1. INDIA: Hunger, Poverty and Vulnerability during Fast Pace of Economic Growth
Abusaleh Shariff
National Council of Applied Economic Research
New Delhi
Taking Action for the World’s Poor and Hungry People
Beijing, China. October 17-19, 2007

2. Macro-National Perspective Essential
Towards Faster and More Inclusive Growth – A New Vision !
Sectoral Growth – sectors of production and distribution – fast pace of growth in Services, followed by Industry. Agriculture is cause of worry! Labour mobility from inefficient to efficient sectors is most difficult !
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3. Macro-National Perspective 11th Plan
Development programmes and projects must link themselves with the macro-national objectives
9 % GDP GR /32 % Savings Rate / 35% Investment
Bharat Nirman – Infrastructure/Information/water
Nat. Rural Employment Guarantee
JN-Urban Renewal Mission
Inclusive Development –ICDS/Nat. Rural Health Mission /Sanitation
A set of Monitorable Targets
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4. Structure of Economy, Labour Force and Relative Productivity (RP) changes
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5. Macro-Regional Growth
Regional development and political economy within the multi-party coalition frame is important.
Equity, inclusiveness and people’s participation
Balance between management of the programmes and adhoc political interferences.
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6. Balanced Regional/State level Development
Factors that prevents growth from reaching specific regions and sectors for example where the poor are concentrated – UP, Bihar, Orissa etc – agriculture, informal self-employed, casual labourers etc.
To ensure that growth strategies translate into poverty reduction, there is a need to further strengthen the understanding as to how inter-sectoral mobility can be enhanced.
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7. Vulnerability and Hunger
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8. ….Vulnerability and Hunger
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9. Pro-Poor & Equitious Growth
National objective as well as a dominant part of the MDGs – global concern as well.
India hosts the largest number of poor compared to any country in the world. 300 million – about a quarter of all Indians.
Programme personnel and Evaluators need to strengthen the understanding of what keeps the poor from participating in the growth process.
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10. Rural – Urban Linkages
How can the urban-rural linkages and inter-sectoral mobility can be enhanced within the growing economy context?
The growth story of India is highly urban biased!
Strengthening urban-rural linkages and strategies to improve rural productivity require more attention. Growth causes poverty reduction more effectively when it occurs in sectors and regions where most of the poor work for living– for example, agriculture sector in India.
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11. Gender Equity
Given the uniqueness of Indian patriarchy which favours absolute control of resources by men, it is important to ensure programme focus on Women. The extension of this approach is to cover children who have a limited voice in programmes.
All development parameters which have individualistic relevance are gender blind. Gender Sensitivity essential in education, health, nutrition, employment generation and social safety net programmes.
Child focus is necessary as they are future Human Capital and Resource.
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12. Social-Group Identity and Equity
India is unique with respect to its spectacular plurality in terms of religious and caste identities. Such identities are so revealing and upfront that these very identities must be used to ensure equity in programme and project access.
Focus on Dalits, Adivasis and Minority Muslims is essential.
Recent fast economic growth should exhibit better policy management so as to champion policies for social inclusion.
There is ample evidence across the world that high growth can be achieved alongside policies for social inclusion.
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13. Poverty and Vulnerability
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14. Head Count Ratio (HCR) and Growth of GDP
Numbers on top of the bar indicate number of poor in million
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Source: Different NSSO Rounds and 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey 365 days reference period

15. Hunger
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16. Malnutrition
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17. Change in Food Basket Shift Away from Cereal Consumption
The food habits even among the poorer households have changed over years
This is more due to improvements in food supply especially after mid 1970 since the introduction of Green Revolution – HYV and chemical fertilizers
Increase in Consumption of Fruit, Vegetables, meat and fish products
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18. Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) by State - 2004-05 ALL INDIA
Based on 30 days reference period
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Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey.

19. Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) by State - 2004-05 RURAL
Based on 30 days reference period
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Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

20. Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) by State - 2004-05 URBAN
Based on 30 days reference period
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Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

21. Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) by Source of Household Income - 2004-05
Based on 30 days reference period
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Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

22. Workforce Participation Rate (major time criterion) for 15-64 years of age, 2004-05
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23. Distribution of Workforce Aged 15-64 according to Nature of Individual’s work
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24. Average Number of Days Worked for 15-64 Years old, All India
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25. Average Daily Wage of Agri. and Non-Agri
Average Daily Wage of Agri. and Non-Agri. Laborers, aged years, All India
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26. Average Daily Wage of Agricultural and Non-agricultural Laborers aged 15-64, Rural-Urban Group
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27. Average No. of Agri. Wage Days among 15-64 Year old by State
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28. Average No. of Non-Agri. Wage Days among 15-64 Year old by State
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29. Average Monthly Salary for Aged 15-64 who Reported Salary as Source of Income, All India
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30. Average Monthly Salary for Aged 15-64 who Reported Salary as Source of Income, Total
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31. Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) - 2004-05 by Household Source of Income and Social Group
Based on 30 days reference period
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Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

32. Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) by State among the Agriculture Labour in India - 2004-05
Based on 30 days reference period
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Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

33. Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) - 2004-05 among Casual Labour in India
Based on 30 days reference period
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Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

34. Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) - 2004-05 Levels of Education and Place of Residence
Based on 30 days reference period
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Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

35. Incidence of Poverty (HCRs) - 2004-05 by Levels of Education and Social Groups
Based on 30 days reference period
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Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

36. MPCE Class distributions by SRCs - 2004-05
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37. MPCE according to Urban Size Class - 1999-00
Based on 365 days reference period
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Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

38. Proportion of Population Covered through the Issuance of Ration Cards by Poverty Status - 2004-05
Based on 30 days reference period
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Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

39. The Poor not Covered by the Issuance of Ration Card by State - 2004-05
Based on 30 days reference period
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Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

40. The Non-poor Covered by the Issuance of Ration Card by State - 2004-05
Based on 30 days reference period
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Source: NSSO 61st Round Consumer Expenditure Survey

41. Thank You
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