1. Interpreting the CBI Service Sector Survey
The September 2007 Answering Practices Survey
Jonathan Wood
Head of CBI Survey Management Group

2. The September 2007 Answering Practices Survey
Addresses 2 main issues:
What factors respondents take into account when determining their answers
How to correctly interpret survey results
Presentation will focus on overall results covering 111 respondents, from a sample of 1,000 companies.
A 69% response of normal response
Survey was conducted by post

3. CBI Service Sector Survey
Launched in November 1998
Covers a broad range of services, grouped into those selling to consumers, and those selling to businesses (business and professional)
The Total Service Sector data is used by the Bank of England in informing its interest rate decisions and in estimates of national services output
Undertaken on a quarterly basis – Feb, May, Aug, Nov
Monthly version for EC undertaken since Sept 2002

4. Optimism
How respondents answer the question on optimism

5. Volume of business
Most important measures of volume of business

6. Assessing ‘normal’ levels of business
Most important benchmark in determining 'normal' business volumes

7. Trends
How respondents answer questions on ‘trend’ over past 3 months

8. Answering ‘up’ or ‘down’ rather than ‘same’
% variation around no change required for answer of ‘up’ or ‘down’

9. Seasonal variation
Are respondents able to exclude seasonal variations in their answers

10. Prices
For those price lists not revised at same time every year

11. The choice of online/email survey completion
Would respondents like online/ survey completion in addition to the usual postal service?

12. Possible new survey questions
Questions suggested by respondents to extend survey coverage:
Marketing expenditure: ‘Do you expect to authorise more or less marketing expenditure in the next twelve months than you authorised in the past twelve months?’
Profits: ‘What has been the trend in gross profits over the past three months and what is the expected trend over the next three months?’
‘What has been the trend in net profits over the past three months and what is the expected trend over the next three months?’
Reasons for change to outlook: Provide a list options for respondents to explain how they have changed their view of the outlook (both positive and negative factors).

13. Conclusions
38% of respondents assess optimism compared to 3 months ago
Value of income received is most important measure for volume of business
Respondents most commonly use a historical average when calculating ‘normal’ levels of business
Over half of respondents answer trend questions based on 3 months as a whole compared to previous 3 months
Half of respondents consider a 3-4% variation around no change as a trigger to answer ‘up’ or ‘down’ rather than ‘same’
Over two-thirds of all respondents do take seasonal variations into account when assessing changes in variables
59% of respondents do not revise their price lists at the same time every year, with many adjusting their prices depending on what the market/customer will bear

14. Interpreting the CBI Service Sector Survey
The September 2007 Answering Practices Survey
Jonathan Wood
Head of CBI Survey Management Group