1. Proposed Budget Fiscal Year 2018/2019
TPAC
May 2018

2. HDR Historical Data Year Actual Trips HDR Projected % Difference FY13
2,677,808
2,617,060
-2.3%
FY14
2,922,690
2,786,564
-4.7%
FY15
3,157,388
3,182,653
0.8%
FY16
3,351,612
3,437,249
2.6%
FY17
3,422,166
3,458,984
1.1%
*FY18
2,525,117
2,456,142
-2.7%
FY18
3,605,156
FY19 -
3,439,702
The average of the six years pictured above is less than 1% % to be exact.
Given that each variable is assigned a central or median estimate and a range (i.e., a probability distribution) repre­senting an 80 percent confidence interval, based on historic observations, this model and its annual iterations have done a remarkable job of predicting ridership within a very narrow range.
Unlike fixed route, where annual revenue hours are calculated based timetables and figures are known to the minute, in paratransit, we must work based on predictions of what demand will be up to 18 months in advance!!!
*FY18 as of March 2018

3. Budget Process HDR Projections Metro Requirements Mid-Year Actuals
Report March/April
Metro Requirements
MOU
Review of draft budget
Submit Revised Budget
Submit Funding Request Letter
Metro Budget
Access Budget

4. Annual Passenger Growth
For FY18 passenger growth should be 2.6% Or 4,625,794 passengers
For FY19 passenger growth should be -1.1 or 4,574,728 passengers

5. Annual Trip Growth
For FY18 the trips should be 3,586,893 trip growth percent is 2.6%
For FY19 the trips should be trip growth percent is -2.4

6. Certified Riders

7. Service Demand
For FY18 the trips should be 3,586,893

8. Expenditures Paratransit Operations - $156.3 million
90.69% of Operating Expenditures
$136.1 million - Purchased Transportation Services
4,574,728 Passengers (3,439,702 Trips) – 1.1% decrease
Free Fare Program - $3.5 Million

9. Expenditures Eligibility Determination - $8.5 million
4.95% of Operating Expenses
41,460 In-Person Evaluations
CTSA - $0.65 million
0.38% of Operating Expenses
Administration - $6.9 million
3.98% of Operating Expenses
12.6 million to 8.5 reduction in eligibility

10. Budget Summary FY19 Budget % of Total Funding % of Operating Costs
Paratransit Operations
156,262,116
84.79%
90.69%
Eligibility Determination
8,520,475
4.62%
4.95%
CTSA Function
650,376
0.35%
0.38%
Administrative Expense
6,861,955
3.72%
3.98%
Operating Expense
172,294,924
93.49%
100.0%
Capital Expense
12,000,000
6.51%
Total Operating and Capital Expenses
184,294,924

11. FY19/FY18 Comparison Department FY19 Budget FY18 %
Paratransit Operations
156.26
146.7
6.5%
Eligibility Determination
8.52
12.6
-32.4%
CTSA Function
0.65
0.55
18.3%
Administrative Expense
6.86
7.02
-2.3%
Operating Expense
172.29
166.9
3.2%
Capital Expenditures
12.00
10.13
18.5%
Total Operating and Capital Expenses
184.29
177.03
4.1%
*figures in millions

12. Cost Per Trip

13. Proposed Funding Sources
OPERATING FUNDS
FUNDING %
PROPOSITION C - DISCRETIONARY FUNDS
$ ,083,127
47.3%
SECTION 5316 JARC (Access to Work Grant #2)
$ ,870
0.3%
SECTION FTA STP FUNDING - (88.53% of Contracted Paratransit Operations)
$ ,000,000
35.8%
Measure M Projects - Travel Training, WMR, Web Booking, Facilities Planning
$ ,500,000
0.8%
SECTION 5317 NEW FREEDOM GRANT (Tether Strap and Marking Program) + OOS
$ ,810
0.1%
INTEREST INCOME/MISCELLANEOUS
$ ,000
0.0%
DISPOSAL OF RETIRED VEHICLES
$ ,000
0.2%
PASSENGER FARES
$ ,573,737
5.2%
Prepaid Insurance/Carryover
$ ,893,379
3.7%
OPERATING REVENUES - SUBTOTAL 6/30/2019
$ ,294,924
93.5%
CAPITAL FUNDS
Section MAP21/Toll Lane Grant - Funds to be carried over from FY18 to FY19
$ ,000,000
6.5%
CAPITAL EXPENDITURES SUBTOTAL:
$ ,000,000
TOTAL FUNDING
$ 184,294,924
100.0%

14. Funding Sources - Historical

15. 2019 Initiatives Short Term Long Term MediCal VoIP
Online Reservations/applications
Facilities
AV Pilot
Long Term
Centralized Reservations
Centralized Dispatch
If you will remember, we negotiated rates for our contractors through FY18 to address the impact of minimum wage. However, we wanted to wait until after the receipt of proposals for the West/Central region to get a better gauge of pricing.
If you will remember, we will have another increase to the minimum wage in July 2018 of $1.25
And another increase in July 2019 of $1.00
And a final increase of $0.75 in July of 2020.
West/Central and Santa Clarita will not have to be negotiated as these two contracts will have been bid by the start of FY19. However, for the remainder, we will have to come back to board to address the financial impact.
In order for Access to modernize, we will need to have a true co-location for IT. Co-location will set the foundation for migrating to VOIP – this will generate savings of approximately 1.5 to $2 million annually.
Colocation also sets the stage for centralized reservations in the shorter term rather than years away.
Then, if it makes sense we will move to centralized dispatch.

16. Other Issues Grants STP Funding Measure M Funding
Parents With Disabilities
Marking and Tethering Grant
Access to Work
STP Funding
Current allocation is only through FY19
Measure M Funding
Access has requested funding for FY19 of $1.5MM
Strategic use of funds for Capital Acquisitions
PWD Grant will expire in June 30, Still in discussions with LAUSD but potential for partnering is not in the near term
MAT grant – Funding has run out.
ATW – Operating funds are enough to cover another year to year and a half. We will again apply for this grant for both operating and capital.
STP Funding
Our STP allocation only runs through FY Metro will have to go their Board to seek Access’ STP allocations for future years beginning FY 2020 through FY 2024 – We are still in discussions with Metro to secure this funding for future years.

17. Real Estate Update