1. DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTS FOR HUDSON VALLEY COUNTIES
Magnetizing Downtowns and Historic Villages
April 4th, 2009
Gerry Bogacz
Planning Director
New York Metropolitan Transportation Council
Presentation discusses about the forecast results of population and employment in Dutchess, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Sullivan and Ulster.
However, NYMTC’s forecasts cover 31 counties. The 31 counties are divided into 5 subregion. NY city, LI, Mid-Hudson, NJ, and CT. This presentation only presents the results of 6 counties in Mid-Hudson from our latest 2035 forecasts.
NYMTC prepares forecasts for Population, Labor Force, Employment and Household and keep update the forecasts every 2-3 years. The latest forecast is from

3. Metropolitan Planning: An Overview
Federal Authorizing Legislation
Funding for Transportation Improvements
New York Metropolitan Transportation Council
Metropolitan Planning Organization
Federal Investments in Transportation Improvements
Roadway Improvements
Transit Service
Transit Services
Transportation Management

4. How the Process Operates
Regional Transportation Plan
Regional Transportation Plan
Establishes Long-Range Concepts
Establishes Long-Range Concepts
Unified Planning Work Program
Transportation Improvement Program
Unified Planning Work Program
Transportation Improvement Program
Defines the Concepts
Defines the Funding
Defines the Concepts
Defines the Funding
Implementation

5. Background on NYMTC’s Forecasts
Four individual forecasting models are used:
Employment model
Population model
Labor force model
Household formation model
The employment model (which impacts the other models) is based on national forecasts
NYMTC SED is forecasted by four individual models.
Employment is forecasted independently of population and labor force.
Labor force supply is assumed to respond to employment demand.
Net migration in the population model is assumed to be affected by sub regional labor force requirement.

6. Comparisons of the National Forecasts….
National Variables
Real GDP
3.3%
2.7%
2.8%
CPI
2.3%
2.0%
2.1%
Nonfarm Emp.
1.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.9%
Pers'l Income
6.6%
5.4%
5.3%
5.0%
Mortgage Rate
7.3%
6.9%
T-Bill 3 Month
4.9%
4.7%
Unemp. Rate
4.4%
4.8%
As mentioned before, NYMTC’s employment forecast is based on National forecasts provided by Global Insight.
Global Insight is recognized as one of the most consistently accurate forecasting company in the world. It cover over 200 countries and more than 170 industries.
The company has 325+ professional analysts, researchers, and economists and offer consulting advice to clients in business, financial, and government organizations around the world.
NYMTC is aware of the current economic downturn and the validation of the latest forecast for 2035.
A special session was held by forecast working group to discuss the topic, and National drivers provided by Global Insight are compared.

7. Background on NYMTC’s Forecasts (continued)
The population model is based on:
Historical/forecasted births and deaths from the census
Net-migration (in-migration minus out- migration)
The household model is based on age-specific household formation rates projected from the 2000 Census

8. Monitoring the Downturn
NYMTC is closely monitoring the development of the economic downturn.
We keep collecting the latest data and analyze the trend.

9. Long Term National Forecasts
National forecasts of February 2007 by Global Insight
The forecasts includes a recession for the years 2008/2009 with recovery beginning in 2010.
National forecasts used in NYMTC 2035 forecast are from GI’s 2007 Feb forecast
Comparisons are made between the GI’s national forecast dated 2007 Feb and 2008 Dec, the latest we can get
The new forecast includes a recession for the years 2008/2009 with recovery beginning in 2010.
The attached charts compare that forecast (old) with the Global Insight U.S. Long Term Forecast of December 2008 (new).

