance 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 SPX -37 26 15 2 16 32 14 1 12 22 Cons Discret -33 41 28 6 24 43 10 23 Cons Staples -15 11 7 5 13 Energy -35 20 25 -8 -21 27 -1 Financials -55 17 -17 29 36 -2 Healthcare -23 3 18 -3 Industrials -40 21 19 Info Tech -43 62 39 Materials -46 49 -10 Real Estate -45 8 Telecom -30 9 Utilities -29 -5 Spread 40 53 37 45 31 30 Sectors>SPX 4 Best performing sector Worst performing sector 14
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Conclusion: If our Forecast is Correct?
Need flexible investment mandate Need to be active Need to be rational 15
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For more information, please contact:
Contact Information For more information, please contact: T: (416) | TF: (877) Arrow Capital Management Inc. 36 Toronto Street, Suite 750 Toronto, Ontario M5C 2C5 16
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