1. U.S. Solar Industry Update
David Feldman, NREL
April 2018
Symposium on Energy in the 21st Century

2. Cumulative Global PV Deployment
At the end of 2017, global PV installations reached 414 GW-DC, an annual increase of 98 GW-DC from 2016
In 2010, Europe had installed 76% of global PV capacity; since then, emerging markets, such as China, the U.S., Japan, and India have greatly expanded.
Source: BNEF (2018).

3. Global Annual PV Shipments by Region*
In 2017 global PV shipments were approximately 92 GW – an increase of 32% from 2016.
98% of the PV shipments came from Asian countries, with China supplying 57%.
From 2004 to 2017 the compounded average growth rate of global PV shipments was 41%, with growth coming most from Asia.
In 2005, Japan, the U.S. and Europe shipped 92% of global PV modules, falling to 5% in 2017.
The U.S. supplied approximately 0.5% of global PV modules in 2017.
*Note: Excludes inventory sales and outsourcing.
Source: : Paula Mints. "Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price & Revenues 2017/2018." SPV Market Research. Report SPV-Supply6. April 2018.

4. 2017 U.S. Generation and Capacity
At the end of 2017, solar represented 3.9% of net summer capacity and 1.9% of annual generation.
At the end of 2017 all renewables represented 20.6% of net summer capacity and 17.6% of annual generation.
Despite solar representing a large amount of new generation, it still represents a relatively small amount of total U.S. capacity and generation.
62% of U.S. generation came from fossil fuels in 2017 with another 20% coming from nuclear.
Capacity is not proportional to generation as certain technologies (e.g. nat. gas) have lower capacity factors than others (e.g. nuclear).
Sources: EIA, “Electric Power Monthly” Tables 6.1, 6.2B, 1.1, 1.1A; 2018.

5. U.S. Generation Capacity Additions by Source
EIA reports that 32% of all new electricity generating capacity came from solar installations in 2017—second to natural gas (41%).
The U.S. has installed ~23 GW of new capacity per year in past decade, while retiring ~18 GW annually in the past five years—the retirements are mostly gas plants, which are being replaced, and coal plants.
It would take years to change the entire U.S. generation fleet at the current pace of replacement.
Despite a drop in UPV installations, EIA estimates that DPV grew in 2017 y/y.
Solar and wind represented approximately 57% of all new sources of generation in 2017, compared to 63% in 2016.
Sources: EIA “Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory” (December 2017). EIA, “Electric Power Monthly” Table 6.1; PV data prior to 2015 from GTM Research / SEIA, assuming an ILR of 1.2.

6. Solar Generation as a Percentage of Total Generation, 2014 - 2017
The ten states with the highest percentage of solar penetration generated at least 3.5% of their energy from solar in 2017, with California leading the way at 15.6%.
In 2017, the U.S. as a whole produced approximately 1.9% of it’s electricity using solar technologies.
Note: EIA monthly data for 2017 are not final. Additionally, smaller utilities report information to EIA on a yearly basis, and therefore, a certain amount of solar data has not yet been reported. “Net Generation” includes DPV generation.
Sources: EIA, “Electric Power Monthly,” forms EIA-023, EIA-826, and EIA-861 (February 2018).

7. Monthly U.S. Solar Generation, 2013 - 2017
Total peak monthly U.S. solar generation increased by a factor of 4 from 2013 to 2017
U.S. electric generation in December (during the low seasonal period of electric generation) was well above peak solar production in 2015.
Note: EIA monthly data for 2017 are not final. Additionally, smaller utilities report information to EIA on a yearly basis, and therefore, a certain amount of solar data has not yet been reported. “Net Generation” includes DPV generation.
Sources: EIA, “Monthly Energy Review,” (March 2018).

8. In California, sometimes non-hydro renewable electricity is > 50%
In California, on March 4, 2018 at noon:
~9 GW solar electricity
~13 GW non-hydro renewable electricity
19-20 GW total demand
4 GWh (~1% of total) were curtailed
Source: Sarah Kurtz.

9. Watching the duck grow fat
Source: Sarah Kurtz.

10. U.S. Storage Capacity Additions by Source
The U.S. has installed approximately 800 MW of battery storage, mostly from 2015 to 2017.
However, battery storage still represents a small resource when compared to the 130 GW of PV and wind installed in the U.S. at the end of 2017.
Source: Utility-scale data: EIA “Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory” (December 2017); distributed data: EIA, form 861M.

11. U.S. Installation Breakdown
Sources: GTM Research/SEIA: U.S. Solar Market Insight Q

12. U.S. Installation Breakdown
The top 5 states represented approximately 53% of the U.S. PV market in 2017 – the lowest level in at least 12 years.
Part of that reason is that from 2016 to , the California market contracted for the first time over that period.
States outside of the top 5 contracted 11% from 2016 to 2017, however installed capacity was still 124% higher than 2015 values.
Sources: GTM Research/SEIA: U.S. Solar Market Insight Q

13. Federal Tax Credit
The 30% U.S. federal tax credit for solar electric generation systems was originally passed in 2005, and then extended in 2008 and before it was set to expire.
Commercial credit reverts to 10% if projects are not completed by year end 2023
The ITC’s were renewed for 5 years in the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2016 (H.R. 2029) Omnibus bill
Originally set to revert to 10% (Section 48 for business owners) or expire (Section 25D for residential owners) in 2017, the 30% credits were extended through 2020, and will step down through 2022
Section 48 (business owners): 26% in 2020, 22% in 2021, and 10% in 2022; bill changes deadlines from “placed in service” to “start of construction” for projects placed in service before
Section 25D (residential owners): 26% in 2020, 22% in 2021, and expires in 2022 (deadlines remain “placed in service”
The agreement was paired with an extension a 5-year Wind PTC extension (which will decline in value beginning in 2017), and an end to the crude oil export ban
Other technologies such as geothermal, biomass, landfill gas, incremental hydroelectric and ocean energy projects will have until December 2016 to start construction to qualify for PTC or ITC
The Clean Power Plan begins to take effect in 2022 which may provide additional
incentives for solar
Source: Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2016 (H.R. 2029).

