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Abbott Laboratories NYSE: ABT
Xiaoming Luo, Muen Yue, Ni Zeng Presented: December 05, 2017
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Agenda Introduction Stock Market Prospect Company Overview
Industry Overview Macroeconomic Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Recommendation
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Stock Market Performance
Key Information Portfolio Weight by Cost Abbott Laboratories Fiscal Year End: December 31, 2017 Sector: Health Care Industry: Medical Appliance & Equipment Market Cap: $95.23Bn Share Price: $54.71 Shares owned: 400 Stock Market Performance *Price adjusted for AbbVie spin-off Source: Capital IQ
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Business Overview
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Overview Company Introduction Globalization
Abbott Laboratories is an Illinois corporation, incorporated in Abbott's principal business is the discovery, development, manufacture, and sale of a broad and diversified line of health care products. Strategy: Competes where it can achieve the critical mass and innovation needed to have significant impact and achieve market leadership Focuses on four major businesses: nutrition, diagnostics, pharmaceutical, medical devices. Globalization: 31% U.S. Sales, 69% International Sales in 2016 Featured Brands Source: Company 2016 Annual Report; Company Website
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Four Major Business Medical Devices Diagnostics
Cardiovascular Health Diabetes Care Diagnostics Accurate Timely Information Established Pharmaceutical Deliver High-Quality Trusted Medicines Nutrition Nourishment for Every Stage of Life Source: Company 2016 Annual Report; Company Website; Strategic Report on JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (01/10/2017)
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18.5% Established Pharmaceutical
Revenue Segment 13.9 % Medial Devices • Effectively integrate Abbott and St. Jude Medical businesses • Capture share in large established segments • Shape and grow emerging categories 18.5% Established Pharmaceutical • 100% focused on emerging markets • Leading positions in India, Russia and Latin America • Delivering strong sales growth 23.1% Diagnostics • Leading platforms in Core Laboratory, Point-of-Care and Molecular diagnostics • Plan to launch next-generation Alinity systems 33.1 % Nutrition • Build strong globally recognized brands • Capture share with innovation • Uniquely balanced across products and geographies Source: Company 2016 Annual Report; Strategic Report on JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (01/10/2017)
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Business Highlights in 2017
Four AlinityTM systems were launched internationally for clinical chemistry, immunoassay, blood screening and point of care. New U.S. Products Ensite PrecisionTM cardiac mapping system, which helps physicians more effectively treat patients experiencing arrhythmias in the heart. European Launches Confirm RXTM Alinity hq Canadian Approval FreeStyle® Libre Submitted for FDA Approval MRI-conditional labeling for the Quadra AssuraTM, which will allow heart failure patients to undergo full body MRI scans. Source: Company Presentation
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Leadership Miles D. White Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Miles D. White is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Abbott. He joined Abbott in 1984, was elected to the board of directors in 1998, and became CEO and chairman of the board in He is a member of the Business Council, and was formerly Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Miles D. White Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Hubert L. Allen was appointed to his current role in January Mr. Allen joined Abbott in 2006 as Senior Counsel, supporting the Pharmaceutical Products Division. He has held various positions within the legal Section Head. Prior to joining Abbott, Mr. Allen was Assistant General Counsel for McKesson Corporation. Hubert L. Allen Executive Vice President, General Counsel, Secretary Brian Blaser is Executive Vice President, Diagnostics Products. He was appointed to his current position in June Prior to joining Abbott, Mr. Blaser held several positions of increasing responsibility in engineering, finance and operations at Johnson & Johnson, Eastman Kodak and General Motors. Brian J. Blaser Executive Vice President, Diagnostics Products John Capek, Ph.D., is Executive Vice President, Ventures. Dr. Capek was appointed to his current position in June In this role, he leads Abbott’s venture investment organization as well as new ventures, including Abbott Electrophysiology. John M. Capek, Ph.D. Executive Vice President, Ventures Robert B. Ford Executive Vice President, Medical Devices He was appointed to his current position in June Previously, Mr. Ford served as Senior Vice President, Diabetes Care. He joined Abbott in 1996 as a Diagnostics Business Unit Manager for Abbott Brazil. He is a member of the California Life Sciences Association Board. Steve Fussell is Executive Vice President, Human Resources. He was promoted to this role in February Mr. Fussell joined Abbott in 1996, as Divisional Vice President, Compensation and Benefits. Prior to Abbott, he held human resources leadership positions at Nestlé and Shell.. Stephen R. Fussell Executive Vice President, Human Resources Source: Company Website
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Competitive Strategy & Risk Factors
Pursue leadership in every aspect of operations Have to be where the needs are greatest Being present, visible, and know around the world Optimal mix across multiple dimensions BALANCE PRESENCE LEADERSHIP RELEVANCE Strategy Risks Differing local product preferences and product requirements Trade Protection measuring and import or export licensing requirements Restrictions on local currency International Operation Abbott may not complete acquisitions transactions in a timely manner, on a cost-effective basis, or at all, and may not realize the expected benefits Acquisitions The process of obtaining regulatory approvals to market a drug or medical device can be costly and time-consuming, and approvals might not be granted for future products Governmental Regulations The expiration or loss of patent protection and licenses may affect Abbott's future revenues and operating income Patent & Licenses Source: Company 2016 Annual Report; K
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Spin-off & Major Acquisitions
2013: Separation of AbbVie 2014: Acquisition of CFR Pharmaceuticals and Veropharm January, 2017: Acquisition of St Jude Medical Feburary, 2017: The transaction of selling Abbott Medical Optics to Johnson & Johnson totally completed October, 2017: Acquisition of Alere Inc. Source: Company 2016 Annual Report; Company Website
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SWOT Analysis SWOT Analysis Strength Opportunities Weakness Threats
Leadership position in the market Strong brand name Diversified product lines Steady dividend growth Weakness Overall sales growth rate is conservative Research and development efforts may not succeed Acquisition activities are time-consuming Opportunities Global Expansion Merger & Acquisition Sales Growth in the emerging markets Threats Intense Competition Currency Exchange Rate Changes in credit markets or to Abbott's credit rating Changes in the health care regulatory environment Source: Company website; Annual report 2016
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Industry Overview
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Industry Analysis: 4 Major Segments
Expected growth rate: 15.1% Economic driver: healthcare expenditure per capita; number of adults aged 65 and older. Market share: 10%, #1 after acquisition of St. Jude Medical. Expected growth rate: 2.7% Economic driver: technological change; price of plastic materials and resin Market share: #1 in blood testing. Expected growth rate: 3.5% Economic driver: number of people with private health insurance; federal funding for Medicare and Medicaid Market share: less than 5% Expected growth rate: 4.2% Economic driver: healthy eating index; per capita disposable income Market share: 13%, #1 global adult nutrition, #1 in meal replacement product manufacturing Source: IBIS World, K
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Porter’s Five Forces Industry Competition Highly Competitive.
