1. Judgment & Decision Making A Few Final Comments
Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 12/07/2017: Lecture 11-2
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2. Outline Psych 466 Final Exam
Benefits of studying the psychology of decision making
Recommended books for further study
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17
Benefits of Studying JDM

3. Benefits of the Psychology of Judgment and Choice
Awareness of potential decision making errors
Potential errors: Availability, base rate neglect, framing effects, endowment effects, focusing illusion, impact bias, ....
Corrections for errors: Inside view versus the outside view, changing the framing of a decision, working on the definition of the decision
Errors: Availability, base rate neglect, endowment effects,
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17
Add to Slide: Systematic Methods for Decision Making

4. Benefits of the Psychology of Judgment and Choice
Awareness of potential decision making errors
Systematic methods for decision making
Linear judgment models, especially, weighted linear model.
Ben Franklin method
Smart Choices - PrOACT System
Useful in everyday life
Errors: Availability, base rate neglect, endowment effects,
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17
Add to Slide: Scientific & Academic Importance of JDM Research

5. Benefits of the Psychology of Judgment and Choice
Awareness of potential decision making errors
Systematic methods for decision making
Scientific and academic applications of the psychology of decision making
Neuroscience models of decision processes in the brain
JDM research into macro-level human decision making
Applications in social psychology, animal behavior, political psychology
Behavioral economics, health decision making, policy studies
Useful in everyday life
Errors: Availability, base rate neglect, endowment effects,
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17
Decision Analysis - What Is It?

6. Decision Analysis – What Is It?
Central question of decision analysis: How can we best make decisions in real situations?
Decision analysis tends to have a practical focus, although it pays attention to theoretical and experimental work in economics, engineering and psychology.
Taught in business schools and engineering departments, although relevant courses are also taught in public health schools, law schools, psychology departments.
Technical field
Decision trees, influence diagrams
Cost/utility analysis (related to cost/benefit analysis)
Decision Analysis Books
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

7. Decision Analysis Books
Clemen, E. T., & Reilly, T. (2001). Making hard decisions. Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury Press.
Keeney, R. L. (1992). Value focused thinking: A path to creative decisionmaking. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1993). Decisions with multiple objectives. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.
von Winterfeldt, D., & Edwards, W. (1986). Decision analysis and behavioral research. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Alemi, F., & Gustafson, D. (2006). Decision Analysis for Healthcare Managers. Chicago, IL: Health Administration Press.
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17
Psychology of Decision Making: JDM Books - Academic List

8. JDM Books - Academic List
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
Gilovich, T., Griffin, D., & Kahneman, D. (Eds.) (2002). Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P. & the ABC research group. (1999). Simple heuristics that make us smart. Oxford University Press.
Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., & Pachur, T. (2011). Heuristics: The foundations of adaptive behavior. New York: Oxford University Press.
1ST 2 books are interesting textbooks.
2nd 2 books are very useful edited books.
3rd 2 books are on special topics.
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17
JDM Books - Useful & Interesting

9. Judgment & Decision Making Books - Useful & Interesting
Ariely, D. (2010). Predictably irrational: The hidden forces that shape our decision. New York: Harper/Collins.
Ariely, D. (2010). The upside of irrationality: The unexpected benefits of defying logic at work and at home. New York: Harper Collins.
Chapman, G. B., & Sonnenberg, F. (2000). Decision making in health care: Theory, psychology, and applications. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Gilbert, D. T. (2006). Stumbling on happiness. New York: Knopf.
Koehler, D. J., & Harvey, N. (Eds.) (2004). Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making. Oxford: Blackwell.
Plous, S. (1993). The psychology of judgment and decision making. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Stanovich, K. E. (2009). Decision making and rationality in the modern world. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
1ST 2 books are interesting textbooks.
2nd 2 books are very useful edited books.
3rd 2 books are on special topics.
JDM Books - Simply Good Books
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

10. JDM Books - Simply Good Books
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow.
Gigerenzer, G. (2010). Rationality for Mortals: How People Cope with Uncertainty.
Hammond, J. S., Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1998). Smart choices.
Ariely, D. (2010). Predictably irrational: The hidden forces that shape our decision.
Lewis, M. (2017). The undoing project.
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17
Related UW Courses

11. Related UW Courses PSYCH 445 Theories of Social Psychology
PSYCH 462 Human Memory
PSYCH 469 Psychology of Reasoning
PSYCH 471 Applied Issues in Cognition
Psych 469 & 471 are the most related to JDM.
Psych 445 & 462 are generally related.
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17
Don't Work Too Hard: Best of Luck

12. Best of Luck
END
Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17

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Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '17