1. ESCB experiences with breaks in labour market time series
Colm Bates
Economist-Statistician
European Central Bank
ESCB experiences with breaks in labour market time series
LABOUR FORCE SURVEY WORKSHOP 2018
Reykjavik; May 2018

2. Overview 1. Motivation 2. Overview of responses 3.
Visualisation of examples given 4.
Methods used to overcome breaks 5.
Conclusions

3. Motivation
Framework Regulation Integrating European Social Statistics anticipates breaks
NSIs concerned about ability to address breaks
Potential interruption to regular monthly unemployment rate
Interruptions to MIP indicator and other headline indicators
Dedicated session at LFS Methodology Workshop
ECB could present a user point of view
Questionnaire launched

4. Overview of questionnaire and responses
Series:
e.g. LFS.Q.AT.N.UNEMPL.TOTAL0.15_99.T
Description of break:
Austrian LFS Data have a break between 2003 and 2004
Use of series/intended use of series:
descriptive statistics or analysis of microdata. For BMPE, LFS data are not relevant with the exception of unemployment data
How did you detect the break:
Information by Statistics Austria (substantial change in sampling method, starting with 1Q2004)
Treatment of data:
Partly, we account for the breaks with backward calculation with growth rates, partly we use EUROSTAT series, which are already adjusted (e.g. NC_UNE_RT_Q.S_ADJ.NSA.AGE.TOTAL.UNIT.THS_PER.SEX.T.GEO.AT)
Overview of questionnaire
Completed between and
Sought diverse examples of breaks in series
Including description of the break
How the break was detected
How the break was treated
Openness was encouraged
Similar questionnaire also circulated at ECB.
Overview of responses
21 NCBs responded to the WG GES written procedure.
13 NCBs provided examples using the questionnaire.
8 NCBs replied in writing only
Those NCBs who replied in writing only specified close working relationships with NSIs as the leading cause to not have problems with breaks in series.
ECB replies were mostly focused on national data
Types of series and uses
A wide range of series
Mainly sourced from LFS
Regular economic analysis
Forecasting
Estimation of underutilisation/underemployment
Comparison with other data; descriptive statistics

5. Visualisation of examples given: Reclassifications

6. Visualisation of examples given: Level shifts

7. Visualisation of examples given: Missing Values

8. Visualisation of examples given: Mixed

9. Methods used to overcome breaks Data interpolation
Use of conversions tables and micro data
Use of overlapping quarters
No intervention
Use of alternative sources
Use of additive and multiplicative factors
Dummy variables

10. Methods used to overcome breaks Use of overlapping periods to preserve annual growth rates

11. Methods used to overcome breaks Use of ARIMA modelling and additive factors3 2
Technicians and associate professionals, Ireland
- Does not preserve levels 1

12. Methods used to overcome breaks Joint ARIMA modelling, with additive factors, based on conversion tables

13. Methods used to overcome breaks Use of alternative series

14. Conclusions Þakka þér fyrir!
Breaks are an inconvenience to users, they are able to manage those breaks.
The methods used are heterogeneous and case specific.
Introduction of new Implementing Regulations could disrupt and overwhelm users.
There is a good relationships between NCBs and NSIs in the field of labour market statistics,
NSIs and NCBs are encouraged to work at a national level to ensure data needs understood and met.
Þakka þér fyrir!