1. World Population Phases, Transitions, and Contemporary Crisis
White, Makov, Korotayev © 2005

2. What is power-law growth?
Hypothetical example dN/dt = a0Nr=2

3. 1 – 1832 CE, with 95% confidence intervals (Komori 1992)
Premodern example dN/dt = a0Nr=2
Figure 2. Power-Law Growth Pattern for Hawaiian Population Estimates,
1 – 1832 CE, with 95% confidence intervals (Komori 1992)

4. Other possibilities for dN/dt = a0Nr=?

5. World population over 1M years
dN/dt = a0Nr=2
World population over 1M years

6. World population over 1M years

7. China dN/dt = a0Nr=2

8. Time to criticality

9. Deviation from trend line (absolute)

10. Deviation from trend line (relative)

11. Deviation from political trend line

12. Fit of political - population phases

13. Population phases and transitions

14. Power law from 1,000,000 yrs ago

15. Discuss implications Economic Political Age Distribution World-System
Social Organization
Cognition