1. Evaluation methods for SDG indicators The 2017 Belgian Assessment
Eurostat Sustainable Development and Europe 2020 Indicators Working Group
13-14 March 2018
Evaluation methods for SDG indicators The 2017 Belgian Assessment
Johan Pauwels
Federal Planning Bureau Task Force on Sustainable Development

2. trend assessment towards SDGs
Building blocks
indicators
r e s u l t s
communication
trend assessment towards SDGs
objectives
projections
calculations

3. Indicators and data Sustainable Development Indicators (SDIs) Data
1997 SD Act: SDI role in reporting
2012 dedicated website, with Eurostat project grant
2017 selection of two SDIs per SDG for Voluntary National Review to UN by Interfederal Statistical Institute
Data
time series 1990/
Statbel, Eurostat, other official sources

4. Objectives Adopted by policy makers
UN 2015: 17 SDGs with 169 ‘targets’ for 2030
Two types of objectives
targets: well-defined, quantified, time-bound
with desired direction only
Other commitments
Long-term Vision for Sustainable Development (2013)
Europe 2020 Strategy and National Reform Programme

5. Projections To go beyond observed 2000-2016 data
Existing in-depth research
Expected SDI evolution
taking into account other related data
assuming unchanged policy
Relevant Federal Planning Bureau projections
energy, climate, transport, poverty and inequality
available for 7 SDIs

6. Calculations Continue trend beyond observed 2000-2016 data
Method for target cases
trend calculation with Hodrick-Prescott method
extrapolation until 2030
Method for desired direction only cases
statistical significance of past changes
Spearman rank correlation

7. Trend assessment towards SDGs |1
Belgium on path to reach SDGs by 2030?
Answer based on
development over past 16 years
application of quantitative rules
NOT evaluation of
sustainability of current situation
position compared with other countries
ambition level of objectives

8. Trend assessment towards SDGs |2
objective = SDG
target 17
desired direction 34
SDI with observed data 2 5
SDI projection 7
2000
2030
2015
SDI significant change? 15
SDI calculated trend 12
SDI extrapolation

9. Results + – Compare proj./calc. outcomes with objectives
3 possible results + –
target
favourable = reached or near (10% margin)
unfavourable = not reached (distance > 10%)
impossible = erratic data
direction
favourable = right proj. | calc. significant
unfavourable = wrong proj. | calc. significant
undetermined = proj. stable | calc. not significant or impossible (lack of data)

10. Example 1 SDI with target and projection–
Risk of poverty or social exclusion
21.1
16.36
10.55

11. Example 2 SDI with target and trend extrapolation–
Official development assistance
0.7
0.49
0.42

12. Example 3 SDI with direction and correlation calc.
Water consumption +
70.1
60.1

13. 2017 SDI trend assessment: aggregated results
overall and by type of objective
Result
Trend assessment
Total
target
direction
favourable 5 7 12
impossible undetermined 1 8
unfavourable 11 3 14 17 34 + –

14. 2017 SDI trend assessment: detailed results–
01 - Risk of poverty or social exclusion 10.55
02 - Over-indebtedness of households 
03 - Adult obesity 
04 - Organic agriculture area 
05 - Premature deaths due to chronic diseases 68.6
06 - Daily smokers 13.1
07 - Early school leavers 0
08 - Lifelong learning 
09 - Gender pay gap 0
10 - Female members of parliament 50 – + – – – – +

15. + + + – + – + + + – – 11 - Nitrates in river water 
12 - Water consumption 
13 - Renewable energy 18
14 - Energy intensity 79.9
15 - Unemployment rate 
16 - Youth not in employment, education or training 
17 - Passenger transport by car 65
18 - Research and development 3
19 - Gini index 
20 - Risk of poverty 
21 - Inadequate dwelling 
22 - Exposure to particulate matter 10 + + – + – + + + – –

16. + – + + – – – 23 - Domestic material consumption 
23 - Domestic material consumption 
24 - Municipal waste 
25 - Natural disasters victims 1.97
26 - Greenhouse gas emissions non-ETS 51.8
27 - Sustainable fisheries 100
28 - Natura 2000 protected marine area 10
29 - Natura 2000 protected land area 
30 - Farmland birds population 
31 - Security feeling in public space 
32 - Trust in institutions 
33 - Official development assistance 0.7
34 - ODA to least developed countries 50 + – + + – – –

17. Communication of results |1
SD Report 2017
French Dutch
Press release | Press conference | Presentations

18. Communication of results |2
Detailed results and quick overview
one-page table with 34 SDIs organized by SDG
34 small graphs on six pages in Report
Aggregated results
overall and by type of objective
not at SDG level with only 34 SDIs
comment section in Report organized by 5 Ps
People - Planet - Prosperity - Peace - Partnership

19. Communication of results |3
SDI description
definition and objective
UN target and UN indicator
Website: assessment and much more data, including breakdowns and international comparison
Messages and policy recommendations
many SDIs moving in direction of objectives
efforts and policy changes needed to reach targets
need for translation of objectives into targets

20. Next steps Extend SDI set Classify SDIs by 5 Ps? 3 SD dimensions? …
Select SDIs with target
Strengthen link with 63 beyond GDP indicators
Classify SDIs by 5 Ps? 3 SD dimensions? …
Align with internat. SDG indicator developments
Reinforce communication
Use distance to target path method?

21. Thank you for your attention
Visit
Contact
> Task Force on Sustainable Development Federal Planning Bureau - Brussels, Belgium
>
> Johan Pauwels,