1. Orlando MSA and the Next Economy: *
How Smart Energy Can “Recession-Proof” the Region *
John A. “Skip” Laitner In Conversation with the City of Orlando Orlando, Florida August 7, 2017
* In the spirit and tradition of Nobel Laureate and former Caltech physicist Richard Feynman, in his 1959 visionary talk, “There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom.” See,

2. The Roadmap Ahead *
Reinventing the wheel with revitalized insights for a new economic development hypothesis
Understanding the wastefulness of energy
Exploring the surprising link between energy and the larger productivity of our economy
Reviewing the new momentum in Europe
Recognizing the scale of opportunity within the economy of the Orlando MSA
And ending with three concluding remarks
* With the usual disclaimers. And also with the understanding that any of the specific numbers reflected in the various thought experiments presented here are cited only for their insights and not for explicit prediction or projection of outcomes.

3. How Small Differences in Assumptions Can Make a Very Real Difference in Outcomes. . .

4. Question: Other than population, what may be the single largest contributor to environmental degradation?
Answer: The large-scale and inefficient use of energy.
Fact: The United States wastes ~85% of all the energy consumed within the economic process. Orlando MSA may have only a slightly improved rate of efficiency!
Result: That magnitude of waste imposes a large array of costs that severely constrains the economic process!
Conclusion: Perhaps the biggest and most immediate opportunity to ensure a more robust and sustainable economy is to quadruple or better our current 15 percent level of energy (in)efficiency.

5. 85%
85%
15%

6. Key Insight: The Energy Efficiency Resource Is Larger than Generally Believed or Understood
Typical Pre-1980 Forecasts
AEO 2005 Projection
AEO 2017 Projection
U.S. Primary Energy Use in Quads
Enabled by ICT, new materials, new technologies, and innovative behaviors
Catalyzed by Smart Policies, New Business Models, and Productive Investments
Actual Historical Consumption
Low-Energy Future Based
Upon 1980 DOE Analysis
Sources: DOE 1980 Policy Analysis, AEO 2005, AEO 2017, and Laitner Estimates 2017.

7. Recall again, the U.S. may be only ~15% energy efficient
The Connection Between U.S. Energy Productivity and Per Capita Income ( )
2015
1970
Recall again, the U.S. may be only ~15% energy efficient
1950
Source: Calculations by John A. “Skip” Laitner using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration

8. . . . For the long-term social and economic well-being of Florida?
A Very Preliminary Exploration: The Link Between Florida Energy Productivity and Its Per Capita GDP (1980 to 2015)
What might this suggest. . .
. . . For the long-term social and economic well-being of Florida?
Source: John A. “Skip” Laitner, Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates, August 2017.

9. Comparing U.S. Economic Projections and
Actual Outcomes: 2005 to 2017
$20,300 Billion GDP
~200 Million Jobs
$17,100 Million GDP
~195 Million Jobs
A 2005 Standard Economic Projection for 2017
The Actual Outcome
$14,115 billion GDP
~173 Million Jobs
Source: Calculations by Laitner, using projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration and other sources, May 2017.

10. Exploring U.S. GDP Trends 1950-2015
What might this chart suggest for our long-term social and economic well-being?
More critically, how might the inefficient use of energy and other resources account for a lagging economic robustness?

11. The 7 Ways Energy Productivity Can Improve the Robustness of a National or Regional Economy
It can save money and lower dependence on imported oil and reduce the potential of other supply disruptions.
It can minimize the volatility of energy and other prices.
It can boost overall economic productivity and job creation.
It will lessen health and other environmental impacts.
It will both lessen the threat of climate change and increase the opportunities for adaptation to shifts in climate patterns.
It will likely stimulate a higher level of innovation across all sectors—increasing the prospect for a resilient, a more durable, and a more vigorous economy.
It will demonstrate a very real leadership that, in turn, may catalyze other regions to develop a similar roadmap, with synergies that amplify benefits and further reduce the risks.

12. With emerging evidence and insights from Europe

13. Higher Level of Economic Performance
Elevating to a
Higher Level of Economic Performance
MRDH and Luxembourg:
‘Our world is in transition. We no longer live in an era of change, but are witnessing the change of an era. We are on the verge of the greatest social and economic challenge since the 19th century. Global trends like climate change, geopolitical changes, increasing migration, growing inequality, natural resource depletion (lagging rates of resource productivity) and the emergence of disruptive technological innovations are driving the transition to a systemic change. We need to anticipate this change that will fundamentally alter the way we manage, power and move our society.’
MRDH Roadmap Next Economy, February 2017
‘Today, a transition toward the Third Industrial Revolution is underway, and Luxembourg is the first country to get prepared at the national level. During the forum, different parts of the Grand Duchy’s national strategy will allow you to discover how the country enrolls in the co-construction of this new sustainable economic model.’
IMS Luxembourg, November 2016

14. With a Bit of Added Context
In his best-selling book, my colleague Jeremy Rifkin notes that any time you have a coming together of a new form of communication with a new form of energy, you’ve laid the foundation for an industrial revolution:
The First Industrial Revolution – corresponding to use of print media and coal/steam energy
The Second Industrial Revolution – telegraph and telephone coupled with the internal combustion engine and electricity generation
And the emerging (but not at all guaranteed) Third Industrial Revolution?
A buildout of infrastructure that relies on interactive communications and distributed clean energy technologies anchored by large-scale energy productivity.

