1. Simulation of a shared fleet of autonomous cars in Canberra
Kent Fitch Project Computing Pty Ltd
6th Australian ITS Summit August 2018

2. Key Result
Company
The most economical and efficient shared AV fleet will require journeys to be shared during peak periods.

3. 35km
25km
Only 400k people, but they are spread thinly

4. Tidal flows dominate
periods of peak
demand
Morning ...

5. Tidal flows dominate
periods of peak
demand
... Afternoon

6. Convenience High Uptake Model Cost Service requirements for
Door-to-Door
24x7
On demand (no booking)
> 98% within 1 minute
> 99.5% within 3 mins
No slower, end-to-end, than private car
Cost
Cheaper than private car
Service requirements
for
High Uptake Model
750,000 weekday journeys

7. Vehicle Base Model Cost: $40,000 Spares: additional 5%
Life: 3 years zero residual value
Range: 200 km usable
Maintenance + cleaning: $2000pa + 2.5c/km
Efficiency: 6km/kWHr

8. Charging stations Base Model Cost: $15,000
Life: 10 years zero residual value
Rate: 75kW, 80% efficient (meter to motor)
Maintenance + rent: $3000pa
Electricity: 20c/kWHr

9. All capital is borrowed at 10%pa
Base Model
Financing
All capital is borrowed at 10%pa $

10. Tariff Peak Weekdays 7-9am, 3-6pm 40c flagfall + 25c/km Base Model
Off peak c flagfall + 25c/km Shared journeys am, 3-7pm
Flagfall $0.40 Trip $2.75
Extras $0.00

11. 23,000 Service outcome for 1,500 High Uptake Model 2.5GWHr
Cars
23,000
(plus 5% spares)
Charging stations
1,500
Energy
2.5GWHr
per day
Surplus after financing
$75 million per year
Service outcome
for
High Uptake Model
750,000 weekday journeys

12. 57% Service outcome for High Uptake Model 22% km driven
Cars in passenger use
57%
over 24 hours
Dead running
(transfers)
22% km driven
Ratio of total km travelled to passenger service km
1.15
Service outcome
for
High Uptake Model
750,000 weekday journeys

17. Passenger wait times Minutes <= 1 98.3% 1 - 2 1.5% 2 - 3 0.14%
3 - 4
0.04%
4 - 5
0.01%
5 - 10
Maximum wait
7 minutes
% journeys with wait > 1 minute
1.7%
% journeys with wait > 3 minutes
0.06%

18. Financial summary, one vehicle, weekday
Revenue $ Expenses $
Fares
Capital & interest
Power & charger
Rego/insurance/comms/admin 6
Maintenance 84
Weekday surplus: $19 per vehicle
Weekend-day loss: $12 per vehicle
Annual surplus: ~$3400 per vehicle

24. But what about congestion?

29. 2.1 most popular (congested) routes 1.8 - 2.0 to popular destinations
Congestion
Now
1.1 travellers/car
most popular (congested) routes
to popular destinations
network average
Simulation
during peak

30. Congestion Q.
But don’t the extra vehicle km travelled due to unoccupied transfers increase congestion? A.
No - journeys are unoccupied only in inverse proportion to demand for travel along that route.
Unshared private vehicles
Shared AV fleet

31. Shared journeys drive a virtuous chain...
Better, cheaper service
Higher uptake
Faster response
Higher utilisation
Lower costs
Less congestion
Positive feedback
Efficiency increases as average occupancy rises during peaks
Vehicles required increases slower than number of passengers