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Future Concepts Turning Water into Wine

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Presentation on theme: "Future Concepts Turning Water into Wine"— Presentation transcript:

1 Future Concepts Turning Water into Wine
Keith Goodman Dstl Programmes Area Joint Studies and Experimentation

2 The Customer The Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre will:
Produce concepts and doctrine – underpinned by thorough research – to help inform decisions in Defence strategy, capability development and operations, both now and into the future. Concepts provide the basis by which Defence can shape coherent capability development and enhance operational effectiveness in future timeframes. However, there is often a gap between conceptual ideas and the decision-making process that supports the assessment and procurement of capabilities. This paper will explain how the MoD’s Development, Concept and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) have developed a process that utilises OR techniques to help bridge this gap. The process subjects conceptual ideas to rigorous analysis and evaluation in order to identify their underpinning evidence, feasibility, associated risks and the identification of interactions and interdependencies between different concepts. In addition, the paper will highlight some of the key deductions for future operations that have resulted from the analysis of the MoD’s Joint Interim Concepts. 12 November 2018

3 The Concepts A series of papers that provide a conceptual view on how the armed forces should operate out to 2030 12 November 2018

4 Articulation and ordering of ideas
Concept to Capability Shaping Innovation Research Analysis Experimentation Exploitation Articulation and ordering of ideas Insights and impacts Developing ideas Experimentation Ideas & Context Concept Development Concepts Force Structure & Capability Implications Stage 1 5 2 3 Stage 4 Conceptual Input Seminars / Workshops Academia ? Industry MoD Research Studies Literature search Equipment Plan Defence Implications Technology Games Capability Planning 12 November 2018

5 Concept Test Support concept generation and exploitation:
Providing evidence of credibility and feasibility. Refining key themes of conceptual ideas. Clarifying conceptual interactions and interdependencies. Supporting subsequent conceptual innovation. Providing key insights for exploitation via capability development programmes. Analysis & Experimentation Learning: Refinement & Validation Concept Generation Development Capability 12 November 2018

6 Our aim To produce a conceptual tool/technique that:
Can include every Concept Includes linkages between elements Offers ease of access to evidence Is easy to use 12 November 2018

7 How we do it Written concepts Themes identified Themes clustered
Key statements identified then separated and classified into contextual, descriptive or specified or implied direction Written concepts Statements tend towards a number of reoccurring themes Themes identified Themes clustered Relationships exist between themes – these can be mapped using social network analysis on strength, orientation etc Filters applied for P&P, S&T, Legal etc Variables assigned Values or bounds now need to be applied to these inter-related directions 12 November 2018 Direction and bounds combined on a given thematic basis Model generated

8 Themes identified Key Themes 12 November 2018

9 Concepts Analytical Model
Uses social network analysis A single network cluster combines all concepts Incorporates database: Associates, context, evidence base, links to DLoDs, programmed work etc for every element Concept, concept theme or bespoke topic can be extracted, at varying levels of resolution allowing the Concepts to feed into (for example) MoD planning, wider MoD programmes 12 November 2018

10 By scoring the strength of relationships …
Theme Themes 1 2 3 12 November 2018

11 Lots of relationships …
12 November 2018

12 Individual themes … 12 November 2018

13 Can be linked 12 November 2018

14 Single Inform Community.
Concept Test Results Information owners Operational Effectiveness Timely exploitation of i2 Networked CoI/P Sufficiently Trained Personnel Databases Evolving Virtual Knowledge Databases Single Inform Infrastructure Dynamic Clear Governance Enterprise Wide Collaborative Working Tool Forming Single Inform Community. Improved SA Reduced Operator Work load Human Linkages Common strategic objectives and policy goals. Networked Linkages Civil and military co-ordination Mature Network Coordinated Collection Management Joint Intelligence Requirement Management Successful Team Working Distributed Collaborative Working TTPs good communications Human skills and culture Information Access Security Management Information Sharing Virtual Co-location 12 November 2018

15 The network will be available at work but there will be no home access
Variables All members of staff will have access to all parts of the network even at home The network will be available at work but there will be no home access All members of staff will have access to the network at work but home access will be limited Networked 12 November 2018

16 Single Inform Community.
Concept Test Results Information owners Operational Effectiveness Timely exploitation of i2 Networked CoI/P Sufficiently Trained Personnel No Go Databases Evolving Virtual Knowledge Databases Single Inform Infrastructure Dynamic Clear Governance Enterprise Wide Collaborative Working Tool Forming Single Inform Community. Improved SA Reduced Operator Work load Human Linkages Go Common strategic objectives and policy goals. Networked Linkages Civil and military co-ordination Mature Network Coordinated Collection Management Joint Intelligence Requirement Management Go Successful Team Working Distributed Collaborative Working TTPs good communications Human skills and culture Slow Go Information Access Security Management Information Sharing Virtual Co-location 12 November 2018

17 Summary We have produced a method of developing concepts
We have begun to use the method to validate concepts We have generated a model that allows promotion of the concepts to a wider audience 12 November 2018

18 Acknowledgments DCDC Dr Kay Uppington Dr Gerrard Finbow I
12 November 2018

19 End Questions?

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