1. Reshaping the Medical Workforce in Scotland
Update to NDPIG – July 2010
Alastair Cook
Senior Medical Officer SGHD  

2. OUTLINE CONTEXT – MEDICAL WORKFORCE CHANGE IN LAST DECADE
PROJECTED MEDICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND
RESHAPING WORKFORCE IN SCOTLAND
ISSUES FOR PAEDIATRICS

4. UK MEDICAL SCHOOL INTAKES

5. Estimated annual retirements from NHS in Scotland and
England
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2036

6. PARTICIPATION RATES BY CONSULTANTS 1998-2008
SHOWN BY GENDER
0.7
0.8
0.9 1
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Participation rate
total
male
female

8. SUPPLY Vs DEMAND (AS DETERMINED BY PAYBILL)

9. RESHAPING MEDICAL WORKFORCE
IMPROVE PATIENT CARE BY INCREASING PROPORTION DELIVERED BY TRAINED DOCTORS
REDUCE RELIANCE ON DOCTORS IN TRAINING FOR SERVICE DELIVERY
DELIVER APPROPRIATE SKILL MIX ACROSS CLINICAL TEAMS
CAPITALISE ON THE “BULGE” OF TRAINEES POST MMC

10. ESTIMATED RETIREMENTS
THE BULGE
SPECIALTY
ESTIMATED RETIREMENTS
EXPECTED CCTs
PROJECTED OVERSUPPLY
EMERGENCY MEDICINE 10
138
128
ANAESTHESIA 70
311
241
DIAGNOSTIC SPECIALTIES 79
198
119
MEDICAL SPECIALTIES
184
546
362
SURGICAL SPECIALTIES
142
406
264
MENTAL HEALTH SPECIALTIES 95
250
155
OBS & GYNAE 27
163
136
PAEDIATRICS 33
153
120
GENERAL PRACTICE
550
1460
910
PUBLIC HEALTH & OCC. MEDICINE 41 63 22
TOTAL
1231
3688
2457

11. RESHAPING OBJECTIVES
WORK WITH BOARDS AND REGIONS ON MEDICAL WORKFORCE PROJECTIONS
CONSULT ON AND SET TRAINING INTAKE NUMBERS
CO-ORDINATE BOARD AND REGIONAL PLANNING OF TRANSITION TO RESHAPED WORKFORCE

12. PAEDIATRIC ISSUES BULGE ? COMMUNITY CHILD HEALTH
NES FIGURES 142 CCTS TO FEB 2015
TPD SURVEY WEST AND NORTH SHOWS ONLY 46 OF PREDICTED 59 (N & W) BY 2013
COMMUNITY CHILD HEALTH
178 (138WTE) SGAS DOCTORS AT 2009
ATTRITION – LOSSES AFTER ST1/2 TO GP OR OTHER SPECIALTIES

13. PAEDIATRIC ISSUES (LONGER TERM)
ATTRACTIVENESS OF SPECIALTY
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VERY SPECIALIST SERVICE, DGH SERVICES AND COMMUNITY
SUSTAINABLE WORKFORCE SOLUTIONS THAT ALLOW TRAINING QUALITY

14. SOLUTIONS ? NEW PATTERNS OF WORKING FOR CCT TRAINED DOCTORS
DECOUPLING TO ALLOW REPLACEMENT OF SGAS DOCS
TRAINING OF ACUTE PAEDIATRICIANS
TRAINING OF OTHER SPECIALTIES – GP, ACUTE PHYSICIANS, EM DOCTORS IN MANAGING PAEDS EMERGENCIES
MULTIDISCIPLINARY SOLUTIONS