Merger & Acquisition actions. Competitive brands. No patent protection for generic drugs. High regulation level. High capital investments required. Many choice of suppliers. In house / oversea production. Both wholesale and retail buyers: major pharmacies/ hospitals, as well as individual buyers. Industry Competition Bargaining Power of Customers Bargaining Power of Suppliers Threat of Substitutes Threat of New Entrants Industry Competition HIGH Threat of New Entrants LOW Bargaining Power of Suppliers Threat of Substitutes Bargaining Power of Customers
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Macroeconomic Overview
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Number of adults aged 65 and older
Economic Drivers Number of adults aged 65 and older By 2050, almost one quarter of the world’s population will be over 60 years of age. In 2014, 422 million adults have diabetes. By 2050, almost 1 in 10 people will have diabetes. An aging population and a rise in chronic disease will increase healthcare expenditure. Source: IBIS World, World Bank, K
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Economic Drivers Trade-Weighted Index
Abbott’s business: 58% in developed markets, 42% in emerging markets. Earnings are sensitive to exchange rate. The trade-weighted index (TWI) measures the strength of the US dollar relative to the currencies of its trading partners. Regulation Level Health care sector is subjected to high level of regulation from both government and private trade associations. Nutrition Industry-specific regulation is expected to increase in 2017. Generic pharmaceutical industry is also influenced by regulation level. Increased compliance requirements place additional pressure on companies, reducing the average profit margin Source: IBIS World, K
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Financial Analysis
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Operating Profit Before Tax
Financial Analysis Sales Revenue Operating Profit Before Tax Source: Capital IQ
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Financial Ratios & Dupont Analysis
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Valuation
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Valuation-Comparable Comps
Boston Scientific Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices for use in various interventional medical specialties worldwide. It operates through three segments: Cardiovascular, Rhythm Management, and MedSurg. The company offers interventional cardiology products. In addition, the company offers cardiac rhythm management devices. Mkt. Cap($MM)- 36,088 Rev.($MM)- 8,386.0 EBITDA($MM)- 2,201.0 P/E x Baxter International Inc. provides a portfolio of renal and hospital products. The company operates through two segments, Hospital Products and Renal. Hospital Products segment manufactures intravenous (IV) solutions and administration sets and also provides products and services. The Renal segment provides products to treat end-stage renal disease and products for various treatment continuums. Mkt. Cap($MM)- 35,703 Rev.($MM)- 10,163.0 EBITDA($MM)- 1,972.0 P/E-7.3x Danaher Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets professional, medical, industrial, and commercial products and services worldwide. The Life Sciences segment provides laser scanning, compound, and surgical and other stereo microscopes. Its Diagnostics segment provides chemistry, immunoassay, microbiology, and automation systems. Mkt. Cap($MM)- 65,637 Rev.($MM)- 16,882.4 EBITDA($MM)- 4,115.4 P/E-30.6x Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, researches and develops, manufactures, and sells various products in the health care field worldwide. It operates through three segments: Consumer, Pharmaceutical, and Medical Devices. Mkt. Cap($MM)-374,313 Rev.($MM)-71,890.0 EBITDA($MM)- 24,964.0 P/E-23.5x Source: Yahoo Finance, Capital IQ
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Valuation-Comparable Comps
ABT grows rapidly in 2017 with moderate efficiency. The gross margin is relatively steady. Source: Capital IQ
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Valuation-Comparable Comps
$ 41 - $ 43 Source: Capital IQ
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Valuation-DCF Revenue Assumptions Source: Annual Reports 2013-2016
$, in millions $, in millions $, in millions $, in millions Source: Annual Reports
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Discount Rate Calculation
Valuation-DCF Revenue Assumptions $, in millions $, in millions Discount Rate Calculation DCF Result Cost of Equity Return Monthly 1.03% Return Yearly 12.34% Regression Coefficients Beta 1.64 Risk free rate 2.50% S&P 500 return 8.17% CAPM 12% WACC 10.2% Add: Risk Premium 0% Discount Rate Price Calculation Enterprise Value $80,004 Debt 20,681 Equity Value $59,323 Total common Shares 1,477 Share price $ Source: Annual Reports
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Recommendation
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Recommendation Range: $40 - $43 Current Price: $54.71 Generics
Valuation Reasons Recommendation Range: $40 - $43 Current Price: $54.71 Generics Exchange Risk Government Regulation Little room to improve efficiency Sell 400 market
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