15. Who Is Acting How on These Ideas?
Both Luxembourg (population 576,000) and MRDH (Metropolitan Region Rotterdam/Den Haag 2.3 million). . .
Working with Rifkin, and our partners at Navigant Consulting and Fraunhofer Institute, we crafted strategic plans (Roadmap Next Economy) that propose to double the U.S. rate of energy productivity by All remaining energy needs are to be provided by renewable resources.
With significant upgrades to public infrastructure, energy efficiency upgrades, and the deployment of renewable energy technologies, by 2050 the plans anticipate a cumulative total investment roughly equal to one year’s GDP. For the Orlando MSA that might equal ~$100 billion.
The result is a more resilient, robust and sustainable economy that also increases the net gains in jobs.

16. An alternative, but very real, perspective on the use of energy to power our economy

17. RNE Industrial Infrastructure Current Industrial Infrastructure
Exploring the MRDH Energy Productivity Link as it Increases the RNE Per Capita GDP
RNE Industrial Infrastructure
Current Industrial Infrastructure

18. A Surprising Comparison – Florida Energy Expenditures and State Tax Collections
The Florida Legislature authorized about $37 billion in tax collections in 2015.
However, the State’s various energy bills – whether cooling its homes, lighting our schools, powering our industries, or commuting to work – meant that citizens and businesses spent about $57 billion for energy use.  
Florida might benefit more by looking for smart, cost-effective ways to reduce energy costs than by worrying only about ways to cut the cost of government. 
Indeed, the energy cost savings would stimulate many more net economic benefits and jobs for all taxpayers.

19. What Might This Mean for Orlando MSA?
A thought experiment to explore the transition at scale in the Orlando area – the impact of Disney World on Florida.
Floridians now spend ~$2,800 per capita on all energy uses.
In Orlando area? An annual expenditure of ~$6.5 billion.
If change by just 40%? A savings of $2.6 billion/year.
If we imagine an average payback of 10 years – less for conservation and energy efficiency, perhaps a bit more for renewable energy technologies, then we might require. . .
A cumulative investment of $26 billion between now and 2050, or about $780 million per year.
That level of investment and its eventual energy bill savings might mean a net gain ~65,000 jobs within Orlando MSA! *
* Recalling the disclaimer that the thought experiment presented here is for its
insights rather than for specific recommendations or projection of outcomes.

20. So this question: How do we minimize future unexpected and potentially negative outcomes?

21. Turning Existing Reality into New Opportunity
“Individuals have a natural tendency to choose from an impoverished option bag. Cognitive research in problem solving shows that individuals usually generate only about 30 percent of the total number of potential options on simple problems, and that, on average, individuals miss about 70 percent to 80 percent of the potential high-quality alternatives (emphasis in the original).”
Dr. Jeffrey S. Luke
Catalytic Leadership: Strategies
for an Interconnected World, 1998

22. The Luxembourg Future Cost of Energy Services

23. What If Orlando MSA Acted Like Luxembourg?*
What If Orlando MSA Acted Like Luxembourg?
The Average Annual Payments for Energy Services, 2017 through 2050
With perhaps a net gain of 65,000 more jobs
and a $2,100 Million stronger GDP!
But also a more resilient and recession-proof economy
* Recalling the disclaimer that the thought experiment presented here is for its
insights rather than for specific recommendations or projection of outcomes.

24. Declining Growth in Electricity Sales as a Lost Market that Should Be Tapped. . .
Lost Utility
Market Share in the U.S.
Value-added services!
Electricity sales. . .
Source: John A. “Skip” Laitner using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, April 2017.

25. Perhaps Our Ultimate Economic and Energy Efficiency Resource?
Recalling the comment of early Twentieth Century UK essayist, Lionel Strachey, who remarked: “Americans guess because they are in too great a hurry to think.”
Jerry Hirschberg, founder and former CEO of Nissan Design, who noted that: “Creativity is not an escape from disciplined thinking. It is an escape with disciplined thinking."
And Henry Ford once said, “Thinking is the hardest work there is which is the probable reason why so few engage in it.”

27. The difficulty lies not with the new ideas, but in escaping the old ones. . .
John Maynard Keynes

29. Contact Information
John A. “Skip” Laitner
Principal Economist and Consultant
Economic and Human Dimensions Research Associates
Tucson, Arizona 85750
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