1. French Elections: Expectations & Reactions
Live Webinar
French Elections:
Expectations
&
Reactions

2. Thanks! My name is Justin Paolini… Welcome to today’s webinar.
10 years of experience trading FX of which 3 were spent first as a Sales Trader and then as a Broker.
6 years of experience as an educator, with contributions published on Yahoo! Finanza, Trend Online, FX Street
Lecturer for the University of Ancona on Trading and Market Dynamics (since 2012)
My name is Justin Paolini… Welcome to today’s webinar.

3. French Election: Expectations & Reactions
Exit polls for the first round likely from 8pm CET on 23 April
Le Pen still on course to win, followed by Macron. But the recent rise in Mélenchon’s popularity has added a new twist
A high number of voters (36%) are still undecided meaning any of the top four candidates could conceivably make the run-off

4. French Election: timing & what to watch

5. French Election: timing & what to watch
French law prohibits the French media from publishing exit polls before 8pm CET, when the final polls close.
Indications may appear on foreign media websites earlier. There will also be official estimates of turnout at 12pm and 5pm on the day.
Surveys indicate that turnout could be low, which we think could favour the far-right nationalist candidate, Marine Le Pen.

6. French Election: the Wild Card Melanchon?

7. French Election: the Wild Card Melanchon?
Renegotiate EU treaties and hold Frexit ref
End independence of the ECB
EU-sceptic and anti-globalisation stance (a-la-LePen)
Rejects free trade agreements and the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact
Advocates alliance of southern European countries to fight austerity
Wants Bank of France to buy public debt and repeal the El Khomri labour market reforms.

8. French Election: the Wild Card Melanchon?

9. French Election: who is the best salesman?
Income key issue likely to influence vote with Unemployment second place
Mélenchon may have gained ground by focussing on this – in particular relative to Le Pen whose top priorities (notably terrorism and crime) perceived as less important.
Don’t lose sight of the fact that most polls have indicated that Le Pen will win the first round, ahead of Macron.

10. French Election: Recap & Main Points
Large undecided vote = potential for lower turnout to affect the outcome.
Lower turnout = greater the uncertainty
Key metric from 2002: turnout was only 21% at midday,58% at 5:00 PM. Less than this and expect nasty surprize (LePen?)
Four candidates in the running with Macron vs Le Pen most the likely second-round scenario. Positive surprise would be Macron vs. Fillon; negative would be Le Pen vs. Melenchon.
 JPY to gain the most if Le Pen or Melenchon elected

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12. Justin Paolini
THANK YOU! 12