1. Impact Pathway and Theory of Change
Michael Hauser
Principal Scientist and Theme Leader
Markets, Institutions, Nutrition, Diversity

2. ‘There is nothing quite as practical as a good theory’
Kurt Lewin
(1890–1947)

3. Theory of change
(…) a description of the logical causal relationships among a strategic approach and multiple levels of conditions (…) needed to achieve a long-term result.‘
Succeeds and fails depending on the the validity of its underpinning social science theories.
Source: USAID Office of Forestry and Biodiversity CONTACT

4. Seven Targets SLO 2: Improved Food and Nutrition Security for Health
1.2 / 2.0 percent of yield increase for GLDC crops
SLO1 Reduce Poverty
8.9 / 21.7 million farm households adopted improved GLDC varieties
12.7 / 24.8 million of meet daily energy dietary requirements, 50% women
4.4 / 11.8 million people exit poverty, 50% women
29.8 / 50.3 million people meet daily protein dietary requirements, 50% women
SLO 3 Improved Natural Resources Systems and Ecosystems services
7.5 / 12.6 million women of reproductive age meet daily protein dietary requirements
4.9 / 13.1 million tons cumulative carbon input to soils (from2017) from GLDC

5. Socio-technical regime shifts
One perspective:
Socio-technical regime shifts
Geels, Frank W., The multi-level perspective on sustainability transitions: Responses to seven criticisms. Environ. Innov. Soc. Transitions 1, 24–40. doi: /j.eist

6. Future demand for GLDCs
Fourth best choice
FP5: Pre-breeding and Trait Discovery
Replication of successful initiatives developed
Middle-range theories
FP4: Variety and Hybrid Development
Capacity development
Inter-and transdisciplinary research to connect component solution
Partnerships, platforms and relationships across stakeholders
FP3: Integrated Farm and Household Management
Transition theories
FP2: Transforming Agri-food Systems
Strategic niche management, Innovation
Political economy and Power
Integrated technological, institutional and policy solutions with key partners
Informs policy-makers, development NGOs and private sector
FP1: Priority Setting and Impact Acceleration
First Impact Pathway ‘Integrative solutions’
Second Impact Pathway ‘Scaling and Sustaining’
Behaviour Change
Barriers to capturing these opportunities
Tackle system-level change in agri-food system regime
Future demand for GLDCs

7. Five + one assumptions
Foresight provides the information for inclusive priority setting (demand-driven breeding priorities, agricultural technologies, marketing).
Scalable inclusive business leverages consumer demand for GLDCs.
Combination of technologies, learning and institutional reforms improves farm management.
Responsive breeding and affordable decentralized seed systems can be initiated.
Trait-specific genetically diverse and desirable germplasm lines and the breeding materials can be developed from pre-breeding.
Hands-on research will attract political will and financial support

8. Conditions for success
Inter- and transdisciplinary research, strategic partnerships, effective communication
Science quality : knowledge of literature, cutting edge research (chose scientific problems)
Professional science management
Reflexive practice, M&E and learning, learning, learning

9. Thank you Demand-driven Innovation for the Drylands
In partnership with CGIAR Centers, public and private organizations, governments, and farmers worldwide
Thank you