1. Gregor Gregorič Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Meteorological Office gregor.gregoric@gov.si National seminar on Drought Management, Zagreb, 16 April 2012 Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe

2. Contents DMCSEE – from initiative to TCP project Content of the DMCSEE project Drought monitoring Drought risk assessment Trainings Summary - lessons learned

3. From initiative to operability 1998need for Balkan subregional center 2004 Center initiative – top-down approach (International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) adopted a declaration which expressed the need to establish this centre to alleviate problems caused by drought in the area Balkan Drought Workshop in Poiana/Brasov (RO), co-sponsored by the UNCCD ) 2006 triangle approach: UNCCD focal points, permanent representatives with the WMO + observers from UNCCD and WMO) (Workshop for national experts and representatives of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services where they agreed on DMCSEE within context of UNCCD) 2006 decision on DMCSEE host institution (procedure led by WMO). 2007– 2009 advocacy, management, steering committee, active institutions in consortium. since 2008 first drought monitoring products, fund raising, cooperation with JRC (Eurogeoss project and EDO portal) April 2009 – May 2012 Transnational cooperation programme project

4. DMCSEE today The DMCSEE TCP project is envisaged as bridge project phase aiming at development of functions of the centre. Transnational Cooperation Programme for SE Europe www.southeast-europe.net Main aim of transnational cooperation programme is to foster a balanced territorial development and territorial integration within the cooperation area -> common infrastructure, not research!

5. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project 15 partners from 9 countries Total project budget 2.2 M Not all countries participate! (not all countries are eligible) consortium

6. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activities Regional drought monitoring What is drought monitoring? - No single drought definition - Artifitial division needed for operational reasons - Drought indices should vary, depending on current situation

7. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activities Monitoring of meteorological drought Implementation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) -Standardized statistical departure of precipitation amount in predifined time range -> more on SPI – next presentations

8. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activities Monitoring of meteorological drought Implementation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Using GPCC data, some preliminary maps of the SPI, Percentiles and Precipitation for the region are prepared. For period 1951-2000 maps are available.GPCC Standard tool for monitoring and early warning of meteorological drought Standardized precipitation index (SPI), computed from GPCC data

9. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activities Monitoring of meteorological drought Implementation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) GIS application and Web Mapping Service Available on www.dmcsee.org/GISapp Enables DMCSEE partners to upload their products, composits are calculated automatically Currently available climatological maps (precip. and temp.) and SPI index

10. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activities Monitoring of meteorological drought Implementation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) International collaboration DMCSEE mapping service included in EuroGEOSS drought catalogue and in European Drought Observatory

11. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activities Monitoring of agricultural drought Most important parameter for monitoring agricultural drought is soil moisture. Natural tools for monitoring soil moisture: - Local measurements - Irrigation sheduling models WinISAREG: water balance model for simulating crop irrigation schedules. Developed in Technical University of Lisbon (prof. L.-S. Pereira).

12. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activities Monitoring of agricultural drought WinIsareg: soils divided into several layers; large selection of irrigation methods; results: variety of data - required data CROP DATA dates of phenological stages SOIL DATA data for different soil layers CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA humidity, wind, sunshine…

13. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activities Monitoring of agricultural drought WinIsareg outputs: Net irrigation requirement (NIR): Amount of water needed that plants dont experience water strees (prescribed moisture level). - Daily irrigation values - Annual sums

14. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activities Monitoring of agricultural drought WinIsareg outputs: Net irrigation requirement (NIR): Amount of water needed that plants dont experience water stres (prescribed moisture level). - Daily irrigation values - Annual sums

15. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activities Agricultural drought – risk assessment WinIsareg outputs: Shortage of water causes yield decrease. Plants in stress transpirate less than optimally irrigated plants: RYD = Ky x AET/PET RYD – relative yield decrease AET – actual evapotranspiration PET – potential evapotranspiration Ky – linear coeficcient in range 1.2 – 1.8

16. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activities Agricultural drought – risk assessment

17. DMCSEE – TCP-SEE project activities Sensitivity and vulnerability to drought

19. Summary - Drought monitoring: basic index implementation not issue; some further development needed (remote sensing, …) – not priority - Risk assessment – certain techniques implemented (geo-morphological sensitivity to drought, risk assessment in agriculture). - IMPORTANT: Identification of stakeholders within countries and description of: their functions in drought prepardness or mitigation their specific interests in drought management their comments and requirements in regards of available products

20. Summary (cont.) POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS (examples) - Implementation of drought monitoring in legal framework - Incorporate planning, implementation of plans, mitigation measures and risk management among the elements of effective national drought policy - Development of insurance and financial strategies in order to move away from relying on emergency relief in response to widespread drought. - …? (Discussion)

21. Summary (cont.) 10-step implementation procedure 1. Appoint a Drought Task Force. 2. Define the Purpose and Objective of the Drought Plan. 3. Seek stakeholders participation and Resolve Conflict. 4. Inventory Resources and Identify Groups at Risk. 5. Develop Organizational Structure and prepare Drought Plan. 6. Integrate Science and Policy, close Institutional Gaps. 7. Publicize the proposed Plan, Solicit Reaction. 8. Implement the Plan. 9. Develop Education Programmes. 10. Post Drought Evaluation.