1. ClearPath: Deep Dive Into Forecasting and Planning
February 15th 2017
Mike Steinhoff & Hoi-Fei Mok

2. About SEEC
The Statewide Energy Efficiency Collaborative (SEEC) is an alliance between the Local Government Commission, ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability, the Institute for Local Government and California’s four investor-owned utilities. This program is funded by California utility customers and administered by Pacific Gas and Electric Company®, San Diego Gas & Electric Company®, Southern California Edison® and Southern California Gas Company under the auspices of the California Public Utilities Commission.

3. Forecast Module

4. Evolution of Forecasting
Vocab Review:
Forecast = Business-as-usual (BAU) = Baseline Projection
In the past:
“Everything scales w/ population”
Tools weren’t sophisticated enough to do much else
No other data to work with (still a limitation)

5. ClearPath Design Questions
What kinds of dynamics would we like to be able to represent?
Independent changes in each activity
Ex: Different Residential and Commercial Growth
Fuel Substitution/Switching within activities
Ex: Vehicle Electrification
Changes in the emissions intensity of activities
Ex: RPS to improve grid carbon intensity

6. ClearPath Design Solutions
Every inventory calculator has a “forecastable output” of the primary activity data.
Granularity at the level of Calculators
Fuel Types & Options within Calculators
New Forecasts Summarize all records along these divisions for start point values

7. Summarized Inventory Outputs
Quantity = Primary Activity Data
CO2e = All emissions associated with that output
Static Forecasts – Ratio of Activity : Emissions is Constant
Dynamic Forecasts – Variable Carbon Intensity
Both use Compound Annual Growth Rates to represent change

8. Growth Rate Factor Sets
Rates applied to the activities in that year to create the following year value.
Ex. Rate applied in 2019 creates 2020 total emissions.
2020 = (2019 * .01)

9. Compound Growth Rates Pros: Cons:
Similar to format of projections made in data you will use (population, economic growth, etc)
Create smooth looking charts
Cons:
Compounding can get out of hand
What’s the right rate?

10. Forecast Helpers
Special Calculators to determine growth rates between two known points.
Ex: Population is X in 2015 and Y by 2030

11. Some Example Forecasts

12. Forecasting in Practice
What is BAU from the local perspective? Activity * Emissions Factor/Intensity = Emissions
Federal and State Policy set the conditions in which local actions take place and are more likely to be changing the carbon intensity of an activity.

13. Planning

14. Planning Calculators
Calculators have one or more outputs that connect to forecast series of Primary Activity Data
Ex. Energy Equivalent MMBtu – Natural Gas
Outputs from calculator record are subtracted from forecast total each year there is an additional reduction (as specified in Plan)

15. Cumulative Actions
Many Actions on the Community Side are recurring annual actions
Efficiency Programs, PV deployments, etc.
Many Government Operations are one-time actions
Specific retrofit, install of lighting controls
Cumulative Actions will incrementally subtract the calculator outputs for every year it is applied
Non Cumulative Actions have a one-time impact

16. Effective Useful Life
Equipment, building tune ups, small changes will wear out after a set number of years
Concept common with specific building measures
Opportunity to think about next generation versions of the action. (Super efficient PV)

17. EUL + Cumulative Pattern

18. Cumulative and EUL Summary
Cumulative – works on Community Scale actions that are “program type” as opposed to discrete actions
EUL for “structural changes” like community planning actions is infinite (never wears out)

19. Interactive Effects
ClearPath handles interactive effects between changes in carbon intensity and activity levels
Carbon Intensity Changes are evaluated first, then the impact of activity levels.
Avoids double counting reductions
Other types of interactions, ClearPath does not account for automatically & requires careful application by users.

20. Overlapping Types of Actions
Source Energy
Technology Change
Site Energy
Operational
Change
End Use Change
National and State Energy Policy
Local Codes
Building Systems
Controls and Automation
Behavior Change

21. Order of Evaluation - Buildings

22. Order of Evaluation - Transport

23. Fuel Switching
Reallocate activity levels from one fuel type (and carbon intensity) to another.
Ex: EV removes VMT from gasoline and adds it back under electricity
What’s the carbon intensity of an EV mile?
Is that in your forecast?

24. Fuel Switching Cont.
Edit Forecast and create a starting point for new fuel type to add to.
1 mile at (X MTCO2e / Mile)
Use a “no change” / all zeros factor set
Creates a starting point for new miles to be added

25. Community Planning
Actions related to density and transportation infrastructure don’t reach full impact immediately
Calculators estimate the full impact and an annual increment that gets applied to “ramp-in” based on user input of years to maturity
Implementation timeframe must match years specified in the calculator

26. Working with EUL
It is challenging to acknowledge the short life of many actions
Prompt to design plans around the next, better version of the action.
Use the “Save a Copy” button for the future version of the action
Only update the parts that need to change
% savings, square feet affected, etc