10. Employment growth for 2007 to 2035 is 900,000 less than in the earlier forecast

11. Employment Change Among NY Metropolitan Counties (June 2007-June 2008)
June 2008 Employment
Growth in Employment
Percent Growth in Employment
(thousands)
June (in thousands)
June
United States
136,631.8
-397
-0.3
New York -- Statewide
8,758.2
-55.5
-0.6
New York County, New York
2,392.5
20.8
Kings County, New York
1.59
Suffolk County, New York
642.6
7.5
Queens County, New York
1.35
Nassau County, New York
615.4
6.8
Bronx County, New York
1.11
508.3
2.5
0.88
482.5
Orange County, New York
0.8
Sullivan County, New York
0.70
Westchester County, New York
430.8
0.4
0.60
227.4
0.2
Richmond County, New York
0.12
134.0
0.1
0.07
Rockland County, New York
118.9
0.0
0.03
Dutchess County, New York
117.8
Putnam County, New York
-0.05
94.5
-0.4
-0.09
Ulster County, New York Total
61.9
-1.4
-0.41
Sullivan County, New York Total
27.1
-1.7
-1.20
27.0
-2.5
Ulster County, New York
-2.60
The table shows the employment change of NYMTC counties from June 2007 to June 2008.
The data are from Bureau of labor Statistics. It is the latest data we are able to get at county level
The six counties are highlighted.
Statewide, NY is doing worse than the country. NY city outperformed the statewide and national averages. Mid-Hudson Valley is hit harder than NY city.
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Accessed in March 2009

12. Percent Growth in Wages
Weekly Wages Change Among NY Metropolitan Counties (June 2007-June 2008)
Average Weekly Wages
Growth in Wages
Percent Growth in Wages
Second Quarter 2008
June
United States
$841
$21
2.6
New York -- Statewide
$1,017
$23
2.3
New York County, New York
1,569
Dutchess County, New York 39
Sullivan County, New York
6.1
Westchester County, New York
1,140
4.6
Nassau County, New York
962
Rockland County, New York 37
Putnam County, New York
4.3
932 36
4.1
Suffolk County, New York
922 33
3.6
880 32
Richmond County, New York
876 26
Orange County, New York
3.4
Queens County, New York
840 25
Bronx County, New York
820 23
Kings County, New York
2.4
755 21
2.1
752 17
728
Ulster County, New York 14
2.0
706 7
0.7
682
-39
-4.4
The average weekly wages grow faster in mid-hudson counties than other NY city counties.
Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Data Accessed in March 2009

13. NYMTC 2035 Forecasts

14. 2035 Population Trends Dutchess, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Sullivan and Ulster Counties
Population growth in the six Hudson Valley counties (0.99% yearly) exceeds 31-county average growth rate (0.65%)
Natural increase leads, but strong employment outlook draws net in-migration
Births exceed deaths by 200,000; Net in-migration is nearly as large at 160,000
The six counties will see growth among the number of seniors
Highlights of the population forecasts.
The six counties are growing faster than the rest of the region in terms of population.
Births exceed deaths by 200,000; Net in-migration is nearly as large at 160,000. Growth is expected for all age groups.

15. Population Projection 2005-2035
2015 %
2025 %
2035 % %
Dutchess
294,509
301,383 2%
350,557
16%
380,026 8%
29%
Orange
372,750
384,204 3%
439,770
14%
480,011 9%
Putnam
100,528
102,838
116,064
13%
125,019
24%
Rockland
294,636
299,097
326,637
340,036 4%
15%
Sullivan-Ulster
258,588
268,894
339,416
26%
450,143
33%
74%
The table shows population forecasts at county level over 30 year period. The population growth starts accelerating from The following slides will look into the age structure.

16. Population Change for Age Group up to 19: 2005-2035 by County
2015 %
2025 %
2035 % %
Dutchess
77904
78268
0.5%
89418
14%
93189 4%
20%
Orange
111686
111635 0%
120176 8%
131425 9%
18%
Putnam
26768
25375
-5%
26908 6%
29896
11%
12%
Rockland
88165
85240
-3%
87382 3%
98023
Sullivan-Ulster
151726
150347
-1%
165017
10%
188036
24%
This table shows the percent change by age group 0-19.
Young people are growing at a healthy rate.

17. Population Change for Age Group 20-64: 2005-2035 by County
2015 %
2025 %
2035 % %
Dutchess
180659
193505 7%
203025 5%
214842 6%
19%
Orange
224335
241838 8%
253423
267267
Putnam
63514
65112 3%
67118
67725 1%
Rockland
169411
174394
180431
178386
-1%
Sullivan-Ulster
329548
352027
385166 9%
463228
20%
41%
Population change for age group
This is the age group mainly in the labor force and it grows gradually.

