1. M. Kuznetsova & CCMC Team
Addressing the need
for coordinated assessment,
development and deployment of
space weather prediction capabilities
M. Kuznetsova & CCMC Team
ESWW 2017
 Working Together 
 Call to Actions 

2. Key Elements of Space Weather Predictive Capabilities System
Research
understanding
assessment (state-of-the-art & opportunities)
Observations
Information, Input to models
ground truth for model validation
Modeling
specifications, forecasting,
research
Dissemination
Operations
 Working Together 

3. Expanding community of models that need to work together
CCMC Assets & Services:
WSA-ENLIL
TIE-GCM
SAMI-3
LFM-TING
GUMICS
WSA-ENLIL+Cone
GMAT
SAM
LFM-MIX
GIC
WSA-ENLIL+EPREM
CTIPe
IDA4D
AWSoM-R+EEGGL+CME
OpenGGCM+CTIM
WSA-ENLIL+SEPMOD
USU-GAIM
AWSoM
EEGGL
SWMF+RCM+deltaB
RCM
REleASE
SWACI-TEC
SWMF+RCM
Fok.CIMI
PFSS.Petrie
PREDICCS
SWMF+RCM+RBE
ABBYNormal
PFSS.Macneice
Fok.RBE
EXO Solar Wind
SWMF+CRCM
PFSS.Luhmann
ANMHD
UPOS RB
NRLMSISE
EMMREM
LFM-MIX-TIEGCM
MAG4
AE-8/AP-8
GITM
UMASEP
LANLstar
CORHEL
WINDMI
AE-9/AP-9
PBMOD
Tsyganenko
IGRF
ASAP
ASSA
AMOS
Heltomo SMEI
VERB
TRIPL-DA
Community of Models, Modelers and Users
A number of modeling Chains and framework.
Many models and modeling chains developed by large teams with broad involvement of distributed community.
Weigel-deltaB
Weimer IE
WSA
Heltomo IPS
PS VP
NLFFF
SRPM
Apex
Weimer-deltaB
BRYNTRN
AACGM
Ovation Prime
MAGIC
SNB3GEO
IRI
JB2008
DBM
AMPS
DTM
GCR
BON
NOVICE
SWMF.SH
IMPACT
NAIRAS
CARI-7
COSGROVE-PF
DIPS
Inner
Magnetosphere
Ionosphere/Thermosphere
Corona
Heliosphere
Magnetosphere

4. Key challenges identified in
the ILWS-COSPAR
Space Weather Roadmap
[Schrijver et al., 2015]
Transformation to effectively functioning, information-sharing, global space weather community.
Fast responses to new scientific advances and societal requirements in the rapidly growing field of space weather.
brings together international scientific and operational communities and impacted societal groups.
 Call to Actions 

5. Transition, Balances, Coordination
Challenges in
Transition, Balances, Coordination
Research – Operations
Fundamental Research - Applied Research
Heliophysics – Meteorology
Partnership – Dependency
Sharing - Competition
Bottom-up – Top-down
Emerging Community Initiatives – Funding Opportunities

6. International Partnership Concept Core Core Independent Joint
Mutually beneficial joint activities to supplement core independent capabilities
Core
Independent
Capabilities
Core
Independent Capabilities
Joint
Initiatives
Dynamic International Working Teams
Joint network of web-based services & interactive archives
Add-on capabilities enabled by joint initiatives
Add-on capabilities enabled by joint initiatives
WIN
WIN

7. Interlinked Services CCMC / iSWA – SPENVIS CCMC Real-Time System iSWA
Automated Request
CCMC
Real-Time System
Results
Automated Request
Results
Results
Results
iSWA
SSA
SWE
Portal

8. Searchable Simulation Archive Visualization & Downloads
Opportunity for Interlinked Services
CCMC/RoR – Helio ESC/VSWMC
1000s CPUs
Peta-Bytes of Storage
Searchable Simulation Archive
(>20,000 runs)
> 100 Models
Online
Visualization & Downloads
ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov
Requests
CCMC Runs-on-Request
Results
Requests
Results
Execution
Results
ESA Heliosphere ESC
Virtual SW Modeling Center

9. for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment, Improvement, Deployment
Need for a Hub
for Space Weather Capabilities
Assessment, Improvement, Deployment
Research
Operations 2
O2R
R2O
vs a bridge for R2O transition

