1. Chapter 7: Population Futures

2. Different Assumptions -> Different Predictions ->
3 factors that affect population size
Total fertility rate
Life expectancy
Migration
Medium variant: Numerical population models projecting the most likely outcome.
High variant: Highest likely projection.
Low variant: Lowest likely projection.
UN predicts 2025 world population to be between 8-10 billion, w/ medium variant of 9.2 billion.

3. Old Core to New Core
Old Core: countries that are highly globalized for many years. W. Europe, Canada, US, Japan, Australia, etc.
New Core: countries that have joined the core recently. Brazil, India, China, etc.
Near Core: countries that are most globalized and closest to joining the core. Ecuador, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc.
Far Periphery: countries that are least globalized and furthest from joining. Haiti, Ethiopia, DR of the Congo, etc.

4. Population Futures in the Old Core and Eastern Europe
Implications of very low fertility rates will first be felt in Japan, Russia, and eastern European countries.
Where is the Population of the Core Heading?
NORTH AMERICA
Pop. expected to rise until around 2025, then decline from approx. 400 million. to 300 million b/c of low fertility rates, esp. in Canada

5. Population Futures in the Old Core and Eastern Europe
JAPAN, AUSTRALIA, & NEW ZEALAND
Pop. expected to be stable, but expected to decline from 155 million to 100 million by 2100, mainly in Japan.
EASTERN EUROPE
Birth dearth: Population decline due to low total fertility rate, has already began with much of eastern Europe.

6. What Are the Implications of the Birth Dearth?
1. Family Structures
Small families have become the norm, where “little emperors” become spoiled by many family members
Elders will have no one to take care of them.
DINKs, double income no kids couples, become more common and begin depending on friends or co-workers to fill the void left by small families

7. What Are the Implications of the Birth Dearth?
2. Aging Populations
Next century is expected to be dominated by the elderly
Pension plans: which provide income for retirees, will become more expensive and difficult to fund
3 solutions are possible
Reducing pension benefits
Increasing contributions to pensions
Restricting pension eligibility based on income

8. What Are the Implications of the Birth Dearth?
2. Aging Populations
Young workers may become less willing to lose more income to support pensions
Future workforces are expected to be older as well.
No experience in history has dealt with this.

9. What Are the Implications of the Birth Dearth?
3. Labour Shortages
Workers over 55 years old has doubled from
Early retirements and longer time spent in school adds to labour shortages
Retirement age may have to increase to 70 to support future economy.

10. What Are the Implications of the Birth Dearth?
3. Labour Shortages
One solution is to attract labourers from other countries to fill the jobs locals do not want.
Many developed countries are very anti-immigration, creating racial intolerance
Foreign skilled workers may no longer want to come work in developed countries b/c of labour shortages in their own countries

11. What Are the Implications of the Birth Dearth?
4. Economic Effects
Growth occurs for two reasons
People become wealthier and demand more goods and services
More people on the planet creates more demand for goods/services
If population implosion occurs, a decline in consumers will lead to a decline in demand for goods/services, declining economic output

12. What Are the Implications of the Birth Dearth?
5. Shift in World Power
Who will become new world powers when traditional powerhouses such as UK, France and Russia continue to face decline in population?
Benefits of the Birth Dearth for the World
Env. gain since fewer people means less use of resources, and less waste being produced

13. Why Is the Birth Dearth Happening?
Most critically is the changing role of women in society
Better educated, tend to have less children
Careers outside the home
Have longer careers
Have more control of their lives
Marry later, or stay single
More likely to divorce
Greater access to birth control
People have greater control of their life decisions

14. Can We Prevent a Population Implosion?
Pronatalist strategies: Ideas to encourage peopleto have more kids such as tax breaks, or cheaper daycares
Designed to solve economic and social pressures felt by parents
Popular politically but don’t guarantee higher birth fertility rates
Another solution is to promote immigration

15. What Will Happen? No one knows how long birth dearth will last
Even with this growing problem, it is crucial to not ignore future potential population booms

16. Homework Read p. 101-110 Answer #3, #4, #8, #10, p. 111
Assignment: #11, p. 111