18. Population Change for Age Group 65+: 2005-2035 by County
2015 %
2025 %
2035 % %
Dutchess
35946
43672
21%
58114
33%
71995
24%
100%
Orange
36728
47583
30%
66172
39%
81319
23%
121%
Putnam
10246
15016
47%
22038
27398
167%
Rockland
37060
48546
31%
58824
63627 8%
72%
Sullivan-Ulster
71950
91141
27%
115870
138915
20%
93%
Retiree people will grow almost doubled in most of the counties.
Aging of the population.
Also possibly because of attraction of seniors.

19. Change in Distribution of Population by Race, Dutchess County: 2005-2035 (in thousands)
Following slides show the change of population by race.
In Dutchess county, white will increase slightly. Hispanic and Asian population grow fastest.

20. Change in Distribution of Population by Race, Orange County: 2005-2035 (in thousands)
White population decrease slightly, while Asian and Hispanic population grow fast.

21. Change in Distribution of Population by Race, Putnam County: 2005-2035 (in thousands)
Slight increase in White, Black, and Asian. Biggest increase in Hispanics.

22. Change in Distribution of Population by Race, Rockland County: 2005-2035 (in thousands)
White population decreased by 19%. Small increase in black population. More than 100% growth in Asian and Hispanic population.

23. Change in Distribution of Population by Race, Sullivan & Ulster County: 2005-2035 (in thousands)
Significant growth is expected in all race/ethnic groups.

24. Household Forecast Dutchess, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Sullivan and Ulster
Headship rates by age/sex/race-ethnicity for 2005 applied to demographic structure of future population
Yields 191,200 new households in the six-county region, growing at 1.2% yearly
Dutchess and Orange captures nearly 40% of the six-county growth, Sullivan and Ulster 47%; Rockland 6%, and Putnam nearly 5%
Headship rates is the ratio of household header and population.

25. Household Forecasts Increments (in thousands)
AREANAME
2005
05--10
10--15
15-20
20-25
25-30
30-35
% 05-35
Dutchess
102.3
4.6
6.7
6.9
7.8
6.0
5.6
37%
Orange
123.4
5.5
7.9
7.7
7.4
7.0
5.4
33%
Putnam
34.5
1.5
1.6
2.4
2.1
1.3
30%
Rockland
92.9
12.0
-5.0
2.7
1.2
-0.5
13%
Sullivan
29.4
1.8
2.3
4.1
11.2
8.8
103%
Ulster
68.4
3.9
5.2
6.8
11.1
14.4
18.6
88%
Household increments, number are in thousands. Sullivan and Ulster will have the biggest increase.

26. Job Growth Trends 2005-2035 Dutchess, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Sullivan and Ulster Counties
Total employment -- at 1.1% yearly, growth rate exceeds US & Region (0.9% yearly)
Strong performance due to Proprietors (1.8% yearly)
Payroll employment same as Nation’s growth (0.9% yearly)
Industry leaders -- Professional & Business Services, Personal Services, Transportation, Construction.
Industry losers – Manufacturing
Dutchess County grows faster than the 6-county region (1.1% yearly)
Orange falls behind 6-county region (0.8% yearly)
The others grow in pace with the region in payroll employment growth rate (0.9% yearly)
Total Employment includes payroll employment and proprietor employment.
Proprietor employment is self employment

27. Employment Projections by County
2005
2015 %
2025 %
2035 % %
Dutchess
150.9
171.2
13%
193.2
213.5
10%
42%
Orange
157.3
189.6
21%
210.3
11%
225.2 7%
43%
Putnam
34.6
43.1
25%
47.2 9%
50.3
45%
Rockland
145.0
167.1
15%
184.3
199.4 8%
37%
Sullivan
35.4
41.6
18%
46.1
49.8
41%
Ulster
82.8
96.3
16%
106.8
114.0
38%
A table of employment forecast

28. Proprietor Employment Forecast by County
AREANAME
2005
2015
% 05-15
2025
%15-25
2035
% 25-35
% 05-35
Dutchess
28.6
37.1
30%
41.9
0.5%
45.0 7%
57%
Orange
34.0
52.0
53%
61.9
13%
68.1
10%
100%
Putnam
12.2
16.8
38%
19.3
19%
20.9 8%
71%
Rockland
30.5
40.8
34%
46.6
15%
50.3
65%
Sullivan
9.3
12.7
36%
14.5
14%
15.7
69%
Ulster
21.3
28.0
32%
31.8
34.2
61%

29. Total Employment by County 2005-2035
The slope shows the strength of growth