1. Office of Hydrologic Development
Gary Carter
Director
NOAA Hydrology Program Manager
October 2004
Together, we develop and deliver valued science, software and information for river and water resource forecasts to save lives and property, manage water resources, and enhance America’s economy
11/13/2018

2. River Forecasting Challenges: Conceptual Catchment Representation
Rainfall
Evapo-
transpiration
Infiltration
Fast flow
Soil moisture storage
Slow flow
Percolation
Base flow
Groundwater storage
Total flow
11/13/2018

3. National River Forecast System
Ensemble Streamflow
Calibration System (CS)
Prediction (ESP) System
Calibration
(Hydrologic
and
Hydraulic
Models)
Analysis
Analysis
window
Historical
Hydrologic
and
Data
Hydraulic
Models
flow
time
Operational Forecast System (OFS)
Real-Time Observed and Forecast Data
Hydrologic and
Statistical
Analysis and Data
Assimilation
Hydraulic Models
Analyses
short term
forecasts
Probabilistic
Short term to
Extended
current states
Interactive
Forecast
Interactive
Program (IFP)
Adjustments
11/13/2018

4. NWS Hydrologic Model Scales
National Products
Major River Basins
Forecast Points
High Resolution Analyses
11/13/2018

5. Office of Hydrologic Development
New Products and Forecast Assessment
Software Engineering for Field Operations
Data Collection, Assimilation, and Analysis
Precipitation Estimation Techniques
Hydrologic Modeling Applied Research
11/13/2018

6. OHD Hydrology Laboratory
Hydrologic Software Engineering
18 Federal and 9 Contract Employees
Hydrologic Science and Modeling
9 Federal and 18 Contract Employees
Hydrologic Data Systems
9 Federal and 6 Contract Employees
11/13/2018

7. Collaborative Hydrologic Research
Hydrologic Modeling
University of Arizona
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
University of Colorado
University of Central Florida
Hydrologic Research Center
Information Content
Colorado State University
Precipitation Estimation
Princeton University
University of Iowa
City University of New York
National Severe Storms Laboratory
Czech Hydrometeorological Institute
CUAHSI
University of California, Irvine
GEWEX America’s Prediction Project (GAPP; involves NOAA’s Office of Global Programs, NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center, NASA, Academia, etc.)
Data assimilation
Parameter estimation
Hydrologic modeling
Ensemble prediction
Forecast verification
11/13/2018

8. Science, Software, and Information Thrusts
Maintain and enhance current hydrologic services
Improve techniques for multisensor precipitation estimation for river models and flash flood threat
Advance hydraulic modeling and inundation forecast mapping
Develop ensemble streamflow prediction techniques for short-term river forecasting
Test high-resolution distributed hydrologic modeling
Implement river forecast verification methodology
Update precipitation frequency studies
11/13/2018

9. Web Based Precipitation Frequency Data Server
All products delivered
electronically (eGov)
Output suitable for design documentation
Point and click user interface
Graphs and tables
High quality cartographic maps
GIS compatible grids
Documentation
> 4,000 requests per month
11/13/2018

10. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Better flood warnings & water resource forecasts by leveraging:
observational data from Federal (i.e., USGS), state, & local agencies
higher resolution analyses & forecast information
well calibrated river models
enhanced software engineering
advanced hydrologic science
11/13/2018

11. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Major Program Elements
Description
Outcomes
Flash-Flood Services
High resolution modeling and decision support tools
Improve flash flood lead time and accuracy
Short- to Long-Term River Forecasts
Probabilistic streamflow predictions for 1 day through 3 months
Low-flow and drought products
Flood-Forecast Mapping
Prototype at River Forecast Centers
Collaborative Research
Extramural partnerships
Forecaster Training and Customer Outreach
Deliver information and engage new customers
NOAA’s Hydrology Portal
Provide nationally consistent information via the internet
11/13/2018

12. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Implementation Areas
Areas Completed Through FY 2004 (1,136 Forecast Points)
Areas Covered by FY 2005 National AHPS (386 New Forecast Points)
11/13/2018

13. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Flood Forecast Mapping
11/13/2018

14. Water Resources Challenges
A sustainable and secure society is one that meets its water needs without destroying the ecosystems upon which it depends or the prospects of generations yet to come.*
Over the past half-century, the scale and
pace of human influences on fresh water
systems has accelerated rapidly, along
with population and consumption growth.*
Worldwide water demands roughly tripled,
and, fresh water wetlands have diminished
in area by about half.*
At least 20% of Earth’s 10,000
freshwater fish species are now at risk of
extinction or are already extinct.*
*Worldwatch Institute (March 2004)
Water US Department of Interior
(potential water conflict areas; salinity
and international boundary issues)
11/13/2018

15. Water Resources Initiative
Objective: Nationally consistent, water and soil condition forecasts delivered via a national digital database
Outcome: NOAA’s water resources information and forecasts delivered to Federal, academic, and private sector partners for critical decisions related to:
Sustainable irrigation
More efficient power generation
Sensible, year-long water conservation plans
Rational allocation and distribution of water
More cost-effective river commerce
Protection of threatened and endangered species
Balanced terrestrial/aquatic watershed management
Enhanced aquatic habitats
Establishes a central inventory of users (industries, organizations, private sector intermediaries) and benefits for water resources information
Creates a Community Hydrologic Prediction System for the rapid transfer of collaborative research into operations
Builds on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service which delivers river conditions for discrete points along major rivers
11/13/2018

16. CHPS: Service Oriented Architecture
Encapsulation of data and algorithms makes it simpler to replace or insert new modules
Avoids central rebuild of entire system
Time from research to operations is reduced because adding new algorithm or data service does not impact existing services – regression testing minimized
Streamlined process to work with outside groups on new capabilities
Direct access to new hydrologic models and water quality modelling expertise within other agencies
11/13/2018

17. Water Resources Vision: Integrated Products and Services
High-resolution Gridded Water Resources Product Suite
Applications
Drought Mitigation
Flood Potential
Flood Management
Water Allocation
Transportation
Emergency Management
Agriculture
Ecosystems Management
Research
Partners
Precipitation
Soil Moisture
Evaporation
Groundwater
River Flow
Surface Storage
Runoff
NOAA
Federal Agencies
Tribal Agencies
State Agencies
Local Agencies
Private Sector
Academia
Snowpack Properties
11/13/2018