14. Renewable Portfolio Standards
29 States and Washington D.C. have Renewable Portfolio Standards, 8 States have goals, and 22 states have an RPS with solar or DG provisions
/ February 2017
WA: 15% x 2020*
OR: 50%x 2040*
(large utilities)
CA: 50%
x 2030
MT: 15% x 2015
NV: 25% x
2025*
UT: 20% x 2025*†
AZ: 15% x 2025*
ND: 10% x 2015
NM: 20%x 2020 (IOUs)
HI: 100% x 2045
CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs) *†
OK: 15% x 2015
MN:26.5%
x 2025 (IOUs)
31.5% x 2020 (Xcel)
MI: 15% x 2021*†
WI: 10% 2015
MO:15% x 2021
IA: 105 MW
IN: 10% x 2025†
IL: 25% x 2026
OH: 12.5% x 2026
NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs)
VA: 15% x 2025†
KS: 20% x 2020
ME: 40% x 2017 DC
TX: 5,880 MW x 2015*
SD: 10% x 2015
SC: 2% 2021
NY:50% x 2030
NH: 24.8 x 2025
VT: 75% x 2032
MA: 15% x 2020(new resources)
6.03% x 2016 (existing resources)
RI: 38.5% x 2035
CT: 27% x 2020
NJ: 20.38% RE x 2020
+ 4.1% solar by 2027
PA: 18% x 2021†
DE: 25% x 2026*
MD: 25% x 2020
DC: 50% x 2032
Renewable portfolio standard
Renewable portfolio goal
The ITC’s were renewed for 5 years in the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2016 (H.R. 2029) Omnibus bill
Originally set to revert to 10% (Section 48 for business owners) or expire (Section 25D for residential owners) in 2017, the 30% credits were extended through 2020, and will step down through 2022
Section 48 (business owners): 26% in 2020, 22% in 2021, and 10% in 2022; bill changes deadlines from “placed in service” to “start of construction” for projects placed in service before
Section 25D (residential owners): 26% in 2020, 22% in 2021, and expires in 2022 (deadlines remain “placed in service”
The agreement was paired with an extension a 5-year Wind PTC extension (which will decline in value beginning in 2017), and an end to the crude oil export ban
Other technologies such as geothermal, biomass, landfill gas, incremental hydroelectric and ocean energy projects will have until December 2016 to start construction to qualify for PTC or ITC
The Clean Power Plan begins to take effect in 2022 which may provide additional
incentives for solar
Source: Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2016 (H.R. 2029). *
Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables †
Includes non-renewable alternative resources

15. www.dsireusa.org / November 2017
Net Metering
38 States and Washington D.C. have mandatory net metering rules.
Five states issued successor net metering decisions in 2017, bringing the total to 10 DC
U.S. Territories: GU AS PR VI
KEY
State-developed mandatory rules for certain utilities (38 states + DC+ 3 territories)
The ITC’s were renewed for 5 years in the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2016 (H.R. 2029) Omnibus bill
Originally set to revert to 10% (Section 48 for business owners) or expire (Section 25D for residential owners) in 2017, the 30% credits were extended through 2020, and will step down through 2022
Section 48 (business owners): 26% in 2020, 22% in 2021, and 10% in 2022; bill changes deadlines from “placed in service” to “start of construction” for projects placed in service before
Section 25D (residential owners): 26% in 2020, 22% in 2021, and expires in 2022 (deadlines remain “placed in service”
The agreement was paired with an extension a 5-year Wind PTC extension (which will decline in value beginning in 2017), and an end to the crude oil export ban
Other technologies such as geothermal, biomass, landfill gas, incremental hydroelectric and ocean energy projects will have until December 2016 to start construction to qualify for PTC or ITC
The Clean Power Plan begins to take effect in 2022 which may provide additional
incentives for solar
Source: Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2016 (H.R. 2029).
No statewide mandatory rules, but some utilities allow net metering (2 states)
Statewide distributed generation compensation rules other than net metering (7 states + 1 territory)
/ November 2017

16. Bottom-Up Modeled System Price of PV Systems by Sector, 2010–2017
From 2010 to 2017, modeled system prices fell 15%–26% per year.
48%–62% of reduction attributed to module price reductions
Source: Fu, R., D. Feldman, R. Margolis, M. Woodhouse, and K. Ardani, U.S. Photovoltaic (PV) Prices and Cost Breakdowns: Q Benchmarks for Residential, Commercial, and Utility-Scale Systems. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

17. U.S. PV pricing has rapidly dropped in recent years.
There has been a strong, steady downward PPA price trend since 2006, with an average levelized price signed in 2016 of ~$35/MWh.
Source: Bolinger, M. , J. Seel, K. H. LaCommare Utility-Scale Solar 2016: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States. Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

18. Thank You

19. The value of solar has declined in America’s largest solar market.
With increasing solar penetration in California, solar curtailment has increased while solar’s wholesale energy value has declined.
In 2012, when solar penetration was ~2%, solar earned 126% of the average wholesale power price.
In 2016, with solar penetration at ~12%, solar earned just 83% of the average wholesale power price.
Most other U.S. markets are not yet facing this value decline, due to lower levels of solar penetration, however some markets may see this occur in the near future.
Source: Bolinger, M. , J. Seel, K. H. LaCommare Utility-Scale Solar 2016: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States. Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.