10. Key Elements of Space Weather Capabilities
A Hub Interconnecting
Key Elements of Space Weather Capabilities
Targeting Improvements of Space Weather Services
Addressing a need to bring together scientists, application developers, mission specialists, infrastructure engineers, and end-users of space weather services.
SERVICES
With
H. Opgenoorth, I. Mann

11. National / Regional Agencies National / Regional Agencies
Roadmaps
Reports
Policies
Action Plans
International SW Stakeholders
Regional / National Agencies
National / Regional Agencies
National / Regional Agencies
Regional / International Coordination Groups
National / Regional Agencies
TOP-DOWN
TOP-DOWN
encouragement opportunities
support
coordination
facilitation
recommendations
guidelines
BOTTOM-UP
BOTTOM-UP
Feedback,
updates & input for strategic planning,
global hub for implementation of Action Plans,
new leads & ideas for improvements,
agile implementation, assessment and dissemination
International SW Action Teams

12. ionosphere-atmosphere (geospace) system
Sun-to-Impact I-SWAT
Space weather
origins at the Sun
Propagation of transient through evolving ambient
Coupled
magnetosphere
Primary user groups & Impacts
Electric power systems, GICs
Positioning / Navigation /
Communication
(Aero)space assets
- Satellite / debries drag
- Satellite / aviation funcitions,
- Astronauts health
Solar output
Input to heliosphere and geospace
S1. Long-term solar variability. Prediction of solar cycles.
S2. Solar magnetic field & heating. Ambient magnetized solar wind and spectral irradiance.
S3. Solar eruptions: CMEs, flares,
enhanced electromagnetic emissions and high energy particle fluxes.
heliosphere
Input to geospace
H1. Time of CME arrival.
Plasma parameters and magnetic field structure within CME approaching geospace.
H2. SEP and GCR in heliosphere.
ionosphere-atmosphere (geospace) system
response to solar drivers
G1. Geomagnetic environment.
G2. Ionosphere / atmosphere variability.
G3. Near-Earth radiation & plasma environment.

13. Examples of I-SWAT Tasks
REVIEW
Review of Roadmap recommendations.
Inventory of available resources and on-going efforts.
EVALUATION
Evaluation of data and model output quality, prediction accuracy and reliability, and application usability. Tracking progress against established metrics.
Identification of opportunities for improvements, including feasibility analysis.
Prototyping for future operational capabilities (e.g., community ensemble forecasting, collaborative distributed modeling, coordinated observations).
IMPROVEMENT
Agile improvement of space environment specification and forecasting capabilities based on latest advances in understanding, observations and modeling.
Analyses of climatology and past and future extremes.
Refinement of physics-based indices and activity scales.
Improvement of archives for anomaly analysis. Improvement of data utilization.
COORDINATED FEEDBACK, UPDATES, INPUTS
E.g., on policies, mission planning, periodic COSPAR ILWS Roadmap updates.

14. Townhall Meeting Thursday November 30, 13:00-14:00, Room: Stijnen
ESF/ESSC European SWx Asessment and Consolidation Working Group,
UN COPOUS Framework for international space weather services,
COSPAR I-SWAT (International Space Weather Action Teams)
Take advantage of opportunities for in-person meetings at international conferences and workshops.
Non-bureaucratic, free as possible from administrative and hierarchical constraints.
Committed to active participation in community-wide projects.
advantage of opportunities for in-person meetings at international conferences and workshops.

15. I-SWAT Goals
Provide a global hub for coordinated space weather community efforts toward the realization of the COSPAR-ILWS Roadmap goals.
Create an agile collaborative working environment that encourage active participation, emergence of new leads and innovative ideas.
Enable timely incorporation of new data and latest scientific findings with potential to improve space weather services, into models, tools and forecasting techniques.
Serve as a channel for inputs, updates and feedback from communities to COSPAR PSW leads, partnering organizations, and policy making agencies.
Facilitate a bottom-up community engagement in regular Roadmap updates based on latest scientific advances and evolving user needs.
INITIATIVES  NOVELTY  EFFICIENCY  MULTI-DISCIPLINARY  AGILITY  COLLABORATIVE ENVIRONMENT