1. CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016
CLEANER COWS (Consequential Life cycle assessment of EnvironmentAl and ecoNomic Effects of daiRy and beef COnsolidation and intensification pathWayS)
National Research Network for Low Carbon Energy and Environment (NRN-LCEE) cluster: Bangor University (James Gibbons, Alejandra González Mejía, David Styles) Aberystwyth University (Andreas Foskolos, Jon Moorby) Cardiff University (Max Munday, Annum Raffique)
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CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016
17th December, 2015

2. CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016
1. Dairy C&I
Low milk prices (farm gate: £0.33/L in 2013 to £0.24/L in 2016)
Lifting of EU quotas
Low commodity (input) prices
Social changes (farm succession?)
Technology & breeding (higher yields, less labour)
Environmental pressures & regulation
= Ongoing consolidation and intensification (C&I) of dairy industry
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CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016

3. CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016
1. Dairy C&I
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CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016

4. CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016
2. C&I pathways
Two main C&I pathways in UK:
Large grazing-based farms
(higher margins per L)
Large indoor farms
(higher margins per ha)
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CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016

5. CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016
3. Global interlinkages
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CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016

6. CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016
3. Trade-offs
Changing feed types has significant LUC implications
Also ”spared” grass area
Need for consequential LCA (vs “static” attributional LCA) (Rafael Silva ppt yesterday)
Economic modelling inputs
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CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016

7. CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016
3. Trade-offs
Trade-offs between diets
Feed digestibility vs soil carbon, and terrestrial C loss from imported soya
Use of spared UK grassland?
Trade-offs indoor vs outdoor (manure storage vs urine N2O)
Lagoons more likely in larger farms?
Nutrient management planning effects (actual vs potential)?
Potential for anaerobic digestion in very large farms?
High yield vs animal longevity and reduced (efficient) co-production of beef
Higher margins vs less employment…
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CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016

8. CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016
4. Questions
How does infrastructure (e.g. slurry storage), management (e.g. grazing control) and performance (L/cow) differ in growing vs exiting dairy farms? (Patrick Veysset ppt on beef yesterday)
What does this mean for farm economic and environmental performance?
How do different C&I pathways compare in terms of global environmental change and regional socio-economic change?
GVA, commodity trade, land use, emissions…
What are the most effective management practices and policies to drive sustainable intensification of dairy production?
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CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016

9. CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016
5. Farm modelling
FBS data, Nottingham University expertise: characterize growing and existing farms
IBERS expertise: model animal diets, CH4, nutrient cycling and propose mitigation options
Bangor University expertise: economic & LCA evaluation of economic & environmental efficiency
Milk footprints (e.g. kg CO2e/L milk; kg Ne/L milk; MJe/L milk)
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CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016

10. CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016
6. Economic modelling
FBS stats, Defra stats, Nottingham University and Advisory board expertise to define Wales and UK scenarios of dairy C&I
Cardiff University expertise in Wales/UK Input-Output tables and Computational General Equilibrium modelling to predict effects of economic and policy changes
Integrate BU farm economic model with CU CGE model to upscale scenarios and feedbacks (e.g. milk prices to farm practices and diets) and identify socio-economic effects of C&I pathways
Apply consequential LCA to quantify net (global) environmental changes associated with dairy C&I pathways
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CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016

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7. Conclusions
Farm modelling will elucidate economic and environmental efficiency of different farm systems, management practices and mitigation options
Macro-economic modelling will identify feedbacks and wider regional/national effects on employment, trade flows and GVA
Scenario modelling & consequential LCA will provide unique insight into overall socio-economic and environmental changes (i.e. sustainability)
Won’t generate the precise “answer”, but will generate valuable insight into wider consequences of C&I pathways and mitigation options
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CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016

12. Thanks for your attention!
More information available at:
Project web page:
Tel: +44 (0)
ATP-Pasture distance learning modules:
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CLEANER COWS GFP Conference 2016