1. Michael I. Henderson ISO New England Inc.
NERC’s Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) Workshop: Natural Gas Dependency in New England
Michael I. Henderson
ISO New England Inc.

2. New England’s Electric Power Grid
6.5 million customer meters
Population: 14 million
350+ generators
8,000+ miles of high voltage transmission lines
12 interconnections to three neighboring systems:
New York, New Brunswick, Quebec
31,000 megawatts (MW) of installed generating capacity
300+ market participants
Summer peaking system
Summer: 28,130 MW (8/06)
Winter: 22,818 MW (1/04)
ISO and Local Control Centers
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

3. New England’s Capacity – Summer 2007
System Planning information as of February 2007 (winter ratings):
Gas-only units: 8,600 MW
Dual-fuel units: (two categories)
Natural gas as primary fuel/oil as secondary fuel: 4,600 MW
Oil as primary fuel/natural gas as secondary fuel: 3,700 MW
Gas-only to dual-fuel generation conversions already completed
Pre-Winter 2005/06 ~ 1,550 MW
Pre-Winter 2006/07 ~ MW
Generation capacity mix by primary fuel type, 2007, summer ratings, MW and percentage.
Note: “Non-Hydro Renewables” include biomass, refuse, landfill gas, and wind.
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

4. New England’s Energy Production - 2006
System Planning information as of February 2007 (winter ratings):
Gas-only units: 8,600 MW
Dual-fuel units: (two categories)
Natural gas as primary fuel/oil as secondary fuel: 4,600 MW
Oil as primary fuel/natural gas as secondary fuel: 3,700 MW
Gas-only to dual-fuel generation conversions already completed
Pre-Winter 2005/06 ~ 1,550 MW
Pre-Winter 2006/07 ~ MW
New England electric energy production by fuel type, 2006, in 1,000 MWh.
Note: “Non-Hydro Renewables” include biomass, refuse, landfill gas, and wind.
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

5. New England’s Gas-Fired Fleet
Potential Concerns:
“Just-in-time” delivery of fuel source
Unplanned outage or closure of the regional LNG facility
LNG shipping disruption or embargo
Loss of natural gas pipeline or compressor stations
Wholesale electricity’s exposure to natural gas price volatility
Actual Experience:
Temporary shutdown of regional LNG facility – Post 9/11
Greater Northeast Cold Snap – January 14-16, 2004
Hurricanes Katrina & Rita - Fall of 2005
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

6. Regional Response
Developed robust rules and operating procedures to manage the electric system through short or long-term fuel supply or delivery constraints:
Appendix H of Market Rule #1: “Operations During Cold Weather Conditions.”
Operating Procedure No. 21: “Action During an Energy Emergency.”
Added provisions in new markets to promote resource availability at time of need:
Forward Capacity Market (FCM)
Locational Forward Reserve Market (LFRM)
Created the Electric/Gas Operations Committee (EGOC)
Increased communications and coordination with the regional natural gas sector via the Northeast Gas Association (NGA)
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

7. Regional Response – cont’d
Dual fuel conversions of single-fuel, gas-only power stations
Newly proposed LNG terminals and expansion of regional natural gas grid
Confirm existing practices are compliant with FERC Order 698: (electric & gas sector communications)
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

8. Inter-Regional Response
3 ISO/RTO MOU on Natural Gas:
Transfer of knowledge between ISO-NE, NYISO & PJM
Coordinated operations & planning
Continuous pre & post-seasonal discussions
Sharing of information, studies & methodologies
Refinement of communications protocols and contact lists
Direct communications between Control Room and Gas Control
Table-Top exercises
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

9. Long-Term Outlook ISO-NE Regional System Plan:
Annual 10-year plan
Loads, generation, transmission & demand-side
Fuel diversity, availability, deliverability
ISO-NE’s Scenario Analysis:
New England will continue to depend on natural gas
Interconnection queue predominately gas-fired
Relatively low air emissions
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

10. Long-Term Outlook – cont’d
NERC LTRA
Resource adequacy assessment
Fuel supply & delivery assessment
NPCC Triennial Review of Resource Adequacy
5-year resource adequacy review (LOLE)
Comprehensive review every three years
Interim review every year
Emerging Issue:
LNG Interchangeability
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

11. Operable Capacity Analysis
New England’s total installed capacity: 33,425 MW (winter)
16,733 MW (50%) are capable of burning natural gas
(as either a startup, primary, secondary or stabilization fuel)
8,587 MW (26%) are single-fuel, gas-only stations
8,146 MW (24%) are fully functional, dual-fuel stations (gas/oil)
2007 Regional System Plan – Assessed the amount of gas-only resources required under winter peak conditions:
50/50 load:
2007/08 ~ 450 MW
2011/12 ~ 1,650 MW
90/10 load:
2007/08 ~ 1,400 MW
2011/12 ~ 2,700 MW
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

12. Market Rules and Operating Procedures
Appendix H of Market Rule #1: “Operations During Cold Weather Conditions”
7-Day Forecast Projects Cold Weather Conditions
Cold Weather Watch, Warning & Event
Cold Weather Event triggers rollback of wholesale electric market timelines to align with natural gas nomination deadlines
Operating Procedure No. 21: “Action During an Energy Emergency”
Triggered by fuel supply shortage or deliverability constraint
Requests fuel switching to non-constrained fuels
Allows collection of fuel inventory data from generation fleet
Dispatch system to manage and preserve fuel inventories
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

13. New Natural Gas Infrastructure
Source: Northeast Gas Association (NGA)
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

14. New Natural Gas Infrastructure
Source: Northeast Gas Association (NGA)
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

15. Conclusions
New England will continue to rely heavily on natural gas-fired generation (primary finding from ISO-NE’s Scenario Analysis)
Close coordination between electric and gas industries is required
Markets promote unit availability at time of need
Dual fuel & firm fuel purchases
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and demand-side resources will assist in diversifying the region’s fuel supply
Newly proposed LNG terminals and expansion of the regional natural gas grid will improve the amount of natural gas supply
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

16. Appendix 2007 Regional System Plan: ISO-NE’s Scenario Analysis:
ISO-NE’s Scenario Analysis:
NERC LTRA
NPCC Triennial Review of Resource Adequacy:
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

17. Appendix – cont’d
Appendix H of Market Rule #1: Cold Weather Operations
Operating Procedure No. 21: Action During an Energy Emergency
Northeast Gas Association:
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England

18. Director – Regional Planning and Coordination
QUESTIONS
Michael I. Henderson
Director – Regional Planning and Coordination
ISO New England Inc.
(413) 535 – 4166
Natural Gas Dependency
In New England